pbourke

73 ms·

751.
by pbourke 7y ago
HIMSS is a healthcare conference? That’s rather ironic.
752.
by pbourke 7y ago
> US pneumonia rates are under very close scrutiny Do you have a source for that? I know that there is a nationwide flu surveillance system run by CDC, and it has indicated that most states are at or near peak - is that what you’re refer
753.
by pbourke 7y ago
I think China was looking at an existential threat to the government, and so made a calculation to trade a recession for survival. Their response was unprecedented, brutal and effective. I think it goes beyond face - lying at this stage wou
754.
by pbourke 7y ago
Interesting data points from today's presser with Dr. Bruce Aylward of WHO[1]: "Aylward pointed to an analysis from Guangdong province suggesting that, at least there, most of the infections were coming to the attention of health
755.
by pbourke 7y ago
There was a study[1] released by China CDC that tracked 44,000 patients to 11 Feb. They found zero deaths under age 9, with 416 cases. The study doesn't load for me, so here's the wayback link[2]. [1] http://weekly.chin
756.
by pbourke 7y ago
1. Come up with the vaccine 2. Test vaccine on animals 3. Prove to regulators vaccine is safe enough for limited human trials 4. Conduct limited human trials 5. Research effectiveness of vaccine / absence of side effects 6. Conduct bro
757.
by pbourke 7y ago
The epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
758.
by pbourke 7y ago
> Therefore everyone working to slow the spread of the virus will aid healthcare throughput and save the maximum amount of lives. "Do Your Part: Work From Home!"
759.
by pbourke 7y ago
At the outset you said this: > Before implying that Canada has the final answer to health care You are the only person who's brought this up. I literally said "it's not perfect." Here's what it comes down to. Pop
760.
by pbourke 7y ago
> That's very much an ad hominem fallacy No, it would be an ad hominem if I said "the Fraser institute produced it, so you can safely line your bird cage with it". I didn't say that, I just pointed to the institution&
761.
by pbourke 7y ago
You are referring to the inclusion of Thailand? Major tourist destination for China, but only 35 confirmed cases. Just changed testing protocol to drop travel to China as prerequisite two days ago. We shall see, I suppose. That's all I
762.
by pbourke 7y ago
Monoculture and groupthink can act as defacto censorship. We are finally seeing some stories about COVID-19 break through to the front page and get some interesting discussion - it's taken over a month. If anything, the HN response to
763.
by pbourke 7y ago
> Vietnam is authoritarian and has contained the virus very well. The jury is still very much out on that. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia - give it 12-18 months before we make any categorical declarations about the
764.
by pbourke 7y ago
> To me, that isn't that much clear, to see how the AIDS was handled in the United States during the 80's. Do you know of an undemocratic country that handled AIDS better? The early AIDS epidemic response was absolutely terribl
765.
by pbourke 7y ago
Probably not. Most likely it's just become widespread there and they haven't been containing or testing. The deaths and serious cases are the tip of the iceberg.
766.
by pbourke 7y ago
> We could have stopped it completely with total travel bans There is no such thing in the modern world. The influenza pandemics in the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries couldn't be stopped, just mitigated. Just take the US - you'd
767.
by pbourke 7y ago
I also find it interesting that inside of the US, states are engaging in NIMBYism to keep evacuees from being quarantined. Alabama's senator boasted of this yesterday, and I believe there was a lawsuit or something in California blocki
768.
by pbourke 7y ago
> Panic and hysteria should be avoided by being transparent, not by playing down the dangers or praising the efforts of an intransparent self-serving regime as the WHO has done from very early on. Yes. And the way to avoid it is to switc
769.
by pbourke 7y ago
1. the Fraser institute is a right-wing think tank. They very much have an axe to grind here. 2. "medically necessary" does not tell you anything about the severity of illness or appropriateness of waiting. There are many medicall
770.
by pbourke 7y ago
Yeah the messed up testing is very concerning. The US has done 500 or so tests in total. SK is ramping to 10,000 per day. I don’t think it’s clear when the US would be in a position to mount a similar response if needed.
771.
by pbourke 7y ago
There is ample proof of a connection to bats, including a 96% similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to a sampled bat coronavirus in Hubei province. Numerous papers, with ample evidence in that direction. Just not enough to speak definitively and categor
772.
by pbourke 7y ago
yep, downvotes as expected. God forbid we express any meta commentary about potential blind spots/biases in this community.
773.
by pbourke 7y ago
Just going to chime in with a slightly tangential issue. It's sad to see that many threads like this are being suppressed on HN (probably just from lack of interest). I have to use the HN search tool to find them. From what I can tell,
774.
by pbourke 7y ago
yep - this is the week we see shift from containment to mitigation in a number of countries. Some countries are ahead of the curve (UK from what I can tell) I expect some official language about "pandemic" from the WHO before the
775.
by pbourke 7y ago
They have been so far, and since they're part of the EU they have no reason not to be.
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by pbourke 7y ago
> An actually effective way pandemics can be stopped for sure requires an international effort and discipline... quarantined people must stay isolated from others and prevented from entering any country until the maximum incubation time.
777.
by pbourke 7y ago
These viruses have a reservoir in bats and they jump to humans through an intermediary animal. In the case of the virus that caused SARS[1], which was another coronavirus within the same family as the current virus of interest, there is som
778.
by pbourke 7y ago
> The rest of it is mostly economic fallout from secondary effects like travel restrictions and large scale quarantines(like the chinese have done). Unless you're in the travel and hospitality industry..theres probably little impact
779.
by pbourke 7y ago
> Maybe 70k cases of covid-19. This is almost certainly not the case. From the MRC Centre, Imperial College, London: "the team estimate only about 1 in 19 people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan are being tested for infection and the
780.
by pbourke 7y ago
> This is racism and irresponsible journalism “all but 3 deaths have been in China.” Why would you say that this is racism or irresponsible journalism? It seems like a simple statement of fact.

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