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Most likely not. The price to pay people to get them to do something must exceed the opportunity cost of them not doing that something. Raising an army from you
by jjk166 4mo ago
Most likely not. The price to pay people to get them to do something must exceed the opportunity cost of them not doing that something. Raising an army from your people, if they don't fight alongside you they are probably facing a pretty suboptimal situation - their crops burned, their cities looted, their wives and daughters raped, foreign oppression, etc. This risk may be small, while stepping onto the battlefield has risks of its own, and it requires materiel which isn't cheap, so most people will not do it for free, and even if some will you probably want more and better soldiers as well. But you don't need that much to tip the scales.
On the other hand the adversary stands to gain a lot from pillaging your countryside, both gaining wealth from the loot they capture and security by knocking you out as a potential threat. In the most extreme case they may be looking at exterminating you entirely and taking your land and everything in it for themselves. They may be facing starvation and death if they don't take your resources from you. You fundamentally can't offer them more than they could potentially take. It is rational for them to accept less treasure for sufficiently reduced risk, but there is no guarantee you can offer enough that fighting for the rest isn't worth it in their eyes. Paying them to attack someone else is even harder - they still do not reap the full benefits of defeating you, but they still suffer the risk of fighting, and they have an additional enemy to boot. If they do manage to go for that option, you're almost certainly losing a potential ally (the enemy of your enemy is your friend) and whoever wins that conflict is going to be pretty pissed at you.
On top of this, paying your own people to fight for you strengthens your side. Yes war may not be the optimal use of resources but those dollars are flowing right back into your economy feeding your people, employing your smiths, etc. The strong army you raise both deters potential adversaries and can be used to extract demands from neighbors. Conversely, paying tribute to the adversary makes them stronger - they can afford more men, better weapons, deeper war chests. You may buy yourself time but the fundamental grievances that made war possible in the first place have gone unaddressed; it is reasonable to expect you will wind up in the same situation again at some point, but the next time it will be more expensive to bribe them while you will have less money to raise an army for yourself. You can't repeat this cycle too many times.
All this assumes your adversary is rational. Unfortunately that's not a safe assumption. For the right price you'll be able to raise an army, but whether it be a holy crusade or a fight for freedom or a face launching a thousand ships, a particular army might be fighting for something they consider priceless.
- ggm 4mo agoIf I understand it, Brett's central point is that early states lacked free capital to actually "pay" anyone and so levee-en-mass was compulsion for food, or forage/pillage and obligations driven not cash driven. England was an early progenitor of paid soldiers and had an effect on the conduct 0f European wars, not entirely beneficial. But that's long after ancient times. My point is that history records ancient states with surplus, paying off invaders. Success is highly conditional to time. Most people here think if in 10 years they own you it failed. I tend to think if you held power for 10 years you won.
- constantius 4mo ago10 years of respite is nothing on the scale of countries. History is littered with examples of states choosing to pay off their would-be attackers, and seeing it as success or failure depends on your priors. Byzantium was especially adept at this, for centuries, and they did fine for a millenium, but more often than not it was seen as a temporary, last resort measure, with large downsides, and generally to avoid creating a new front while a more critical war was being waged elsewhere. By paying off your enemies, you strengthen their armies, you give them an incentive to ask for more and more each year (because they know you wouldn't have paid if you weren't weak), as a rule they will regularly pillage your countryside to encourage you to pay, and they will mostly use the money you pay them as investment to launch attacks against you at the first opportunity. For Byzantium, this was the case with Arabs, Bulgarians, Crusaders, etc., and over time it led to ruin. Though it also led to overall great outcomes with Armenians and Iberians, who became vassal states.
- jjk166 4mo agoThere is a wide gulf between arguing something happened on occasion and arguing it was a sound idea. History records ancient states performing human sacrifice to make the sun rise again. It's likely these people saw it as a good idea, and hey the sun kept rising for years, but you'd have a hard time convincing me it was economical compared to alternative options.
- fragmede 4mo ago