myrmidon

8 ms·

61.
by myrmidon 2mo ago
This is misleading, because China has no gas, and they use coal power as dispatchable source with lower capacity factor (similar to gas elsewhere). Coal+gas electricity is basically the same fraction in China than in the US. But countries l
62.
by myrmidon 2mo ago
> The majority of federal government spending is a wealth transfer to old and poor people Sorry, but that's a ridiculous take. Thats just like saying that public schools are a wealth transfer from the working class to students, or t
63.
by myrmidon 2mo ago
Agree with this. As soon as things get in range for motivated amateurs, progress skyrockets. Has also been the case for things like chess computing; a lot of the progress we made over the last decades there (even before involving neural net
64.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
"Base load" is not an actual demand that needs to be satisfied. Providing base load is a privilege you get to enjoy if your marginal cost is lower than anyone elses (and you want/can keep running basically all of the time
65.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
> You're wrong. If we did that [spread manmade climate change over next millennium], meltwater water supply would essentially stop (in somewhere between 8 months and 2 years), everywhere on the planet. What exactly are you talking a
66.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
How do you know that human logic is any more/better/qualitatively different from the LLMs "predictive ability"? It's already pretty easy to find humans that are strictly worse at reasoning and logic than a decent LL
67.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Important for what? Not getting snitched on when comitting crime?
68.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Copper price is up ~500% since 2000 btw, this is already downregulating its use. Not sure what your benchmark for shortage is, but if we had similar price development with fuel people would've gone ballistic. It's quite possible t
69.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
This is not robbing. Undesired distillation is a ToS violation, at best. There is not even jurisdiction over Chinese companies, because they don't sell their LLM subscribtions, unlike US companies, and those comitted much more severe
70.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Are you generally happy with it? What do you mainly use it for? I'm kinda tempted by the frameworks because they are somewhat energy efficient and compact (which I both value highly!) but my concern is that the GPU is on the low end fo
71.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Anecdotally, lots of intelligent people I know like to pretend to be completely uninfluenced by advertising, which I think is delusional. In my view advertising is in big parts (your category 3) basically a constant side-channel attack ag
72.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Is this excluding maritime shipping? According to eurostat ( https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cac... ) that is two thirds of freight volume and it probably still eclipses even rail trans
73.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
> How much of that "decoupling" is actually just "exporting"? Some fraction certainly is. Here is trade-adjusted CO2 per capita: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capit... No
74.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
The reality is obviously more complex, and many countries have already managed to somewhat decouple economic growth from CO2 emissions (very good!), but as a crude approximation: More money => everyone gets more stuff => more CO2 em
75.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Agree on a lot of this but not AI; it's already aged like milk. In my view, you don't get to dismiss LLMs as "stochastic parrots" unless you can argue with precisely defined terms why you ain't one.
76.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Outsourced manufacturing is much less of a factor than people typically assume: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-or-exported-co-e... US numbers are insanely high because cheap hydrocarbons are locally availa
77.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Sure, but if you want dynamic loading from your c stdlib (which is defensible IMO), and you want the behavior/implementation to match with the loader, then you need some kind of coupling somewhere no? You could have a very slim libdl
78.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Yes. Would currently be "free" (<1c/kWh) around 1400-1530 tomorrow, and go up to ~15c/kWh at night. Fixed costs might distort everything significantly though.
79.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Quick numbers that I found suggest lifetime healthcare costs of >$300k even if you're 65 already (with current yearly spending trending more towards $600k-ish). So even with a (single) catastrophic event just paying yourself might
80.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Isn't that kinda to be expected if you want to provide dynamic loading functionality (dlopen)? Is the windows situation really all that different/better (with GetProcAddress in kernel32.dll)?
81.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
What would you want to hear from a non-American biased model in response? Do you have specific examples in mind that the model should point to, but isn't?
82.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
If you circularize the orbit at 550 AU (which is costly but possible, at ~1km/s of delta-v), then you end up with an orbital period of >10000 years (to complete your whole-sky survey in one plane ). But first-- the price to get tha
83.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
First: Orbital period out there is over 10000 years. And if you circularize (which is expensive to do in delta-v), you minimize the time window you have for observation (because you're basically pointing your speed vector straight to o
84.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
This is indeed an interesting perspective, but "constant 1g rocket acceleration" is not even an engineering pipedream, it's strictly fantasy territory.
85.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Adding to this: Those 190km/s of the Parker solar probe were, crucially, periapsis speed. This is a bit like bouncing a rubber ball from a building, measuring its speed at ground level and then going: "Given our fastest achieved s
86.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
There is no "building" such a thing. All we could do right now is send the "telescope probe" >500AU away, on the opposite side of the sun from the observation target, then hope it still works 80 years later or so when
87.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
I think its fair to argue that modern silicon easily makes up the difference with clock speed; neurons can't do Ghz things by design (signal propagation in biological brains is also really slow compared to copper). I'm pretty co
88.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Some aspects of the conjecture make sense and are observable: Consider e.g. Steam (digital video games): Prices are discounted over time because of "greed" (=> desire to sell the same product to customers that value it less t
89.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Not really. The main "purpose" for such information is to be published, and at that point it makes no difference who exactly requested it. Personal view: The current mainly governing party in Germany (CDU/CSU) is a bunch of i
90.
by myrmidon 3mo ago
Unlikely. This is him, at least according to that account: https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=georgehotz

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