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Yes, say the sum of all salaries paid be employers is $65T, and if AI accelerates workers by 15.4% -- studies and survey data actually suggest it's closer to 33

by keeda 10d ago

Yes, say the sum of all salaries paid be employers is $65T, and if AI accelerates workers by 15.4% -- studies and survey data actually suggest it's closer to 33% already e.g. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-generative-ai-adoption-2025 https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-gen... -- that is worth 15.4% of 65T which is 10T, which is already "double-digit trillions" as I said. Assuming a 33% boost takes it to ~20T annually, which is technically "10s of trillions of dollars" in revenue. And these numbers are from before agentic tasks arrived on the scene, so the actual productivity boost and corresponding value to employers is likely even higher. I'm not sure where the disconnect is?

zug_zug 10d ago
Did you read your link? It says that 33% of people adopt AI, not that AI makes all workers 33% more effective, that would be absolutely insane. For that to be true we'd expect to see either companies who use it have revenues all suddenly jumping 33% (which we have not seen) or laying off 33% of their staff (which we have not seen and would also be catastrophic in the short term at least). I'm not really going to belabor this point more, because it really sounds to me like you haven't even done the most cursory exploration into this and the people who have give an estimate of 7-10%[1] (and only a small fraction of that value would be captured by the AI provider). All the best. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai...
- keeda 10d ago
  Yep, I read the link, their detailed paper (https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2024/2024-027.pdf https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2024/2024-02...) and I also played with their data tracker here: https://www.genaiadoptiontracker.com/#explore-data https://www.genaiadoptiontracker.com/#explore-data Toggle "Work hours using genAI" and "Time savings due to genAI" so see what I mean. You can also toggle between various industries, which is eye-opening because even industries like "Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting" are seeing productivity gains! And if you do not want to read the detailed paper, they have a follow-up article here: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/feb/impact-generative-ai-work-productivity https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/feb/impact-ge... Specific quote: > Using our data on generative AI use, this estimate implies that, on average, workers are 33% more productive in each hour that they use generative AI. This estimate is in line with the average estimated productivity gain from several randomized experiments on generative AI usage. What we HAVE seen is that the national labor productivity has gone up by 1.3% since ChatGPT was released, and it lines up very well with all the other data and studies they cover... AND your reference, which predicted a 1.5% growth back in 2023!

by keeda 10d ago

zug_zug 10d ago

Did you read your link? It says that 33% of people adopt AI, not that AI makes all workers 33% more effective, that would be absolutely insane. For that to be true we'd expect to see either companies who use it have revenues all suddenly jumping 33% (which we have not seen) or laying off 33% of their staff (which we have not seen and would also be catastrophic in the short term at least). I'm not really going to belabor this point more, because it really sounds to me like you haven't even done the most cursory exploration into this and the people who have give an estimate of 7-10%[1] (and only a small fraction of that value would be captured by the AI provider). All the best. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/generative-ai...

keeda 10d ago
Yep, I read the link, their detailed paper (https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2024/2024-027.pdf https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2024/2024-02...) and I also played with their data tracker here: https://www.genaiadoptiontracker.com/#explore-data https://www.genaiadoptiontracker.com/#explore-data Toggle "Work hours using genAI" and "Time savings due to genAI" so see what I mean. You can also toggle between various industries, which is eye-opening because even industries like "Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting" are seeing productivity gains! And if you do not want to read the detailed paper, they have a follow-up article here: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/feb/impact-generative-ai-work-productivity https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/feb/impact-ge... Specific quote: > Using our data on generative AI use, this estimate implies that, on average, workers are 33% more productive in each hour that they use generative AI. This estimate is in line with the average estimated productivity gain from several randomized experiments on generative AI usage. What we HAVE seen is that the national labor productivity has gone up by 1.3% since ChatGPT was released, and it lines up very well with all the other data and studies they cover... AND your reference, which predicted a 1.5% growth back in 2023!