qqqwerty

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361.
by qqqwerty 6y ago
A tangential point, but I don't think a WPA style program would be feasible today. Most modern infrastructure projects are complex enough that they require experienced contractors. Additionally, job training programs can be problematic
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by qqqwerty 6y ago
Or it trickles back up to wall street: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/singl...
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by qqqwerty 6y ago
I wouldn't count on it. The mortgage market is divided between conventional and jumbo loans[1]. Any bail outs will likely focus on conventional mortgages. The current administration seems to relish in screwing over blue states, and th
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
> I am suggesting that you are preferring a rate based on an even more biased method, because the method yields a bigger number. What method? I merely stated that PCR has limitations, I never said I was using it to calculate IFR. For the
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Anyone worth arguing with acknowledges the limitations of the PCR testing. You are essentially suggesting that we ignore the limitations and biases of these serological surveys. If a handful of internet denizens can quickly point out method
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Or better yet, do a simple survey and ask the participants how frequently they go to the grocery store. And if you see a correlation between frequency and infection rate, then try and adjust your weights accordingly. These bias issues are w
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
I am not interpreting it that way, I believe in the consensus estimates. The parent commenter (articbull) thinks these serological studies (SC, LA, and to a lesser degree NY) prove that the IFR is much lower than we thought because the actu
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
> If you miss a constant percentage of cases We are talking about 1 serological study at a single point in time. We have no idea what percentage of cases we were missing before or after that point.
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
You can't have it both ways. If IFR is low, then that means R0 is way higher than we thought, which also means isolating only the vulnerable will not work. The fact is, the number of deaths is too high in NYC to be able to cherry-pick
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
The R0 value impacts herd immunity %. So if NYC is already at 50%, then it means R0 is much higher than we thought, which means herd immunity would probably be as high as +90%. With numbers like that, not shutting down would result in the
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Yeah, that is still an issue. You can offer compensation to incentivize participation. And you can pre-select your sample (instead of random door-to-door) and require multiple follow ups with the selected persons to reduce nonresponse bias.
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
The only good news that I am getting out of this, is that NYC seems to have avoided the dreaded 3-5% fatality rate that was the presumed worse case scenario (massive community spread, overloaded healthcare system). But the lockdown likely h
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
I think almost everyone you are debating in this thread would support opening things up provided a few conditions were met. The primary condition for most of us is we need adequate testing and contract tracing capacity. And the reason that
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
No tin foil hat required. This is exactly what they are trying to do[1]. [1] https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/04/20/trumps-reelect...
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
And there are big differences in social cohesion between countries. Voluntary efforts appear to be sufficient in Sweden precisely because there is a high level of compliance. In the meantime, the coastal town that I live in is getting swarm
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
I used to work on survey designs in my old job. I am having a hard time coming up with a way that they could possibly control for selection bias. We are in the middle of a pandemic, the people willing to risk leaving their homes to get tes
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
New York, Italy and Wuhan are all the evidence you need. The virus is perfectly capable of overwhelming local health care systems, at which point shut downs are the only responsible option.
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
The money spent on smartphones and videogames results in revenue for companies and paychecks for employees. So yeah, some people are going to spend their UBI irresponsibly. But that spending directly and immediately stimulates the economy.
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
This video was published on January 23rd. At that point, China had less than 1k confirmed cases and less than 30 deaths. I agree with the sibling commenter, this was a very reasoned and factual video, especially considering the information
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Are we talking about the same people and same area? You mentioned the top 30% of tech companies. Those folks aren't living in the far flung suburbs in the East Bay. They are living in SF and on the Peninsula, where median home prices
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Stock options and RSU's are a big part of the compensation packages for that group. So lower stock prices are essentially pay cuts. And unlike 2008, many of these companies are more mature and much more exposed to the broader economy.
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
And yet you did not address the issue that the health care systems will collapse. Why are you (and many others) ignoring that outcome? Everyone seems to get tied up in the % of fatalities. Debating those numbers are a waste of energy, every
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
Fact check: Almost all health experts and political leaders agreed with (or did not publicly oppose) implementing travel restrictions[1], and the xenophobic remarks were being taken out of context, and are likely aimed at Trump's attem
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
While I agree that the NOAA data is hard to work with, these more 'polished' api providers come with their own set of risks. For example, Dark Sky is forecasting a snow storm in my Bay Area coastal town[1]. That seems unlikely. A
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
The loan can only be used on qualified expenses, roughly rent, payroll, and utilities. And there is a $100k cap on qualifying salaries. So in the hypothetical scenario where revenue goes to 0, the owner can only use the money to pay their o
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
The max loan is $10M though. And the amount of the loan is based on 2.5x the average monthly payroll costs for the year prior to the application date. So it seems like there are a few loopholes: a) If you have monthly payroll that is highe
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
And they are entirely ignoring the impact of this virus on our healthcare workers. Due to high exposure levels to the virus, they are at much higher risk of not just getting infected, but also developing higher severity of the disease. We
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
This also struck me as odd. The only reason I can think of doing something like this is that maybe it is pre-tax? So instead of paying a salary which triggers payroll and income taxes, they defer the salaries and dump the money into investm
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
I think you are looking at this from SF/SV centric point of view. The correct solution to the problem to high housing costs is to build more housing, not lower everyones income. Here is another angle to look at the issue from. We have
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by qqqwerty 7y ago
I too am interested in this. My uneducated guess is that there are very severe liquidity issues, so everything and anything is getting sold. Isn't that why the Fed is doing the repo operations? And I guess another possibility is that

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