knzhou

35 ms·

301.
by knzhou 7y ago
Well, you don't have to. There are plenty of actual epidemiologists unhappy with the government's actions. Just because Pueyo was arbitrarily chosen to represent one side doesn't mean professional support for that side doesn&
302.
by knzhou 7y ago
The Conservative party is fresh off one of the greatest electoral landslides in history, and is 5 years away from the next election. So perhaps they think that people will have come around to their point of view by then? I'm just grasp
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by knzhou 7y ago
Clearly they have. I'm just saying that the word of each individual epidemiologist is not absolute law. They can disagree, because they base models on different assumptions. As a result, many, many predictions shouted far and wide by
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by knzhou 7y ago
It is indeed highly intellectually interesting to observe... and absolutely terrifying to experience. It will give the world lots of interesting data, in precisely the same sense that the WWII Axis biological experiments did. God help the B
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by knzhou 7y ago
Wuhan had the great majority of cases in the entire world. The other provinces of China are more analogous to individual European countries. They locked down for a few weeks and have already come back up. The long term strategies for Korea
306.
by knzhou 7y ago
> keep it ticking along there nicely through the spring and summer and have this thing wrapped up by the end of the year. It could all go very badly wrong. It certainly will go badly wrong. If you use all your NHS capacity for treating C
307.
by knzhou 7y ago
Because the models the government's epidemiologists are using explicitly don't account for all possible actions. Back when this was taking off in China, a bunch of epidemiologists came out and said it was completely uncontrollab
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by knzhou 7y ago
Indeed, you buy up time to get more medical supplies or figure out more effective treatments. For example, China is now getting over it, but is still producing ridiculous amounts of medical equipment, which will soon get delivered across th
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by knzhou 7y ago
Their reasoning is that if the only things you can do are China-style lockdown or nothing, then the disease will just resume exponentially growing the second lockdown ends, so it's pointless to do it at all. While that may be technical
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by knzhou 7y ago
Yeah, there's an annoying genre of videos that's just a dude in his basement talking to his webcam for an hour. Not only is the format low information density, but you can't even extract the key bits by skimming through it.
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by knzhou 7y ago
> For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available Why? If your nation is twice as big, then all else equal, your government has twice as much money, twice as many resources, and hence twice as many tests. China now ha
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by knzhou 7y ago
It is sad, because ( optimistically ) COVID-19 is comparable in impact to, e.g. measles. We ran a massive worldwide campaign to eliminate measles in the 20th century, and largely succeeded. Now, I've heard older people optimistically s
313.
by knzhou 7y ago
But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the polic
314.
by knzhou 7y ago
I have watched them. They're merely saying the same thing but in more diplomatic words. In South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China, having most of the population infected isn't an implicit assumption that the strategy
315.
by knzhou 7y ago
That's exactly right. The NHS is going to completely collapse before their "plan" is even 1% finished. I suspect that once this happens, they're just going to fold and adopt the same plan as every other country -- but af
316.
by knzhou 7y ago
Well, I've done the same back of the envelope estimates they're claiming, but what do you have in mind? If you're saying that their plan is doomed and going to kill millions, I agree.
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by knzhou 7y ago
I agree with this guy, but he's not calling the shots. I'm talking about the UK government's position, and they were quite explicit about it.
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by knzhou 7y ago
The idea is that in the long run everybody will get it, so might as well "take it on the chin" now to gain herd immunity, and minimize damage to the economy. There's some rumblings of protecting the old during the summer when
319.
by knzhou 7y ago
The UK has explicitly declared that its strategy is to let about 40 million people get it. If they hold to this, I'd be surprised if any country in the world will allow travel from there by summer. I was part of a US/UK fellowsh
320.
by knzhou 7y ago
I don't have a "side". On one hand, I was born in mainland China. On the other hand, my parents were almost gunned down at Tiananmen square. We came to America to try to leave that behind, and yet still the senators presume
321.
by knzhou 7y ago
I've visited senators and representatives and they called me a threat to this country, to my face, knowing full well that I was a US citizen. Maybe you've had less experience with politicians. Maybe you look less Asian. Maybe you&
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by knzhou 7y ago
Right now, 99% of active cases are outside of China. If you're worried about shipments from China, you should be 100x as worried about shipments from Europe. Or, for that matter, a different state in the US. Another point: if you'
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by knzhou 7y ago
Okay, whatever, 150. This is an order of magnitude thing.
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by knzhou 7y ago
Senators are within the top 100 most powerful people in the US. They represent millions of people. I think you're just grasping at straws because you've already decided what narrative you want. In which case there's nothing m
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by knzhou 7y ago
And the equal and opposite rumor is being raised by an American Senator: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-bioweapon-tom-co...
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by knzhou 7y ago
Sorry if you're that nostalgic, but the cold war ended decades ago.
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by knzhou 7y ago
> If the PRC doesn't want these rumors to circulate, these rumors would not last more than a hour Reddit tries to stop conspiracy theories with quarantines and bans. But they're rapidly spreading anyway. > 2. I don't se
328.
by knzhou 7y ago
You can't just declare everything that any low-ranking Chinese bureaucrat does to be an "effort by Chinese establishment". This is nationalistic flame-bait.
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by knzhou 7y ago
Yes, he's a native Chinese speaker whose English is clumsy and ineloquent. Guess how native English speakers sound when they're trying to speak Chinese?
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by knzhou 7y ago
Sigh. Each dumb conspiracy theory in Chinese social media has an equal and opposite dumb conspiracy theory in American social media.

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