lum

6 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by lum 7y ago

   Hi HN, together with colleagues from EPFL I developed a new statistical model that can be used to (a) understand & visualize the skill of sports teams and players, and (b) to predict outcomes of matches. The model is trained on historic
2. 2.▲
   Show HN: A state-of-the-art statistical model of skill and game outcomes(github.com)

   1 points by lum 7y ago|1 comments
3. 3.▲
   A Surprising World Cup? Not So Fast(blog.kickoff.ai)

   2 points by lum 8y ago|0 comments
4. 4.▲
   by lum 8y ago

   Thanks! Regarding the Kelly Criterion—that's a great idea, I'll look into it! I think we were off to a good start after Morocco vs Iran (for which we had significantly different predictions and got it right), but lost quite a bit
5. 5.▲
   by lum 8y ago

   Yes, exactly!
6. 6.▲
   by lum 8y ago

   Short technical explanation: We've extended a pretty cool skill-based model of comparison outcomes called TrueSkill Through Time [1], developed by Microsoft Research. Compared to TrueSkill, our model is able to learn the dynamics of fo
7. 7.▲
   Show HN: World Cup 2018 Predictions with Bayesian ML(kickoff.ai)

   26 points by lum 8y ago|8 comments
8. 8.▲
   by lum 10y ago

   Thanks a lot for the comments! - about friendly games: agreed, in the future we'd like to downweight them (as well as downweight older games over newer ones) - about substitutions: at training time, we look at the number of minutes eac
9. 9.▲
   by lum 10y ago

   Yes, for now we only predict win / lose. It is fairly reasonable to assume that draws are more likely to arise if the winning probabilities are close to 50/50 (and less likely if there is a big difference) - but you are also right
10. 10.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    You're right. We took Wales' last lineup, but it will very probably be a different lineup against Slovakia. We'll update the prediction shortly before the game, when we know who's going to play.
11. 11.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    We did some preliminary experiments in this direction. Basically, we tried to do a regression on the score difference instead of using only binary outcomes. In our experiments it didn't improve the predictive accuracy - but there are m
12. 12.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    Excellent point - this one is definitely on our todo list. There are several simple extensions of the Elo model that take draws into consideration (i.e., give a non-zero probability to draws), for example the Rao-Kupper model. There are onl
13. 13.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    We scraped it from soccerway.com.
14. 14.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    You are correct about Portugal, not exactly the squad that will likely play against Iceland. We used the starting lineup of the last official game (I believe in this case it was Portugal vs England on June 2nd), which did not include e.g. C
15. 15.▲
    by lum 10y ago

    For those who are interested in the details: we model the strength of teams using the well-know Elo model (used e.g., for official chess ratings). We innovated on two aspects of the traditional Elo model, in which every team has an independ
16. 16.▲
    Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference(kickoff.ai)

    79 points by lum 10y ago|57 comments
17. 17.▲
    Sidekick: real-time success prediction of Kickstarter campaigns(sidekick.epfl.ch)

    3 points by lum 13y ago|0 comments
18. 18.▲
    Predicting Kickstarter campaigns success within 4 hours of launch [pdf](vincent.etter.io)

    38 points by lum 13y ago|17 comments