linearithmic

7 ms·

1.
by linearithmic 4mo ago
testing beliefs against reality
2.
by linearithmic 8mo ago
Remote work buys time for housing reform.
3.
by linearithmic 9mo ago
forecasting bots will transform the field
4.
Forecasting's Transition from Art to Science(abstraction.substack.com)
1 points by linearithmic 9mo ago|1 comments
5.
by linearithmic 11mo ago
Yes, great comment. Getting adoption will be a challenge (although the concept might appeal to fledgling applications).
6.
by linearithmic 11mo ago
it’s not a technical limitation, it’s a business model
7.
You Don't Own Your Reputation(abstraction.substack.com)
5 points by linearithmic 11mo ago|3 comments
8.
by linearithmic 1y ago
I found the argument of the counterfactual to be persuasive. Do you have a sense of how much of the time would people actually be doing something better with the extra bandwidth?
9.
by linearithmic 1y ago
Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
10.
by linearithmic 1y ago
I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.
11.
by linearithmic 1y ago
Good point. For me the issue is the variance which governs the time that I have to leave. For the subway, if I give myself a 10 minute margin beyond the median time, I'm quite likely to be on time, for walking or biking if I give mysel
12.
by linearithmic 1y ago
Thanks for the feedback! I'll try to add something about automated cameras and tag violations (which I didn't address) in my next deep dive.
13.
by linearithmic 1y ago
I see these changes as expanding freedom, not reducing it. Car ownership costs thousands annually, which many young and low-income New Yorkers can't afford. Improving buses, creating safe bike lanes, and making parking more efficient g
14.
by linearithmic 1y ago
The idea was not that San Francisco does everything perfectly, but instead that there are things they've tried that have been demonstrated to be successful we can learn from in NYC.
15.
by linearithmic 1y ago
I actually own a car in NYC and think these would make things more practical. I would happily trade time spent looking for parking for a minor fee and would happily trade time spent in traffic for a toll.
16.
Abundance Starts with Mobility(abstraction.substack.com)
32 points by linearithmic 1y ago|18 comments
17.
by linearithmic 1y ago
Even if every housing reform went into effect tomorrow, construction timelines mean it could be years before we see meaningful improvements in affordability or availability. To improve quality of life and opportunity in the near term, we ne
18.
by linearithmic 2y ago
seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is
19.
Reframing Bowling Alone(abstraction.substack.com)
1 points by linearithmic 2y ago|1 comments
20.
by linearithmic 2y ago
connecting the dots with network theory
21.
by linearithmic 2y ago
even if progress stalls (and it won't), we've only started to tap its potential
22.
Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good(abstraction.substack.com)
1 points by linearithmic 2y ago|0 comments
23.
Making Better Forecasts(abstraction.substack.com)
1 points by linearithmic 3y ago|1 comments
24.
by linearithmic 3y ago
why it's important and a process for doing it
25.
by linearithmic 3y ago
haha, your point is taken that democratic guidance will have its problems. The idea I wanted to push though was that even if AI can do all work, people will still have the option to do something that they will find meaningful and important.
26.
What will humans do after AI achieves cognitive superiority?(abstraction.substack.com)
2 points by linearithmic 3y ago|13 comments
27.
by linearithmic 3y ago
Our most significant responsibility won't be competing with AI, but rather in deciding what should be done.
28.
Iterative Prediction Markets(abstraction.substack.com)
7 points by linearithmic 3y ago|3 comments
29.
by linearithmic 3y ago
A post about predicting tomorrow's predictions.
30.
AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs – Yet(asteriskmag.com)
1 points by linearithmic 3y ago|2 comments

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