neilwilson

7 ms·

61.
by neilwilson 9mo ago
Has everybody forgotten that you can run multiple users on a computer, and if you set the permissions on files properly the agent can't read them? Agents are uses on a Unix-based computer that is capable of and indeed was designed for
62.
by neilwilson 9mo ago
You might want to read https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/00213624.2025.2... Which will disabuse you of the notion that we are "high on debt". "high on savings" perhaps. We can a
63.
by neilwilson 10mo ago
What the AI speed increase on Greenfield projects with modern stacks does do is reduce the cost of replacement. Expect to see more “replace rather than repair” projects springing up
64.
by neilwilson 11mo ago
I’m going to disagree with the premise. The value in AI won’t come from providing AI but from using it. The “knowledge cut off date” is 12 to 18 months ago for models, which essentially means that copyright has, in some ways, shrunk to that
65.
by neilwilson 11mo ago
Not when you take the circular economy into account. We’ve always been very good at making boilers. Less so semiconductors.
66.
by neilwilson 11mo ago
Remember that a therapist is really a friend you are paying for. Then make more friends.
67.
by neilwilson 11mo ago
The problem is that the analysis of the alternatives only ever takes into account efficiency and not resilience. Which is typical of “rational expectations” belief systems based upon atomised individuals. However the real world has politics
68.
by neilwilson 1y ago
I’m just glad I’m not the only one revisiting past structures that fell apart at the time because they involved humans. Now we have human like automation, everything needs revisiting.
69.
by neilwilson 1y ago
So the Chief Programmer Team structure [0] is back in fashion is it. But this time with agents. Fred Brooks has never been more relevant. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_programmer_team
70.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Not really the same is it. You are confusing a stock and a flow. Currency is exchanged for something material you have to give up. Government may indeed issue more currency, and does do so every day, but it is in exchange for something the
71.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Not like, say, houses then. Or shares in Nvidia.
72.
by neilwilson 1y ago
So high prices induce new supply in a market to relieve shortages and the “economy is in free fall”? Sounds like it is working as it should. Those with oversight fixing supply in response to price signals when the private system is unable t
73.
by neilwilson 1y ago
" it's paid by the Swedish central bank instead of the Nobel foundation" And those who pay the piper call the tune. Hence the brand of 'economics' that gets the gong.
74.
by neilwilson 1y ago
And the experimental evidence… https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LHFhnnTWMgI
75.
by neilwilson 1y ago
They are having a meaningful view that is misinterpreted deliberately by those with agendas - either anti government agendas or more free money agendas. Rising rates at long maturities is a signal of uncertainty. The market is wanting short
76.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Are you aware that is an impossible situation in the UK and that you should never listen to journalists or economists on this topic. They haven’t a clue what they are talking about. Look at the one month Treasury bill to see the actual situ
77.
by neilwilson 1y ago
That’s very likely due to the tyres having less tread depth - a common trick with EV tyres to reduce rolling resistance. Michelins are the main culprit. Of course the tyre companies love that little trick as they can pretend they are being
78.
by neilwilson 1y ago
There’s a big problem with that. The “deficit” is just the liquid financial savings of the private sector. The correct approach is to require all those people worried about the “Debt” to hand over any liquid savings they have in bank accoun
79.
by neilwilson 1y ago
That would be putting the cart before the horse. Foreigners sell you things in exchange for your currency, because they want to hold the currency. Once a currency is usable for payment in taxes, it can be analysed like any other commodity.
80.
by neilwilson 1y ago
However Economists tend to struggle with flow effects, and Noah is no exception. Trade deficits are exports of money as static savings, and that reduces money in flow within the USD currency area. Deliberately, as that is how neo-mercantali
81.
by neilwilson 1y ago
You mean like this http://www.primrosebank.net/computers/zxspectrum/docs/Comple... The Spectrum ROM is a wonderful program. The numerical evaluation system was unique. Every number could be replaced by an exp
82.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Every 'successful trial' is trumped by the far greater data set that comes from the widest 'UBI' trial of them all - state pension payments. That is a permanent payment to live on to a section of the population, except t
83.
by neilwilson 1y ago
If it was true why are the Chinese selling goods for foreign promises rather than collecting their own? Why would they take the exchange risk?
84.
by neilwilson 1y ago
There can’t be or China et al wouldn’t be selling their stuff for mere promises. People don’t swap bananas for apples. They sell them for money, and money is retained for its own benefit. Failing to treat money as its own exchange product i
85.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Don’t confuse desire with demand. Economic demand is desire coupled with the ability to pay. Nothing to do with dollars. The system is limited by world income. China is not going to send anything to people who can’t pay. Otherwise they’d co
86.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Only if you have a single supplier. For imports to be useful you need multiple suppliers all of whom have to have capacity to expand if one of the supplier lets you down. Same as in business. Industrial policy should decide domestic vs exte
87.
by neilwilson 1y ago
It’s amazing how everybody misses the wood for the trees. Where else is China et al going to sell all the stuff they can produce via their physical overinvestment that was driven by the “export led growth” mantra? There is no untapped sourc
88.
by neilwilson 1y ago
“I would have written a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time” Pithy and succinct takes time.
89.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Trust and Verify. The world has been full of snake oil salesmen since the dawn of time, all with a highly persuasive sob-stories. If you rely on shortcuts, like anecdotes or 'credentialism' for those who profess to be experts, the
90.
by neilwilson 1y ago
Isn’t that one of Dijkstra’s supposed comments?

More ›