mlyle

11 ms·

61.
by mlyle 4mo ago
> That is not in any way related to Fable (visibly) being switched to a less strong model if you’re trying to discuss certain topics. We're talking about it being invisibly moved to a weaker model if it looks like you're dist
62.
by mlyle 4mo ago
NAT was not designed as a security boundary. Sure, it may block some kinds of incoming traffic accidentally and as a side-effect disrupt some attacks. But why would you rather have an always-broken network that might block attackers inst
63.
by mlyle 4mo ago
We're finally getting there in the US, though. Top ASNs are >75% IPv6 capable. It's Optimum Communications and Frontier (my provider) that are really holding the numbers down at ~15% each. The latter is improving very slowly,
64.
by mlyle 4mo ago
And, again, the economics. The hypothetical Polish project cited in the paper showed a breakeven in 6.1 years... if one ignores time value of money and assumes it is delivered for the estimated cost. The annuity formula tells me that at a
65.
by mlyle 4mo ago
You gotta include 50k+ in power plus other expenses. Still looks like an ok return on capital, but you are betting heavily that cost of computing doesn’t fall much. If token prices fall a bunch then it may not even be worth leaving on, dep
66.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I am not making an argument about limits. I just expect some degree of diminishing returns. A related argument is speed of intelligence vs capability at that speed. You can think of a three way trade off between latency, cost, and capabili
67.
by mlyle 4mo ago
And claim they will keep bigger margins, despite needing to do all kinds of infrastructure stuff.
68.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Do the math on pumping 40C water any distance in a loop. It is hard to make it worth it. The water cools off and the pumping takes significant energy, plus the pump and all the piping cost something. Then using a heat pump on it makes it
69.
by mlyle 4mo ago
But none of any of those has grown at the pace from that large base necessary to justify this kind of valuation.
70.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Waste heat from power plants isn’t always useful because it is low grade heat… but it is still much, much, much better than the 35-60C water you could get from a data center.
71.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I would rather capital gains be taxed at income rates but indexed to inflation. I am fine with that being a fair bit more. But ripping off pension funds so you can tax me more, as a side effect of enriching people that engage in these shen
72.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Plenty of places to direct it. I can be upset both at those cheating -and- the referees. If SpaceX is such a great business, it should be able to win legitimately.
73.
by mlyle 4mo ago
We have plenty of fields producing just natural gas in the US. It is not merely a byproduct of oil production. Only about 35 percent is “associated gas” production from oil production.
74.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I am upset that it is not a great bet and that retail investors and pensions are being forced to take it. Let’s not pretend that this is not regulatory capture and financial engineering by techbros.
75.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Outgrowing GDP for awhile— especially from a smaller base— is certainly possible. It is much less likely to do it from a long time from already large revenue.
76.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I am upset that I am forced to either rebalance out of NASDAQ and incur significant tax consequences, or bet that SpaceX is about to become nearly 10 percent of GDP and keep exceptional margins while doing it. I would not voluntarily take t
77.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Depends upon the intelligence vs compute scaling law— which I think no one really knows. Pretty likely to be some degree of diminishing returns, but how much? Is it logarithmic, inverse quadratic, … If training models gets way cheaper, I
78.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Will it continue to appreciate to infinity? Maintain its value forever? Or will something else happen? The same argument you’ve made would work for tulip bulbs, dotcom prices, or whatever. Prices go up until they don’t. Exponentials don’
79.
by mlyle 4mo ago
SpaceX is important to launch and telecom, which are two big space verticals but not all of space. Further, space is just reaching the point it can really grow. Space is strategically important but perhaps not as directly economically valua
80.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I read it in context as being about the market prospects of genai. The problem is, when there is so much overinvestment, everything gets wrecked. In the aftermath of the dotcom boom there was at least a bedrock of fiber and still useful equ
81.
by mlyle 4mo ago
> Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI. I didn’t read it that way. I see a lot of value in it. I just don’t see us justifying the amount of infrastructure being built or current valuations. Or in the unlikely event that we
82.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Without a moat, P settles to MC. No one makes significant profit.
83.
by mlyle 4mo ago
It is also worth noting that others were helped, too, just not to the extraordinary level of a functional cure.
84.
by mlyle 4mo ago
It’s not that we can’t fix things— given enough time and resources. It is just that we need to fix too many things. Each thing fixed only makes a small difference to average uptime, and that will be true for a long time, unfortunately. We g
85.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Big reaction that misses the nuance in what I said. Can you read the sentence after the one you quoted?
86.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I don't know what the right answer is to people doing weird stuff in enclosed places with a captive audience is. The wifi name probably should have been ignored. But the incidents of people airdropping profane pictures to randos on pl
87.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Sure, which is why you tell people to turn the device off and only when that completely fails do you take greater corrective action. I do think we overreact on security matters, but I do think it's reasonable to not head over the Atlan
88.
by mlyle 4mo ago
I'm confused; AB2503 does specify some building standard changes ... to be studied and then adopted by 2032. We're talking about how it exempts many things from CEQA litigation. Since it's been less than a year, I'm not
89.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Terrorists doing completely stupid stuff, like naming a cellphone "bomb" that they plan to use to control a bomb is par for the course. Forgetting to turn off bluetooth is a plausible next mistake. Terrorists have a pretty long h
90.
by mlyle 4mo ago
Here's the options: - You have an actual bomb that's been slipped onto someone else's stuff that is cellphone triggered; perhaps when you get to UK cellular service, perhaps after cabin altitude + time, or whatever. Making t

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