2 ms·

Well, I've done the same back of the envelope estimates they're claiming, but what do you have in mind? If you're saying that their plan is doomed and going to

• dnautics 7y ago
  I don't think your claim that you need to go all Hubei to slow or curtail the spread of an epidemic is correct. "Herd immunity" is a very well studied concept, but it depends on lots of parameters, like transmission likelihood, social exchange rate, transmissibility window, and we (as in humanity), much less you, don't have a very good idea of what those numbers are (and honestly, orgs like WHO and CDC don't either). Depending on what those numbers are, it could (making some numbers up here) be that a 20% decrease in social contact is sufficient (and the US was never doomed from the start relative to china) or maybe a 40% decrease is sufficient (and the US is probably fine now) or maybe a 90% decrease is necessary (and indeed going all Hubei is required). But given that there haven't been major outbreaks in "china outside of Hubei", I think we have good reason to suspect that maybe full authoritarian clampdown isn't necessary, and voluntary self-quarantine is likely to be effective. But who knows? Don't take my word for it. I'm just a no-longer-in-the-industry chemistry PhD that has studied some autocatalysis differential equations. It's also possible that there are genetic components to these parameters, so what works (or doesn't) in italy might not be the same in thailand.