orionsbelt

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61.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
So can humans? I can ask a human to draw Mickey Mouse or Superman, and they can! Or recite a poem. Some humans have much better memories and can do this with a far greater degree of fidelity too, just like an LLM vs an average human. If you
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
Anecdotally, that generally seems to make things worse, not better.
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
I haven’t tried it, and I’m not sure how good it is currently in terms of actually therapeutic benefit, but I would guess using OpenAI’s advanced voice mode, and giving it a good prompt telling it to play the role of a marriage therapist, w
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
Many people are using AI for therapy now. Even if AI gets as good or better than the average therapist, I think some people will prefer to see a human in person, so her job should be safe in that sense. But I wouldn’t be surprised if rates
65.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
You might be correct about LLMs. Let's say that you are. 40 years ago we were clearly compute bound. Today, I think it's fairly clear we are not; if there is anything a human can do that an AI can't, it's because we lack
66.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
It all sounds probably correct to me. Of course, progress could stall out, but we appear to have sufficient compute to do anything a human brain can do, and in areas, AIs are already far better than humans. With the amount of brain power wo
67.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1l1fi7a/gpt5_i... There’s been other stuff from Sam Altman that puts it around this summer, so even if it gets delayed past July, it seems pretty clear it’s
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
I think it’s too early to say they are not the leader given they have o3 pro and GPT 5 coming out within the next month or two. Only if those are not impressive would I start to consider that they have lost their edge. Although it does feel
69.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
At what point would you be impressed by a human being if you asked it to help you with a task every 6 months from birth until it was 30 years old? If you ask different people the above question, and if you vary it based on type of task, or
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
I highly recommend them. I don’t know what you mean by “trustworthy”, but they are a legit service and have way less dark patterns, upsell screens, charge less money, and are overall a vastly better experience than TurboTax.
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
Manifesting is not that wacky. Of course, you are not going to write down that you will win the lottery and then win. But most people are their own worst enemy and self limiting to some extent. Focusing on what you want in life, and affirmi
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
I just fed 4o and o4 mini a photo of my torso and gave it my height and asked it to estimate my body weight and body fat %. It was 20-40 lbs too low, so way off.
73.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
Yes, but I do think an organization like Coinbase or a cell phone carrier - which are extreme targets of fraud - have an obligation to recognize that their employees are targets and implement greater security measures than most organization
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by orionsbelt 1y ago
Who knows how this will play out, but user behavior is always somewhat sticky and OpenAI now has 400M+ weekly active users. Currently, I'm not sure there is much of a moat, as many would jump if, say, Google released a model that is 10
75.
by orionsbelt 1y ago
Saying LLMs have only incrementally improved is like saying my 13 year old has only incrementally approved over the last 5 years. Sure, it's been a set of continuous improvements, but that has taken it from a toy to genuinely insanely
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
Trump seems to have legitimately held this position for a longtime. Look at this clip from decades ago: https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1907456765215588734 I think he’s also surrounded by yes men who are afr
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
Why? I can understand the argument that this administration is wrong and will make things worse, but I don't think they are inconsistent arguments. The right seems to be of the view that a policy closer to Singapore is smarter than tha
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
The ID verification changes are limited to the following scenarios: 1. To complete the final identity verification step when initially applying for benefits. This happens only once in a person's life. 2. If one wants to change which ba
79.
by orionsbelt 2y ago
Do you not believe their statement that there is $100M of fraud? If you do believe it, do you think it is worth fixing?
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
I agree with you, and I don’t know where on that line the Columbia student with a green card that was detained falls, but I will say there were plenty of protestors in the US who were supportive of Hamas. There was a group in Chicago, for e
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
I never said it would be “fine”. If it is as bad as Covid, that would be millions dead. Perhaps it could be twice as bad. However, that is still a CFR of under 5%, nowhere near 50%.
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
Bird flu was not historically routinely tested for in humans except rarely in cases of severe illness. I don’t think it’s reasonable to believe the mortality rate, if it started spreading and was measured properly, would be much worse than
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
The media/left spin on this is cynical as always if not outright dishonest: 1. He never said he wants to "round up" people and place them in wellness farms. He said that if you are convicted a crime, this would be an alternat
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
See if your work place will let you install PowerToys, which includes FancyZones. It’s a Microsoft power tool (not third party), so they might allow it, and it has much better window snapping.
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
It's not about the money, it's for fun and/or belief in the mission. I agree with you for someone that has a miserable client-service job, such as an investment banker that is still slaving away so he can keep up with the Jon
86.
by orionsbelt 2y ago
It’s not one person despite the headline — it’s the Trump administration. The DOJ was prosecuting the case and that’s a federal executive agency, and there is a hierarchy where higher ups can direct where limited prosecutorial resources sho
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
And only one of them was a young woman having her face randomly shoved into the side of an arriving train rendering her a quadriplegic.
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
I think Direct File is great, but where is the $200 assumption coming from? A lot of the people using direct file (which is quite basic) were probably using free filing solutions or ones much less than $200.
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
Can you cite a source showing they violated ToS?
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by orionsbelt 2y ago
No - that’s true if you are trying to determine if you can write it off, but if you actually sell it back for $1, you can take the loss.

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