monorailkitty

5 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by monorailkitty 15y ago

   I agree but set B is not a uniformly chosen subset of A in this case. That is the core of the trick. The rule for choosing B is intuitively uniform but actually slightly favours families with a girl and a boy over those with two boys.
2. 2.▲
   by monorailkitty 15y ago

   Yeah, what matters is the contents of the initial set of families over which we determine probability. "A man has two children, and one is a son born on a Tuesday. What is the probability that the other child is also a son?" If the man is r
3. 3.▲
   by monorailkitty 15y ago

   > I have two children. One or more is a son. Exactly one of them was born on a Tuesday. I'm not sure that's what you are supposed to infer. Looking at your earlier statement: > I have two children. Here is some information about one