mikgp

4 ms·

1.
by mikgp 6d ago
It is kinda crazy - I remember Elon musk showing off that you could play video games and watch movies in the Tesla. And there’s something super dystopian about the idea - When I was a kid basically four things governed the emotion you felt
2.
by mikgp 7d ago
I’m curious how Anthropic Pivot to biology will work out. I imagine the real world is much harder to manipulate than numbers/code.
3.
by mikgp 7d ago
Curious about this lawsuit - I assume that there are legal means to “collude” on safety. Car companies coming together to agree on crash test regulations will “slow down” auto manufacturing but I’m pretty sure this mechanism is legal. If
4.
by mikgp 8d ago
An assumption built into RSI is it speeds up iteration cycle right? I clearly don’t know anything about frontier model development, but in theory, you could have naive RSI with the right loop inputs right? But the assumption is RSI makes
5.
by mikgp 16d ago
A mental model I was thinking about was - I remember when Travis Kalanick was talking about using the chatbot to discuss “vibe physics-ing” on the all-in podcast. And like - I think there’s a presumption you could make that AI models could
6.
by mikgp 21d ago
The 70’s were arguably more Grim than today in life and film.
7.
by mikgp 1mo ago
None of them! That was my point. High prices is unpopular, and datacenters are unpopular, so I’m trying to figure out why 1 and 3 are written in the negative and 2 is written in the positive. I’m just confused that’s all.
8.
by mikgp 1mo ago
I’m trying to understand your position here. Resistance to datacenters is like wildly bipartisan popular the other two are inversely so. I assume you’re trying to make a satirical point, but what is it?
9.
by mikgp 1mo ago
I’m curious if something akin to the Streisand effect is going to take place here. It’s not like you can stop them from knowing about the rest of the world and it sounds like current efforts are heavy handed.
10.
by mikgp 1mo ago
I think it was Kara Swisher and guest who made the observation that the reasons social media as it currently exists may not be long for this world is that part of the reason these lawsuits and laws to restrict access to children are making
11.
by mikgp 1mo ago
“ I have repeatedly argued for strong antitrust enforcement to keep industries competitive, especially Big Tech.” Has David Sacks actually called for stronger antitrust enforcement? Not that he has total control of this administration but
12.
by mikgp 1mo ago
I think SWE fundamentals matter - because it will be a long time before software is a closed system. And the problem is that as long as humans are in the loop building software that dynamic will have to be maintained. We use Loki for loggin
13.
by mikgp 1mo ago
“Debuggable? It can add extensive instrumentation in seconds. None of this requires expertise, prompting, or mention of TDD. It's the default.” I’m pretty sure it takes some level of expertise just to use the term “instrumentation” cor
14.
by mikgp 1mo ago
It seems like, particularly in scholarly works, we should cite AI contributions the same way we cite a third party, with similar consequences around plagiarism. If you’re copying AI whole hog, not quoting and citing it, and not catching ba
15.
by mikgp 1mo ago
The point on Radithor seemed suss to me: “Introduced in 1918, Radithor was William J. A. Bailey's biggest commercial success, selling 400,000 bottles between 1925 and 1930. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued warnings against
16.
by mikgp 2mo ago
I don't know if this is sort of a nerds vs normies argument, but sometimes I think we get stuck on AI and not the simpler ideas it represents. Things are easier to validate in person so there's a sense you understand the context.
17.
by mikgp 2mo ago
On the one hand I want to believe in spec driven development - I think there’s this awkward gap between code and not code that is the cause of the sort of “code review crisis” that gets written about a lot. And But the reason you don’t hav
18.
by mikgp 2mo ago
I always find Superintelligence inevitability interesting. And the author dismisses George Hotz argument about supply chains and the way that in order for ASI to truly take off it has to dominate not just the world of bits but atoms as wel
19.
by mikgp 2mo ago
I think I learn a decent amount from AI so I’m legitimately torn on this, but I guess an analogy I might turn to would be something like “fork lifts are great! But don’t bring them to the gym to do your heavy lifting.” Cara are great! But
20.
by mikgp 3mo ago
I was accused of being AI a few posts ago. I think it’s hard get the cadence out of your head if you talk to AI a lot. Especially when making certain kinds of arguments. I was thinking about dropping a few more f bombs, maybe that would
21.
by mikgp 3mo ago
I think it’s a maturity model question, and an individual ability question. And maybe an industry tooling question. Individual ability? Newer engineers should read and write more code than experienced engineers. Maturity model? Teams with
22.
by mikgp 3mo ago
Slowing us down from what? In the context of many other measures I think speed is an important measure. Maybe even the key measure. I’ve even written a blog post entitled “reading code is an anti-pattern.” But if the metric is, slowing us
23.
by mikgp 3mo ago
The whole LLM development revolution has made me feel like I’m taking crazy pills, and this is one of those observations. And, as someone who does a decent amount of vibe coding - Are we really turning engineering into plain text and not a
24.
by mikgp 3mo ago
I don’t entirely disagree with this criticism, but it also feels to me like - progressivism is the flavor of modern bad studio films, but not a cause of bad media. Like going back to the early 90’s there was this incredible rash of bad film
25.
by mikgp 3mo ago
There’s something of a footnote in here that - raises a moral or even spiritual question. Scott says that one of the great things about superforcasters is that some people who regularly make bad decisions will be able to make better decisio
26.
by mikgp 3mo ago
> Why can't we have a red-queen's race where non-tech companies are implementing AI, but it's not increasing the total profits of those sectors, just meeting rising customer demands/fighting over the share of existing
27.
by mikgp 3mo ago
> How much do these models need to do before people throw their hands in the air and say, ok this is happening. It's quite interesting to me that your epistemology is basically "God in a box is inevitable" and not skeptici
28.
by mikgp 3mo ago
I mean he explicitly at the end says there will be a new era of prediction markets: "This, then, is my prediction for the AI superforecaster future: for basic questions, your off-the-shelf AI chatbot will be able to offer opinionated p
29.
by mikgp 3mo ago
I suppose on the one hand, I probably understand what this means? But I hate when guidance is totally verboten because like - “Babies should not be shaken at all in the first two years of life”. I think has a _significantly_ different impa
30.
by mikgp 3mo ago
It feels like Scott is taking the bull case here - but like “perfect” information will pervert markets in bizarre ways. As soon as the prediction market says “this path here has a 25% chance of curing cancer” all sorts of money is moved awa

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