jjk166

8 ms·

91.
by jjk166 3mo ago
The 20-24 year olds seem to be at roughly the same point as since the great recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300036 Worth noting this is people who have a job, it includes the under-employed.
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by jjk166 3mo ago
It's likely not even people retiring early, just demographics shifting up the ages. The youngest baby boomers are 61. The percentage of Americans over the age of 60 increased from 22.8% in 2020 to 25% in 2025. Also the younger cohorts
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by jjk166 3mo ago
In other news, June worst full month since May.
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by jjk166 4mo ago
They need fewer people to build and to maintain than older ones did. Further the jobs from building the factory are temporary.
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Or perhaps the standards of evidence established for a pre-industrial society when eye-witness testimony was the best that could reasonably be achieved is not necessarily the optimal system for a digital society where everyone carries a hig
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by jjk166 4mo ago
At the same time though, a bunch of people who know each other and the people allegedly involved could very easily share the same incorrect testimony. You wouldn't believe in bigfoot if 5 guys drinking beers swore they saw him while th
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Which is exactly the point I was making. For a particular emperor in Constantinople, paying tribute to an army outside the wall may have been, or appeared to have been, an economical option for achieving their personal goals, which may not
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by jjk166 4mo ago
The problem is real estate can not be looked at on a national scale. It is fundamentally local. In a country like the US, probably 95%+ of the land is absolutely worthless as an investment. You can get a residential plot in North Dakota for
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by jjk166 4mo ago
That has nothing to do with pocket vetoes. A pro-forma session blocks recess appointments. It also doesn't occur each day, congress can adjourn for up to 3 days without recess. Pocket vetoes have occurred during mid session breaks (kno
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by jjk166 4mo ago
There is a wide gulf between arguing something happened on occasion and arguing it was a sound idea. History records ancient states performing human sacrifice to make the sun rise again. It's likely these people saw it as a good idea,
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by jjk166 4mo ago
It was also quite common for them to assassinate their emperors, to engage in civil war, to debase their currency so as to pay soldiers more, to hire barbarian mercenaries, etc. It is one thing to acknowledge these things happened, it is qu
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by jjk166 4mo ago
That people did things at some point or another in history does not mean those things were good ideas on any time scales. People both make bad decisions and face conflicts of interest. History is chock full of incredibly dumb things that ne
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Most likely not. The price to pay people to get them to do something must exceed the opportunity cost of them not doing that something. Raising an army from your people, if they don't fight alongside you they are probably facing a pret
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> If he fails to sign or veto it then in about two weeks, it will automatically become law anyway. This is inaccurate. If the president fails to sign a bill within 10 days (not including sundays) while congress is not in session then t
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> The concept of infinity claims that the dog eventually becomes Shakespeare. The ability to reproduce an exact copy of hamlet does not make one Shakespeare. A monkey on a typewriter may very well generate Shakespeare eventually, but it
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Transmission losses are orders of magnitude lower than transportation energy costs. You both get dramatically less loss per kilometer, and you have way fewer kilometers to travel. Transmission does get less efficient over longer distances;
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by jjk166 4mo ago
A very similar process does a lot more than just coffee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlQT4ptwLKs I was inspired by the above video and have been playing around with ultrasonically aged drinks for quite some time now. It&
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by jjk166 4mo ago
I would argue serving 19 years in the US Senate is a far more impressive political accomplishment than being elected mayor of a city, even one as prominent as New York. Bernie has had immense political success, even if his attempt at being
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> Probably second behind the swastika itself. Definitely not. SS bolts, the nazi eagle, the iron cross, the fasces, hitler's mustache, etc are all immensely more recognizeable. The fact that in the skit they say "we've got
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by jjk166 4mo ago
The scenario was not one person on earth, it was one person on an island. There are plenty of other people who could potentially immigrate to the island. People also tend to give ridiculous answers when they're wrong.
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Because it isn't. Aligning incentives is really easy. "If you do something that causes a productivity gain worth X, I will give you some reward with a value Y where Y is less than X but greater than the cost Z of the effort you ne
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> Download model, done. Note how that is not a parametric model with the appropriate variable parameters nor does it have the set screw I specified in my prompt. Even if precisely the model you want has been made by somebody else, it sti
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by jjk166 4mo ago
You very clearly did not understand what I wrote, so let's simplify this further. There is one guy alone on an island. There are two lighthouses on the island. Each lighthouse needs an operator to function. The guy operates one of the
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Definitely for fine adjustment you're going to still use the manual CAD tools, but you can describe things much faster than you can model them. Good prompt engineering is important here as much as for any other AI use case. For example
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Or all 15 people are still employed doing the work of 22.5. Or even more people have been hired now that each person can generate 50% more value than they previously could. Or people are reallocated from the AI assisted task to another. Or
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> Which indicates: the management believes there are productivity gains from AI use, but adoption lags due to inertia and reluctance to change existing workflows. Methinks adoption lags due to management's inability to align incenti
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> This is never true and just economic denialism. There is a market price for labor. If there is no supply at a given price it is not evidence that a market does not exist, only that the demand is mispriced. There can be situations where
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by jjk166 4mo ago
Let's say the law is currently "this area is zoned for single family residences limited to at most two stories" and you change that law to "this area is zoned for residences limited to at most four stories." You hav
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by jjk166 4mo ago
And more specifically there is a delay between when technology lowers the infant mortality rate and it becomes culturally normal to have the smaller number of children leading to the same number of adult descendants, so you typically get 1-
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by jjk166 4mo ago
> How do you imagine YIMBY relaxing zoning and allowing things at lower cost and not simultaneously allowing people with money to push through what they want? Relaxing zoning laws never meant throwing them completely out the window. It h

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