nl

6 ms·

61.
by nl 1mo ago
He makes very specific predictions about specific companies and they are wrong. You think we are in a bubble and that AI won't pay off for the companies investing in it. While I'm sure there will be companies that invest badly the
62.
by nl 1mo ago
> you realize industry + ecosystem (politics/reporting) is tulip mania It could be "tulip mania" or it could be "the internet". Luu analyzed the numbers instead of just reacting to hype. Specifically: >> Oc
63.
by nl 1mo ago
Luu's piece linked his analysis! Kurzweil scores 7% accuracy. If you scroll to the appendix he grades individual predictions. https://danluu.com/futurist-predictions/
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by nl 1mo ago
> multiple breathless press releases warning that the end of white collar work is "just 6 months away" I'd like to see an example of this. I think Altman and Amodei have been quite sober with their actual predictions. They
65.
by nl 1mo ago
This seems to be more a problem of your awareness than a lack of projects. Apart from every software engineer I know building almost completely with AI now there have been numerous projects posted on HN that are AI coded. There's als
66.
by nl 1mo ago
> /boost, ultracode and other magic incancations ultracode is different to ultrathink (because of course it is...) ultrathink was "throw more tokens" (it was a Claude feature that has gone away[1]) ultracode is "throw
67.
by nl 1mo ago
Surely by now everyone has realized that the human bias towards "there must be more to intelligence" is completely wrong?
68.
by nl 1mo ago
Politicians accuse China of many things. I'd note the lack of evidence presented there, at least in the part I could read.
69.
by nl 1mo ago
No, I'm discussing people living on the average hourly wage.
70.
by nl 1mo ago
Labor costs are orders of magnitude more than costs added by environmental or labor standards. The average hourly rate in the US is $42.50. In Vietnam is is $6.30, in the Philippines it is $5.40[1] These aren't people living in poverty
71.
by nl 1mo ago
> This was/is basically a strawman though. Like maybe "human input winning" was desirable for chess masters but for computer science wonks? Oh no! The whole field was full of people whose entire career was built around t
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by nl 1mo ago
> oh no, lost jobs and and dying economy! It worked for Australia (which has a fairly similar economy to Canada). It has led to a "Dutch disease" reliance on the resources sector in Australia, but that isn't radically diff
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by nl 1mo ago
Accusations of Chinese dumping are cheap and easy to make, but the evidence is pretty mixed. Most actual cases have been of raw materials (eg steel, yarn) and industrial chemicals. I think this is a long way from the alleged "tsunami o
74.
by nl 1mo ago
> Anthropic’s reputation was destroyed by this, Anthropic’s reputation was enhanced by this Fixed that for you. However it is true that there were some defence contractors who probably took Codex deals instead of Claude deals when this h
75.
by nl 1mo ago
> a large language model trained on chess commentary as well as being trained on millions of chess games would outperform stockfish which is only trained on millions of chess games Not really, if anything it's closer to the opposite
76.
by nl 1mo ago
Au contraire! https://mcpmarket.com/server/stockfish https://til.simonwillison.net/llms/mcp-in-claude-and-chatgpt...
77.
by nl 1mo ago
I checked this, and Claude says "it's a real term of art from Michael Feathers' Working Effectively with Legacy Code (2004), where he defines it as a place you can alter a program's behavior without editing in that place
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by nl 1mo ago
"shipped" was a pretty common term before AI though. It does show as 17x more common on github in this dataset but it was used a lot more in product management than in PRs previously.
79.
by nl 1mo ago
> Before everyone had the same 24hr in a day which despite inequalities grounded things a bit. Now some people can run 100+ near human ability agents while others are still wondering how to get enough calories for the day. Someone in Sud
80.
by nl 1mo ago
This is in response to a possibly (?) AI generated cover of "Like a Prayer" topping Australian radio play charts in July and ARIA deciding it was illegitimate. >But the track, released by Queensland-based DJ and producer Josh F
81.
by nl 1mo ago
Or they could move from highly subsidized models like the Deepseek 4 launch pricing. Launch price is just like any other price. It's just a price. It's impossible to guess what might or might not happen. Compare the price now.
82.
by nl 1mo ago
Why would anyone car what the launch price is? Comparing launch pricing is just an odd thing to do.
83.
by nl 1mo ago
There's a difference between the Deepseek.com provider lunch pricing and the pricing every other provider is doing now. Right now DS4-Pro-0813 is available from multiple providers for $1.32/million input tokens[1]. It's prett
84.
by nl 1mo ago
In computing "Pro" is not the opposite of "Consumer". Putting aside the fact it is a marketing label, "Pro" usually means "designed for work" while "Consumer" (in this context) means "d
85.
by nl 1mo ago
Define "soon" RAM production is completely sold out for 2027[1] which means the prices are locked in until after then. It takes about 2 years from the time ground if broken for a new fab to be built and producing RAM. There were s
86.
by nl 1mo ago
By 2023 Xi ordered the Chinese military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 . But that doesn't mean they plan to invade Taiwan by then. One common reading of it is that it was a plan to build up the military to that state with a de
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by nl 1mo ago
> it is _ALL_ about kicking the US out of the west Pacific I think you are underestimating Chinese nationalism here quite dramatically! Chinese views of sovereignty are quite independent of other concerns. Take for example their actions
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by nl 1mo ago
> CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan This whole idea of collapsing everything to some single semi-military geo-political concern is naive and not at all how the world works. Of course there
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by nl 1mo ago
Well... yes. I mean it's a nationalist ideology - any connection with reality is coincidental.
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by nl 1mo ago
Yes I was going to point to the Fomenko chonology too. I believe that has adherents in some minor Russian nationalist circles: > In September 2020, major Russian politician and academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Glazye

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