marcell

30 ms·

271.
by marcell 6y ago
Here is the lucky halving block: https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000024be...
272.
by marcell 6y ago
Well, it's worth keeping in mind that the risk of death from a coronavirus infection is comparable to the annual risk of death from all causes. Coronavirus infection though is a once per lifetime risk, whereas all-cause mortality occur
273.
by marcell 6y ago
The implication is they would have died soon, like in the next 6 months. About half of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. The median lifespan after entering a nursing home is 5 months, and the mean is 13 months. Coronavirus is very infectio
274.
by marcell 6y ago
Thanks for making this, I'll try it out. I've been trying to do Pyxel (via repl.it) with my kids. They really like coding that draws things, and I really appreciate how easy it is to get started. Downside is that some of the synta
275.
by marcell 6y ago
First, it's not clear or obvious that the 21% daily increase rate would increase indefinitely. Infection rate slows more people get infected, and new potential victims decrease. Second, all regions saw giant, double digit growth rates
276.
by marcell 6y ago
What is your evidence that hospitals in America in general, and in California, are anywhere near being overwhelmed? I've cited evidence which shows the opposite--they are very far from being overwhelmed.
277.
by marcell 6y ago
Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The
278.
by marcell 6y ago
Yea, I agree that the case counts are very different between regions. I think the more interesting column is the IFR estimate based on the antibody study results, since dead is dead as you say. It is interesting though that the median under
279.
by marcell 6y ago
It depends on the study, I've been using their reported confidence intervals. The two California studies (Santa Clara and Los Angeles) used the same kit, which has 2 false positives of 371 tests, and 10-20% false negative rate.
280.
by marcell 6y ago
I know that the California studies used the same test kit. It had 2 false positives out of 371 samples of pre-covid19 cases, and has a 10-20% false negative rate. Because the case numbers are so small, the false positives can skew things qu
281.
by marcell 6y ago
I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.
282.
by marcell 6y ago
> we already know healthcare systems will be overwhelmed (and have been overwhelmed already!!) This isn't really true. It depends a lot on the state. The healthcare system in my area, California Bay Area, is completely underwhelmed.
283.
by marcell 6y ago
> If given the choice between dying of COVID-19 or shutting down society Obviously shut down society, but that's not the choice that exists. The choice in reality is an acceptable risk of death, or shut down society. Between those I
284.
by marcell 6y ago
Yes, basically that. Your expected lifespan is lowered by 0.5%, which is around 0.38 years.
285.
by marcell 6y ago
There's a bit of gish gallop and vitriol here. First, the .75% mortality rate is a one-time hit. It likely pulls some deaths forward, so the incremental death rate is maybe .5% in a single year. Again, this is terrible, and sad, but we
286.
by marcell 6y ago
Every year around 3 or 4 million people die in America from a variety of causes. This is sad, but at some point, everyone has to die. Data is showing that the infection fatality rate is around 0.5%-1%, and is concentrated in older people. [
287.
by marcell 6y ago
No analogy is perfect, but people need context to understand fatality rates, and see what risk is acceptable. Society doesn't have a goal of 0% death rates. We all accept some risk of death as a cost of continued existence. New data is
288.
by marcell 6y ago
> First of all, it’s not “just the flu”. It is something much more dangerous. Catching this virus is a bit like playing a round of Russian roulette. You’ll probably be fine, but you could end up dead I think this is mischaracterizing it.
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Carcinisation(en.wikipedia.org)
1 points by marcell 6y ago|0 comments
290.
Covid-19 Alternate Prevalance Estimates(docs.google.com)
2 points by marcell 6y ago|0 comments
291.
by marcell 6y ago
Early 1900's were also the heyday of eugenics. The author above says civil libertarians were worried about a slippery slope, where mask laws could lead to forced vaccines "or any experiment or indignity." I think anti-mask co
292.
by marcell 7y ago
I understand that 30% sounds like a lot, but this is a bit of "pie slicing" thinking, instead of "pie growing". The 30% that Doordash/Uber Eats charge pays the cost of delivery and customer service. It's not fr
293.
by marcell 7y ago
Strong coder with 10+ years experience on all parts of the stack. Former startup founder and worked at lots of tech companies big and small. I don’t have a specific idea in mind, but would love to chat and brainstorm with entrepreneurial pe
294.
Ask HN: Who's Looking for a Co-Founder?
9 points by marcell 7y ago|3 comments
295.
by marcell 7y ago
Typically a hospitals run at near full capacity, especially during flu season. I have a friend who works at the Kaiser in Oakland in ER, and she says it has been pretty empty right now, relative to a typical flu season. The data linked show
296.
by marcell 7y ago
That's almost certainly untrue. Recent studies have show that as many as 38% of the Italian population has been infected at this point [1]. That gives a fatality rate 0.03%. Let's say the official death count is 10x undercounting,
297.
by marcell 7y ago
Just in support of your argument, new data is showing that the fatality rate is lower then previously estimated, due to a large number of undetected cases. Just one example, tests of pregnant women coming into labor in New York show that 1&
298.
by marcell 7y ago
I noticed you had a list of funding sources in your github. Maybe you could address part of chicken/egg problem by using those to seed your site. Maybe just submit on people's behalf, as long as it's clear what you're do
299.
by marcell 7y ago
In terms of COVID-19, I'm skeptical there's any real need for VC style funding: 1. Existing biotech companies are probably perfectly capable of addressing this with usual means. Vaccines are a known quantity, not novel disruption.
300.
by marcell 7y ago
scrapy for python is pretty good, check it out. In most cases getting banned is the big issue. The bigger the site, the more advanced their bot detection is. You can use luminato.io to get residential and mobile IP's, but it's pri

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