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If you are sure that the Ethereum project will fail, I'd be happy to take on bets 1 : infinity. I pay you $1 if the project is no longer around, say 10 years fr

by qwtel 11y ago

If you are sure that the Ethereum project will fail, I'd be happy to take on bets 1 : infinity. I pay you $1 if the project is no longer around, say 10 years from now, you pay me everything you have otherwise. It would only be rational for you to take this bet, since I'm offering you a free dollar according to your beliefs. EDIT: the intent here was to expose overconfidence and vague predictions, not pay fan service to ethereum or suggest an actual bet. if anybody is interested in how to make proper predictions, I recommend the books by Philip Tetlock, especially the latest called Superforecasting [1]. EDIT2: I wasn't aware my views are so controversial, so here is some more background: If somebody was convinced something couldn't happen, he'd assign a probability of 0 to that event. If that person wanted to act according to her believes, taking on bets, no matter the odds, would have positive expected utility. Since almost nobody takes on such bets, it suggests that we generally over-exaggerate when we say things like "impossible" or "sorry for you loss", hence we are being overconfident. The other is vagueness. By not being clear about what exactly we are predicting, we're leaving the door open to back out of it later. In fact, Tetlock has found that, by making vague predictions, experts could later convince themselves (and others) that they were "close", skewing their sense of accuracy. Unfortunately, when subject to a prediction tournament with strict rules, they would score no better than random [2]. [1]: http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Prediction/dp/0804136696 http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-The-Art-Science-Predi... [2]: http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715 http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp...

mootothemax 11y ago
>if the project is no longer around You're offering a nonsensical bet. We live a world where people often delight in keeping obscure things alive. Even http://nyan-coin.org http://nyan-coin.org still has a following! As an illustration of what I mean, I'll be incredibly surprised if bitcoin ever truly dies, and the price ever truly tanks. I'd expect coins to remain above $100, as a few people will flat-out refuse to sell for less, and minimal trading will still take place. Anything in the "real" world though? naaaaah.
- qwtel 11y ago
  Yes, I have to admit it's vague. Price below $1 or not traded at all, would be a better condition. Maybe add some trade volume requirements as well.
  - mootothemax 11y ago
    >Price below $1 or not traded at all All it'd take is two bored people to stop this from happening, merrily trading just for their own delight. As with bitcoin, I'd be really surprised if any of these coins stopped being used entirely, thanks to tech enthusiasts keeping them alive.
    - qwtel 11y ago
      Generally, there has to be some condition on which to judge the success of a project.
      - mootothemax 11y ago
        >Generally, there has to be some condition on which to judge the success of a project. So why not try offering a bet on the success of a project, rather than going through the horror of trying to prove a negative?
  - pavel_lishin 11y ago
    Debating the exact rules of this bet is already not worth a dollar of anyone's time.
- n_mca 11y ago
  That was part of the point...
  - mootothemax 11y ago
    >That was part of the point... Not really; my point was that some things never die, however functionally useless they become. The top comment said that Eth will become functionally useless, and the bet offered didn't involve it becoming functionally useless.
nibs 11y ago
The bet would be joosters gets a dollar for every dollar short of break-even the Ethereum industry is, and you get one for every dollar it creates in surplus. Or you can change to order of magnitude, to make it more viable.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
bachback 11y ago
if you would like to sell me ETH put options, let me know how we can arrange that deal.
- qwtel 11y ago
  The bet was a rhetorical device intended to show the impossibility of having definitive views about the future while refusing to accept bets of the form 1 : inf. I appreciate the offer though ;)
imtringued 11y ago
>If you are sure that the Ethereum project will fail, >the project is no longer around You should work on your reading comprehension. The parent never made these claims. Whose beliefs are you even talking about? Saying something is not useful and not practical is not the same as saying it will fail or stop existing. The only thing you're doing here is psychologically manipulating someone into accepting a bet with conditions you yourself chose that are clearly in your favour. You didn't even define what the vague phrases "the Etherum project will fail" or "the project is no longer around" is even supposed to mean. The betting conditions are effectively "give me everything you have when I feel like it".
- qwtel 11y ago
  > [intent was not] suggest an actual bet

by qwtel 11y ago

mootothemax 11y ago

>if the project is no longer around You're offering a nonsensical bet. We live a world where people often delight in keeping obscure things alive. Even http://nyan-coin.org http://nyan-coin.org still has a following! As an illustration of what I mean, I'll be incredibly surprised if bitcoin ever truly dies, and the price ever truly tanks. I'd expect coins to remain above $100, as a few people will flat-out refuse to sell for less, and minimal trading will still take place. Anything in the "real" world though? naaaaah.

qwtel 11y ago
Yes, I have to admit it's vague. Price below $1 or not traded at all, would be a better condition. Maybe add some trade volume requirements as well.
- mootothemax 11y ago
  >Price below $1 or not traded at all All it'd take is two bored people to stop this from happening, merrily trading just for their own delight. As with bitcoin, I'd be really surprised if any of these coins stopped being used entirely, thanks to tech enthusiasts keeping them alive.
  - qwtel 11y ago
    Generally, there has to be some condition on which to judge the success of a project.
    - mootothemax 11y ago
      >Generally, there has to be some condition on which to judge the success of a project. So why not try offering a bet on the success of a project, rather than going through the horror of trying to prove a negative?
- pavel_lishin 11y ago
  Debating the exact rules of this bet is already not worth a dollar of anyone's time.
n_mca 11y ago
That was part of the point...
- mootothemax 11y ago
  >That was part of the point... Not really; my point was that some things never die, however functionally useless they become. The top comment said that Eth will become functionally useless, and the bet offered didn't involve it becoming functionally useless.

nibs 11y ago

The bet would be joosters gets a dollar for every dollar short of break-even the Ethereum industry is, and you get one for every dollar it creates in surplus. Or you can change to order of magnitude, to make it more viable.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

bachback 11y ago

if you would like to sell me ETH put options, let me know how we can arrange that deal.

qwtel 11y ago
The bet was a rhetorical device intended to show the impossibility of having definitive views about the future while refusing to accept bets of the form 1 : inf. I appreciate the offer though ;)

imtringued 11y ago

>If you are sure that the Ethereum project will fail, >the project is no longer around You should work on your reading comprehension. The parent never made these claims. Whose beliefs are you even talking about? Saying something is not useful and not practical is not the same as saying it will fail or stop existing. The only thing you're doing here is psychologically manipulating someone into accepting a bet with conditions you yourself chose that are clearly in your favour. You didn't even define what the vague phrases "the Etherum project will fail" or "the project is no longer around" is even supposed to mean. The betting conditions are effectively "give me everything you have when I feel like it".

qwtel 11y ago
> [intent was not] suggest an actual bet