joshuahedlund

10 ms·

91.
by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> At that point, since a "short video" is really a scene, we are basically at film stage. But silent films, no? Or where are things at as far as generated audio that syncs to the video? (sound effects, dialogue, music - each of
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Not sure about overall prospects for successful business, but current revenue is a lot higher than I realized: > The Wall Street Journal reports that Starlink's revenue for 2022 was $1.4 billion, up from $222 million in 2021. It is
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
I don't understand what the colors represent and I can't read the thread. Can you summarize?
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> Its really impossible to go back in history, at all Sequencing ancient DNA allows us to do this in some respects. We’ve learned a lot in the last <10 years about population movements, relations, and timing from this. See “Who We Are
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> Recognizing different bird species can be challenging, especially when it's not a familiar species like a blue jay. FYI Cornell Lab's Merlin app is fantastic at this, and its bird call audio identification is even better. The
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Not completely. If you trained me on a thousand bad arguments for why the earth is flat and one really good debunking, I predict I would reason myself to the correct conclusion. I predict ChatGTP would not.
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Whithout expected magnitude, Useless to know whether I can see it bright like Venus in the city or if maybe I might be able to make out a smudge with binoculars if I drive an hour out of town… Found details on spaceweather.com: > There i
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Your mistake is you're only thinking about it from the perspective of the stereotyper. Now think about the negative impact (career, legal system, etc) on the person being incorrectly stereotyped.
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Yes, you are absolutely correct. This is exactly why the UN has predicted a slowing of population growth with an eventual peak of 10-11B in several decades. However this article is suggesting a much more drastic slowing and much lower peak.
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
I mean the intervals between population hitting a new billion (6B to 7B, 7B to 8B) They intervals have been getting shorter and shorter due to exponential growth. Obviously there will be a last such interval when population peaks (no 9B to
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> orchestrated by empires What does this mean? Birthrates were not higher in the last hundred years than previously, We just got better at keeping kids from dying. In fact these days governments are begging people to raise birthrates and
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
What data do they have that supports this argument? The consensus is for a peak a bit higher. Given that 6B, 7B, 8B were all hit at consistent/decreasing intervals of ~12 years, it would be surprising if the intervals didn’t get longer
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Possibly a dumb question: can the tension between the two rates simply be resolved because one method measures an old historical rate and one method measures the current rate, and it’s been dropping over time? Or are they both measuring the
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Similarly, I’ve been thinking about how all our experience of things that are “intelligent” overlaps with things that are “alive,” and how AI breaks that connection which makes it hard to reason about. On the one hand, if you asked what’s t
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> The latest Cruise incident occurred Thursday night when a Cruise robotaxi and an emergency vehicle crashed and left a passenger injured. Cruise said in a social media post that one of its self-driving Chevy Bolt EVs entered an intersec
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
It might. But how many more months of increasing employment do we need to have to disprove the claim "All this is directly replaced by AI now"?
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> All this is directly replaced by AI now. ChatGTP came out nine months ago and the US has added two million jobs in that time. https://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/us/
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Yes, solid advice. Generally I find if I'm fairly close to the sound source, and it's repeating, it's almost always accurate, to a surprising degree (when I can confirm by sighting it); if it's a one-off call from farthe
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
The Merlin app by Cornell Lab of Ornithology is fantastic for identifying bird sounds in real-time. Besides the machine-learning tech the overall app is a great experience, clearly made by talented developers who probably also love birds an
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
imo GTP-X is going to need to be much much “smarter” and consistently accurate (which may be fundamentally impossible) before it’s going to be “widely deployed for military and industrial decision-making” anywhere.
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> A superintelligence will be able to convince anyone it wants to do anything for it. What is the evidence for such an extravagant claim? Is there a correlation between IQ delta and persuadability that has no degradation as the lower IQ
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Current heat wave is pretty insane. Some stats here: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/the-scorching-sum... - El Paso has shattered the old record for consecutive 100+ degree highs by several days and sti
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-... Switch to Antarctic and make sure to click "Show All Years". Until 2023 even low years were at least slowly marginal departures overlapping with
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Very few bird species have gone extinct this century though, and many that were on the utter brink have rebounded (California condor, whooping crane, and kakapo to name a few). Conservation works.
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Interesting, which ones are widely considered as good or better?
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> When your product is super easy for someone else to make a compatible set of bricks for As anyone who has used “compatible” bricks will tell you, it’s not easy to match the quality. Most off-brands don’t hit the right point on the spec
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> how does the "hallucination" issue differ from the same behaviour we see in humans? In humans “hallucination” means observing false inputs. In GTP it means creating false outputs . Completely different with massively differe
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
Human chess is still an activity that earns people money tho
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
> Also, it would be trivial to avoid detection in our own solar system. Duck behind a moon or planet, or just quietly float in the blackness of space, and no earthling will ever see you. Still human-centric to assume they would know what
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by joshuahedlund 3y ago
No one has a monopoly on the sky. Amateur astronomers track active satellite missions, discover asteroids, mine public sky survey data to analyze stars, etc, etc. If there was anything out of the ordinary on the visible spectrum regularly s

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