pbourke

66 ms·

721.
by pbourke 7y ago
> Wuhan is pretty developed. Yes, western countries should not deceive themselves about the standard of care. Bruce Aylward of WHO says that they rapidly scaled up to world-leading capability [1]: > they find cases fast, get them isol
722.
by pbourke 7y ago
> It will also likely have a severe impact on the market. Not just the market - the real economy.
723.
by pbourke 7y ago
In addition to this piece, there is this interview with Harvard Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch [1]: > Whatever the number is, it's gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that's what I t
724.
by pbourke 7y ago
What is wrong with this god-damned site? Seriously, this post was #25 on the front page, I check again and it's buried 4 pages deep literally 10 minutes later. Some people in this community are in really deep denial and do not understa
725.
by pbourke 7y ago
> It is also worth pointing out that not everyone can work from home A WFH-if-able policy would benefit them as well, because fewer people would be at the office, reducing their risk of coming in contact with the disease.
726.
by pbourke 7y ago
> a sensible in between panic bum rushing the store with black friday insanity and doing nothing but repeating the stupid Trump presser TPs Like following the story, figuring it’s an asymmetric risk event and getting prepared a couple of
727.
by pbourke 7y ago
Source for that 20%? WHO seems pretty convinced that the world should look to China as an example.
728.
by pbourke 7y ago
I wouldn't feel too sure about that. They estimate 150 - 1500 total infected right now. There would be substantially fewer even 1 week ago (R0 of 2, roughly 1/2 last week. R0 of 3, roughly 1/3, etc). It's possible the nu
729.
by pbourke 7y ago
My hypothesis has been a supply crunch simultaneous with a demand crunch. We are seeing substantially altered consumer behavior in China. If they are drastic, these events can make lasting changes in people’s willingness to spend money. If
730.
by pbourke 7y ago
I think they should be planning for a substantial fiscal stimulus. Something like a temporary expansion in medicare, guaranteed free testing, etc. A temporary expansion in funds for paid sick time. Expansion of unemployment benefits. Or jus
731.
by pbourke 7y ago
Yeah. Fed was able to intervene in 2008 because it was a financial crisis. This is a physical event that will affect the real economy. You can print all the money in the world, it won't make people go to the restaurant or buy a car.
732.
Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests(nytimes.com)
10 points by pbourke 7y ago|1 comments
733.
by pbourke 7y ago
Upvoting and boosting: There is strong evidence that the Seattle area is where Italy was a week ago.
734.
by pbourke 7y ago
It’s simple: large, non-essential public gatherings need to be cancelled. Especially if they involve substantial travel from attendees. It’s fiddling while Rome has caught fire to do anything else.
735.
by pbourke 7y ago
Perhaps Iran received an early transmission chain and is one or two generations ahead of most other places.
736.
by pbourke 7y ago
So Seattle is Wuhan in the last week of December right now
737.
by pbourke 7y ago
Most big chain drugstores sell a house brand pulse oximeter
738.
by pbourke 7y ago
Looks like doubling every 5-6 days. So a million cases in 35-40 days if trend continues?
739.
by pbourke 7y ago
Yeah I agree. It seems like many people have picked up on it. Much different than even a week ago.
740.
by pbourke 7y ago
“The train appears to be over a mile away from where I’m standing. Why would you think it would hit me?”
741.
by pbourke 7y ago
There are steps that can be taken now at the community and country level that will drastically lessen the impact of the virus. That is to heavily promote social distancing. Social distancing will flatten the epidemic curve, which means that
742.
by pbourke 7y ago
This pandemic will likely play out over a months to years timescale, so it very well might alter patterns like this.
743.
by pbourke 7y ago
We will know more when/if widespread serology testing ramps up. As I understand it, this tests for the presence of antibodies for the coronavirus and thus gives a snapshot of recent infections across the population.
744.
by pbourke 7y ago
The Obama administration did a number of things right in response to the Ebola epidemic. They quickly ramped up US capacity to treat Ebola patients, delivered substantial resources (people and money) to affected countries, established a pre
745.
by pbourke 7y ago
Can you ask your family member why she thinks China is destroying their economy over this?
746.
by pbourke 7y ago
And possibly one in the Seattle metro area - there is an 8pm PT presser with King, Snohomish and Washington State Public Health officials this evening. https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1233587757198405632?s=..
747.
by pbourke 7y ago
Not to mention that political leadership and one corner of the media is throwing chaff in the air and blaming the Democrats and mainstream media for sensationalizing the virus. Trust, which is absolutely key to having the population take ac
748.
by pbourke 7y ago
> The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other government's realize the danger of excessive offshoring. Remains to be seen. I think they have pulled off an enormous feat in slowing the virus as they have.
749.
by pbourke 7y ago
> taking extremely disruptive steps to minimize spread of the virus is only worthwhile (in any sense) if it actually works China has demonstrated that disruptive steps have flattened the epidemic curve. > having those people die despi
750.
by pbourke 7y ago
People who hold the above opinion, can you explain what makes you confident in your position, given that it’s in opposition to essentially the entire worldwide public health community?

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