jobs_throwaway

5 ms·

61.
by jobs_throwaway 8mo ago
Not equivalent, but I do think a necessary byproduct of actual AGI is that it will be able to solve actual problems in the real world in a way that generates positive value on a large enough scale that it will show up in GDP
62.
by jobs_throwaway 8mo ago
Supranormal GDP growth is my bar. When its actually able to get around bottlenecks and produce value on a societal level
63.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Because we can reduce crashes and fatalities without Waymo being Max Verstappen
64.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
It was a figure of speech, but I think you're undercounting. When you consider interactions between all the things, even with just a handful of variables (and I think there are many more than a handful) you get a huge number of scenari
65.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Computers can take all of those things into account as well
66.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Your data that shows 30% of fatal crashes involve alcohol, not to mention any of the other factors I named? Seems like your data supports my conclusion! Again, I welcome you to point to data that contradicts my claims, but it seems you are
67.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> This is goalpost moving 101. The question isn't would a human driver also struggle but _would it be better_? You have zero data. It is not moving the goalpost to say "so would a human". Comparison to human drivers is exa
68.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> You need way more data, like orders of magnitude more. There are trillions of miles driven in the US every year. Absurd, reductive, and non-empirical. Waymos crash and cause injury/fatality far less frequently than human drivers,
69.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> A human brain automatically thinks of all the scenarios I don't think this is true. There are infinitely many scenarios in a complex situation like a road with traffic, cars parked, pedestrians about, weather, etc. My brain might
70.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Could be! In aggregate though, Waymos have shown to be safer than human drivers, so my prior is that that holds here.
71.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
LOL
72.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
I do the same, and try to actively anticipate and avoid situations like this. Sadly, in my experience most drivers instead fixate on getting to their destination as fast as possible.
73.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Doubt
74.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
If you have contradicting data I'd be glad to see it >It's likely that a fully-attentive human driver would have done worse. Is based off the source I gave in my comment, the peer-reviewed model > a huge portion of human dri
75.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
People who reflexively assume a human driver would do better
76.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
I don't think this is accurate, 20mph is more common
77.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Some human drivers? Yes, certainly. Your median human driver? Sadly, I think not. Most would be rushing, or distracted, or careless. > waymo is driving recklessly by obeying the speed limit here (assuming it was 20mph) in a way that many
78.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
And the fact that Waymo is never drunk/high/tired/texting, which an astounding portion of human drivers are.
79.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> I feel like you have to say this out loud because many people in these discussions don't share this view. Billion dollar corporate experiments conducted in public are sacrosanct for some reason. Yes, and I find it annoying that so
80.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> a machine that would claim to be as good as the best human driver. Does Waymo claim that? If so I haven't seen it. That should of course be the goal, but "better than the average human driver" should be the bar.
81.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> But most humans would have been aware of the big picture scenario much earlier. I wouldn't call it likely. Sure, there are definitely human drivers who are better than Waymo, but IME they're few and far between. Much more com
82.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Certainly, I'm not against constructive criticism of Waymo. I just think it's important to consider the counterfactual. You're right too that an especially prudent human driver may have avoided the scenario altogether, and Wa
83.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
So you're worried that instead of facing off against an insurance agency, the plantiff would be facing off against a private company? Doesn't seem like a huge difference to me
84.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Yup. And to add > Waymo said in its blog post that its “peer-reviewed model” shows a “fully attentive human driver in this same situation would have made contact with the pedestrian at approximately 14 mph.” It's likely that a fully
85.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
What do you think would've happened had the British not acted the way they did? The French would've carried them home? More than one group is able to exercise agency in a situation, and its absurd and ahistorical to pretend the En
86.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Besides the point. Human agency shaped the fate of the nation. Yes the French were necessary, but they also caused the encirclement in large part. The situation can obviously not be summed up in a single line. The relevant point though is t
87.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
> In England our heroes tend to be characters who either have, or come to realise that they have, no control over their lives whatsoever – Pilgrim, Gulliver, Hamlet, Paul Pennyfeather (from Decline and Fall), Tony Last (from A Handful of
88.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
TMSC's Arizona fab is up and running producing 4nm chips There's ~a dozen in the works or under construction TMSC plans to have 2-3nm fabs operational in the next 2-3 years So we're 2-3 years behind the standard (currently 2n
89.
by jobs_throwaway 9mo ago
Of course you can. The vast majority of donations of this magnitude come with strings attached, be it how the money is spent, access to leadership/events, etc
90.
by jobs_throwaway 10mo ago
I am over 26, a man, and my insurance (Cigna) in the US covered it.

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