nbnoll

6 ms·

1.
by nbnoll 7y ago
Not enough that I would feel confident publically stating. I think our best hope for accurate calibration would be to fit the data as it comes out (hence why we are focusing our efforts here) or to do a post-hoc analysis of a few examples,
2.
by nbnoll 7y ago
Yes I agree. We are working on this - albeit slowly. I think realistically we have an import parameters feature (obtained from the export) sooner.
3.
by nbnoll 7y ago
This is the next push for our modeling. We are trying to integrate live case count data to provide more accurate scenarios for people. Once we have that data we can try to fit a few parameters to improve predictions. I should note we are ac
4.
by nbnoll 7y ago
Yes I agree. However, I don't think we're close to the inflection point where this is relevant yet.
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by nbnoll 7y ago
It's all coded in typescript and javascript. I've been toying around with a more in-depth model in web assembly, but as I alluded to elsewhere in this thread, the coding is slow going.
6.
by nbnoll 7y ago
Yes, under the hood its a coupled set of ODEs with the ability to be stochastically sampled. But this means the entire susceptible population can interact with the entire infected population every time step w/ some small probability --
7.
by nbnoll 7y ago
I agree that having a more "realistic" model that simulates people's social interactions is important, especially as we look to predicting longer term effects. This is something that is on the long-term roadmap for our model
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by nbnoll 7y ago
No worries. I think it's also important to note that the Imperial College study that's gotten a lot of attention recently is an agent-based model - i.e. they simulate actual individuals - which allow them to look at specific quara
9.
by nbnoll 7y ago
All numbers in the table should be editable by the user -- apart from the fatality percentages which are computed from the values given. We've been working on the design to make this more obvious at a glance.
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by nbnoll 7y ago
In theory, the exponential growth rate of the virus doesn't depend on the population size. It more strongly depends on the population structure - i.e. the average number of social contacts made in a day.
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by nbnoll 7y ago
I just wanted to reply that the finite ICU capacity was merged last night and is now on the main webpage.
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by nbnoll 7y ago
Hi everyone, My name is Nicholas Noll, a computational biologist and co-developer of the above tool. As of now there are two other people actively working on this project: Richard Neher, Ivan Aksamentov, and I. Richard and I have a backgrou
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by nbnoll 7y ago
We are working on this! It originally started out just as a visual representation however now it factors into the model. Check out branch feat/hospital-bed-model
14.
Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model(neherlab.org)
291 points by nbnoll 7y ago|100 comments