neilwilson

9 ms·

91.
by neilwilson 2y ago
It’s like a state pension. Does anybody think paying the state pension increases the standard of living of those who don’t receive it? If it does why is there so much moaning about the dependency ratio?
92.
by neilwilson 2y ago
By selling stuff to Greeks and then not spending the money back with Greece. Same as the Chinese have done with the USA - except with a fixed exchange rate. You get the same within a country when the counteracting transfers are insufficient
93.
by neilwilson 2y ago
The other people in the fixed exchange rate area that don’t receive the transfer. So the Greeks etc. The same people that the Germans have been exporting their unemployment to for twenty years
94.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"You will have higher prices because stuff you buy is more expensive." Why? Why won't the supplier have lower income because they have no other alternative than to sell for the same USD amount as they did before? Why is the s
95.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Wouldn't that be their problem? Where else are they going to sell all that stuff given there isn't an untapped source of demand to absorb it (or that demand would already be serviced). So what you have is a production glut, and no
96.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"That’s supply contraction." What's the policy response to supply contraction causing people to lose their jobs? What does that tend to do to exchange rates? " it makes sense to offer discounts to other buyers" If t
97.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"You were arguing that the same number of dollars will get me the same number of goods and services, which is not true." In aggregate within a rational competitive framework. It is true for those that are rational and subject to c
98.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Was Bretton Woods in place in 1967? That's a fixed exchange rate system. What might have happened in 1971 that changed the way thing worked overall?
99.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Do your living expenses consist entirely of imports, and why would the price of that be going up given there is nowhere else for them to sell their stuff? Prices go up if there is scarcity and no effective competition for your purchases. Is
100.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"then to import things it's necessary to send more unwanted dollars" We're talking the USA here. Where else are those running 'export-led growth' going to sell their stuff? Where is the excess Argentinian beef
101.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Then explain the flaw. We have a floating exchange rate. Explain how it gets to your disaster scenario given the flows. The outcome has to come from the operation of the system doesn't it. So run through it.
102.
by neilwilson 2y ago
But that’s because you decided to take on currency risk without hedging or having a matched foreign income stream. That’s not what anybody with scale will have done. And now you have to reevaluate the cost of that service relative to the al
103.
by neilwilson 2y ago
How does it make them more expensive. Where else are they going to sell the already produced tomatoes? There is no untapped source of demand at that price is there. We already know from history that devaluations don’t work. What has changed
104.
by neilwilson 2y ago
They are not worth less in dollar terms. The same number of dollars will still settle next months mortgage bill, or tax bill regardless of what it may or may not exchange into Euros. And the exchange rate of barrels to tomatoes hasn’t chang
105.
by neilwilson 2y ago
It doesn’t cause the value of dollars to fall in dollar terms. Again you’re implying a fixed exchange and there isn’t one. The exchange rate of barrels to tomatoes hasn’t altered since that is a matter of productivity This is why “devaluati
106.
by neilwilson 2y ago
No it isn't 'capital flight' Noah - that's a fixed exchange rate concept. There are no fewer dollars in the US dollar currency area after the sale than before. Specifically "Normally, when Treasuries get sold off, p
107.
by neilwilson 2y ago
What age do you think that “feeling” kicks in and how do you “feel” about policy operating according to vague feelings? I’m old enough to have income generating assets but not enough to call it a day completely. Reduce the state pension age
108.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Particularly when they ignore the largest data set we already have - the state pensions. They are a basic income within a fixed exchange rate area by age rather than location. There are trillions of data points across decades of provision.
109.
by neilwilson 2y ago
The only aggregate alternative to holding T-bills is to hold dollar bank accounts. At which point the bank holds the T-bills instead or the Fed does as balancing assets to the account liability. It could all be refinanced to three month bil
110.
by neilwilson 2y ago
And the exchange rate is mentioned precisely zero times in that article, as is the current unused and underused labour in the economy. Instead it drops straight onto land which we can’t make any more of. Do it again with a factory that puts
111.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"someone owns the land" In England, only the King owns the land, and Parliament can deploy any resources in the UK it wishes by simple Act of Parliament. The only other thing there is is human labour, and that can similarly be dep
112.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Yup. That one. Managed to get on Question Time because he's very good at telling people what they want to hear.
113.
by neilwilson 2y ago
What's wrong? Full breakdown here if you're interested https://birchlermuesli.substack.com/p/copy-garys-badeconomic...
114.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Gary's angle is wrong. He's got a book to flog and a channel to promote. It's crystal clear we can build new houses and new businesses, so suggesting 'wealth' is a zero sum game is ideological folly. As to his thesi
115.
by neilwilson 2y ago
"If a game costs $10 to make in China" It doesn't though. It costs a certain amount of Yuan. About 70CNY Therefore to make the numbers add up now they need $5 to buy 70CNY Which means to make China a viable source, the exchan
116.
by neilwilson 2y ago
The biggest set of data points comes from the most obvious and widespread UBI - the state pension. Available to a certain section of the population That's how all UBIs thus far appear to work. You need a fixed exchange rate area where
117.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Not to mention non-ergodicity, path dependency and hysteresis.
118.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Given that's how all nations conduct war, it would be difficult to see how it could be done otherwise. Keynes' phamplet "How to Pay for the War"[0] is a good description of how the 'minting money' mechanism sho
119.
by neilwilson 2y ago
That misses the fairly obvious point that Russia uses Roubles, which it issues. If Russian Gas is sold for any foreign currency amount at all, then that is foreign currency it can use elsewhere. Russia can maintain the operational plant wit
120.
by neilwilson 2y ago
Scotland then :-)

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