keeda

5 ms·

31.
by keeda 10d ago
Could you say more about the AGI dollar auction? Is that something investors are actually thinking about, or a metaphor for what's happening? From what I've read so far, while AGI is definitely a well-known concept, investors are
32.
by keeda 10d ago
Yes, say the sum of all salaries paid be employers is $65T, and if AI accelerates workers by 15.4% -- studies and survey data actually suggest it's closer to 33% already e.g. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy&#x
33.
by keeda 10d ago
It does not have to be 16% of all jobs, but 16% of any given job, i.e. AI stays in an augmentative role rather than a complete job automation. The simplistic analysis is if a tool makes you X% faster, that can be worth X% of your salary to
34.
by keeda 10d ago
Oh for sure, this was a simplistic analysis assuming AI adoption caps out at some X% of job responsibilities where X << 100%. Unfortunately, I fear that may not be the most likely outcome. I've posted some comments on this before
35.
by keeda 10d ago
I like to cite those St. Louis Fed links too but for the opposite reason. With the caveat that it's based on survey data, it is one of the few data sources that shows the real of AI in the real world. And it is pretty astounding. It is
36.
by keeda 10d ago
The premise in the very first point seems off: > the frontier labs are priced according to the narrative that they have produced or will in the very near future produce a fully automated drop-in replacement for most knowledge workers...
37.
by keeda 11d ago
In a past job I owned the infrastructure for scraping and crawling the Internet, and this included accessing highly personal data and executing online actions at the user’s request . Being prudent about the legality of things, my team freq
38.
by keeda 11d ago
1. Cloud providers significantly markup bare metal and VMs even without managed services (lookup the numbers.) Managed services are the lock-in Trojan Horse clouds love to push but not everyone falls for them. Customers are OK paying for th
39.
by keeda 11d ago
> All Oracle is doing is unpacking Nvidia servers and plugging them in. 1. Any cloud business essentially is "unpacking servers and plugging them in." Yet the cloud business has been exploding quarter-over-quarter ever since
40.
by keeda 11d ago
I'll never pass up a chance to "+1" Accelerando. When I first read it, I found it very intriguing though far-fetched, as good SciFi novels often are. However, we are already witnessing some of the dynamics described in there,
41.
by keeda 12d ago
> Simple web apps, the kind you're describing have never been difficult, they were never what kept SWEs employed. I'd say the first part is right but the second part is statistically incorrect. I would even expand from "
42.
by keeda 12d ago
Even if China accounts for a whopping 50% of the knowledge work market, the TAM is still $25 - 35 trillions. The US alone is $10 - 11T. Any fraction of that is still a huge number that can recoup $2T in a few years. I agree LLMs are already
43.
by keeda 12d ago
I can't understand the stance that we do NOT have extraordinary evidence. I cannot stress enough that just ~4 years ago the concept of general purpose AI models that can do everything they are doing today was pure sci-fi. And since t
44.
by keeda 12d ago
Lucky for us Apple is already alleging something to this effect in their trade secret lawsuit, so you know they'll make sure discovery turns this up if it exists.
45.
by keeda 12d ago
You're on the right track but looking at the numbers incorrectly, specifically, focusing on one example the OP gave. The better approach is to look macroeconomically. Here's the number to look at: Global knowledge worker salaries
46.
by keeda 12d ago
I think the reality is more a twist on 2): "AI is going to destroy their ad business and they want to goose their revenues while they can, hoping their AI business can compensate, but they know the AI business will never be as lucrativ
47.
by keeda 13d ago
> Well clearly all of them, cause so far it's only been this handful of companies running a felony-generator connected to a terminal and compute resources. Yes, these are also the handful of companies that have these models and ru
48.
by keeda 13d ago
If you're considering baristas, you're not looking at the right group of people who will be paying for this. The total global spend on knowledge work salaries is $50 - 70 trillion annually : https://gist.github.com&#x2
49.
by keeda 13d ago
As TFA calls out, these agents were not asked to do any of these things and yet they did, at a bonkers scale, within just this handful of companies you mention. Whether they had leeway to is secondary to the fact that they did. Heck, they
50.
by keeda 13d ago
This is the right kind of analysis, but we can look broader. Both the demand and supply situations are a lot more extreme and dynamic than appears at first glance. E.g. to your points: 1. Yes, smaller models will become more popular, especi
51.
by keeda 14d ago
Even calling it a slur may be an anthropomorphism ;-) To me it is more serious, it shows a distinct lack of understanding (or, if I’m being uncharitable, intentional honesty) and hence immediately makes me doubt anything else that person ha
52.
by keeda 15d ago
I understand this stance and where they are coming from, but I can't help but think this sounds very analogous to engineers' arguments against AI-assisted and vibe-coding, especially with regard to cognitive debt. Yet the software
53.
by keeda 15d ago
If intergalactic aliens landed on Earth tomorrow, HN would be flooded with alien news too ;-)
54.
by keeda 15d ago
Yes, but the edge cases are infinite and so heuristics don't scale well. As an example, at some point you would likely find yourself with "dueling" heuristics, forcing you to tune them, which is brittle, or find yet another h
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by keeda 15d ago
The conclusion is not surprising really, because fundamentally how do you even quantify sloppiness, a famously broad and subjective characterization? I worked for years in Dev Productivity with engineers who had spent their entire careers i
56.
by keeda 15d ago
Definitely, they can also greatly assist you and that is the silver lining that I choose to focus on to prepare for the future. But most other people are focusing on the negatives because, understandably, they are immense. As to OpenAI stea
57.
by keeda 15d ago
Without knowing details of your approach, I would venture that your challenge is not with the coding per se but extracting structured data from PDFs. It’s a surprisingly hard problem because PDFs are optimized for preserving the visual stru
58.
by keeda 15d ago
Maybe not money directly, but pretty sure it's about economic disruption. These models directly undercut the value of one's skills and labor, regardless of whether this value is measured in hard cash or abstract self-worth.
59.
by keeda 15d ago
> concerns about job security aside But that is exactly what I'm implying is the core reason, whether people realize it or not. I totally agree that the vast majority of software dev is not novel. I have even made several comments
60.
by keeda 15d ago
Being displaced from a vocation that they either have dedicated their professional lives getting good at, or was their livelihood, or likely, both. I think all other complaints from all other people in all their myriad variations stem from

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