marvin

89 ms·

961.
by marvin 7y ago
Just for clarity: Do you believe China would have reached the inflection point for this epidemic without their extreme social distancing measures? And at a similar death toll, and with the epidemic continuing to flatten towards an asymptote
962.
by marvin 7y ago
Just start a monthly savings agreement. Presumably you've barely put in any signifncant part of your assets. You're much better off than someone who has $400k in the market and might need it soon. In fact, starting your investment
963.
by marvin 7y ago
The scary part is the WHO mission were adamant that they failed to find a large number of asymptomatic/mild cases in the population at large, and they tested 300.000 people. I can't get this to match up with my other hunches, so I
964.
by marvin 7y ago
This looks like the numbers from the WHO-China joint COVID-19 mission. It likely overestimates the lethality somewhat. But even 1% is a big risk.
965.
by marvin 7y ago
You've arrived at the same order as my estimate of the real number of cases in Italy (I arrived at ~80k, see sibling comment), using a different technique. Yours seems more reasonable. But note that South Korea must inevitably have mis
966.
by marvin 7y ago
Here's my wild-ass guess: The percentage of lethal cases is actually close to 0.1% when the serious cases get the best care possible (my claim). If this is true, then Italy had 200*1000 = 20.000 early-stage cases 8 days ago. This yield
967.
by marvin 7y ago
That just doesn’t make sense to me. Uncontained, this disease will grow exponentially until tens of millions are infected at once, and it eventually burns itself out. But by then, the disaster will be obvious and we will have the same resul
968.
by marvin 7y ago
CDC’s lackluster response is absolutely confounding. One could suspect political involvement, but I can’t see who would stand to benefit.
969.
by marvin 7y ago
Doubling rate in confirmed cases is closer to 4 days than 3 unless you include only the last week or so. A doubling rate of 6 days in the medium term has also been estimated. This will obviously delay the time to reach one million cases. Ho
970.
by marvin 7y ago
I'm impressed by the Norwegian health authorities' response thus far, and society's receptability. We have 19 confirmed cases, and more or less everyone who has met a confirmed infected individual is (strongly) encouraged to
971.
by marvin 7y ago
The data indicates that most cases are in fact mild to moderate. Please don't spread misinformation. There's enough people stirring up a panic already.
972.
by marvin 7y ago
At least we won't be blowing up our infrastructure. "Rebuilding" afterwards should be quick.
973.
by marvin 7y ago
Disruptive self-quarantines serve a purpose even in the case of an out-of-control epidemic. The mortality rate isn't very high, but the number of hospital beds for severe cases are limited. Ditto the number of diseased people who can b
974.
by marvin 7y ago
Huh. In Norway they were acquitted. Same story. Seems like a significant difference in the law tradition.
975.
by marvin 7y ago
> you took it as "create a robot taxi" I didn't take it anywhere - this is the company's stated ambition. Timeline - meh. Everyone knows Elon Musk overpromises on super-optimistic timelines to drive his teams harder.
976.
by marvin 7y ago
Probably on the order of the number of taxis, delivery trucks and semitrailers in existence, plus some more to allow for increased demand when the cost of taxi transport gets closer to the marginal cost. It's a big potential market, an
977.
by marvin 7y ago
How would you react if say, within the next five years, Tesla actually manages to implement level 4 autonomy (geofenced to regions shown statistically safe), raises the autopilot cost to $30,000 and takes for themselves 40% of all revenue e
978.
by marvin 7y ago
This is a very fascinating discussion. NRK, the Norwegian national broadcaster also does this. NRK Beta, which experiments with new technology in broadcasting, launched a streaming service in 2007, which was the basis for the streaming offe
979.
by marvin 7y ago
New graduates don't get hired? That's the first I hear about this (recently) anywhere in the world. What's changed?
980.
by marvin 7y ago
This is less of a risk than it might appear. To be sure, it would be expensive to replace the computer part of the entire installed fleet. But the (potentially) full self-driving option is very richly priced, and sells with an incremental m
981.
by marvin 7y ago
Since 2006, in fact, if I remember correctly.
982.
by marvin 7y ago
One of the first times i paid with my iPhone, the cashier tensed up a little when I authenticated with FaceID before paying. I apologized for being rude by looking at my phone during the payment, but that I had to authenticate with it with
983.
by marvin 7y ago
> This happens because it's almost impossible to write a paper that includes every single detail needed to reproduce your work and fit within any journal's page count limits This is a big problem. Storage and distribution is fr
984.
by marvin 7y ago
"Start with your number $X+80%, then" Norwegian here: I've previously read self-improvement books written by Americans that state advice that gives me the same vibes as this one, specifically a feeling of this being a very ba
985.
by marvin 7y ago
What companies are those? Meaning, employing software engineers and paying 300K per year for roles that are not executive-level.
986.
by marvin 7y ago
This statement sounds rather ironic in a discussion that involves a .org domain. Although I'm sure country-TLDs can in principle do things that are much worse.
987.
by marvin 7y ago
Scandinavia, or even Norway, isn't an ideal for everyone. There would not be political consensus anywhere in the US, not even close , to the tax levels we have. Ditto regarding our interpretation of property rights (you're almost
988.
by marvin 7y ago
At this point, the problem with content subscriptions is ease of use and "fuck you, customer" experiences rather than willingness to pay. I'd gladly pay, say, $200 per year to never see a paywall or commercial and never have
989.
by marvin 7y ago
I found university more fulfilling than my 5+ years of full-time work, so I think your mileage may vary on this. Depending on what sort of activities you enjoy.
990.
by marvin 7y ago
Mr. Money Mustache, an early Financial Independence blogger, quit working after having invested enough to mostly live off the expected 4% returns of his investment portfolio. Granted, I don't think there's any evidence at all that

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