jhayward

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391.
by jhayward 7y ago
I'm not sure but I interpreted it as indicating that the appearance of the outbreak centering at the transit hubs was the result of 'seed' infections traveling from outlying sources 'in' toward the transit hub.
392.
by jhayward 7y ago
This is a useless bit of pedantry. The exponential portion of the sigmoid curve is the only part that matters to human health, survival, and economic well-being.
393.
by jhayward 7y ago
> I'm sorry, but in the real world you have to make predictions in order to make decisions. I'll overlook the implication that I don't live in the 'real world'. What the statement means is that just because yo
394.
by jhayward 7y ago
I think this makes the mistake of thinking there is such a thing as a global infection rate. There are instead a couple of hundred separate epidemics, each with its own R0 and trajectory. It’s also dangerously wrong, but human nature, to l
395.
by jhayward 7y ago
This may be a true statement when applied to public health professionals, but is quite likely dangerous to public welfare when in the hands of disinformation campaigns and propaganda.
396.
by jhayward 7y ago
Data from Wuhan was that in the early phase of the epidemic about 70% of infections were transmitted at home. Once they realized this, they went to rapid isolation of positive tests and quarantine of contacts in “COVID hotels” away from ho
397.
by jhayward 7y ago
> all dinosaur DNA has been destroyed for millions of years .. Except for the DNA that has survived and been passed down to living species today.
398.
by jhayward 7y ago
At roughly 10% infected the epidemic curve is in the steeply exponential portion of the curve, not the flattened end. And, as a request, perhaps you could glance at the 'principle of charity' and choose some other term than '
399.
by jhayward 7y ago
Thanks for the clarification, I wasn't successful in reading your original comment that way.
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by jhayward 7y ago
Do you mean 'morale', or 'moral'? I'm not sure why you would run away from someone who's going through a low morale patch, we all get them. Seems like it would be the mark of a shallow individual to just aband
401.
by jhayward 7y ago
You mean kind of a chaos monkey, but for people?
402.
by jhayward 7y ago
"Sovereign is he who decides the exception"[1]. It's a classic authoritarian/totalitarian posture. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Schmitt#Political_Theolog...
403.
by jhayward 7y ago
James Burke, and Richard Rhodes as well, are the reason I began to see history as something important and useful, a way of understanding both "how science happens" as well as "why our society is the way it is". This know
404.
by jhayward 7y ago
It's not the variance, it's the worst-case analysis that is helpful. You take decisions that lower the worst-case outcome. Sure, there is lots that can be said about COVID-19. Epidemiology is a fairly well-studied field, and we
405.
by jhayward 7y ago
> you can't buy pandemic insurance generally Wimbledon has been buying pandemic insurance for 24 years. $2 million per year. They're going to be paid by their insurer about $141 million.[1] There is a whole industry of re-i
406.
by jhayward 7y ago
Yes, this is Antibody Dependent Enhancement[1], which is also something that any vaccine will have to rule out through human trials. These sorts of immune system traps and pitfalls are why vaccine testing takes so long. [1] https:/&#
407.
by jhayward 7y ago
> COVID-19 isn't the fault of an airline or hotel company Airlines spent a decade doing stock buybacks, some with past bailout money. The amount they spent on buybacks is just about exactly how much they want from the US bailout.
408.
by jhayward 7y ago
It does matter. We can easily repair retirement programs without enriching the rentier class. If we don’t allow the funds and enterprises to go bankrupt we are damaging capitalism and just running socialism for the rich. We have to allow
409.
by jhayward 7y ago
> it's a disaster for retirees who hold a majority of savings in equities This is somewhat of a red herring, often used to deflect from the fact that the top 1% of the wealthy own about 50% of all equities, and the top 10% own abo
410.
by jhayward 7y ago
Agree. I think a better exposition on COVID-19 models is Zenep Tufecki's article in The Atlantic [1]. TLDR: They're more directional roadmaps, showing you which possible outcome paths you need to prune off the tree of outcomes, n
411.
by jhayward 7y ago
I'm reminded of this apt tweet [1] > If a Type I error is a false positive, a Type II error is a false negative, and a Type III error is getting the right answer to the wrong question, is a Type IV error GIVING IMPORTANT CONCEPTS N
412.
by jhayward 7y ago
That is not an honest and accurate recitation of the facts.
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by jhayward 7y ago
He was exposed 18 days before he was ordered to quarantine. Please do not try to say that there is some factual basis.
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by jhayward 7y ago
You mean like, most of the companies in Europe?
415.
by jhayward 7y ago
The studies of droplet dispersal are laboratory, not field studies. And they are imperfect models of how the virus is transmitted in the actual field. We are being given many many natural experiments. Posts like the parent here, claiming
416.
by jhayward 7y ago
Ok, but remember these are the folks who were delivering the $100+/gallon of fuel to FOBs in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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by jhayward 7y ago
Would you care to guess what the cost of moving goods via that resource would be? You may be astounded. It's still cheaper and more effective to use commercial, even if the price has gone up.
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by jhayward 7y ago
> The radius of distribution is smaller (6 feet) The article says that 45 people out of a group of 60, in a large room with chairs spaces at least a foot apart and twice as many chairs as people, all became infected without any physica
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by jhayward 7y ago
He has a quote from somewhere that I can't locate at the moment which is (paraphrased) "any new reactor design is always safer and more efficient than existing designs, until they get built, which is when they become expensive and
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by jhayward 7y ago
Just because the article doesn't tie everything up in a nice back and white bow doesn't mean it is low quality. The answer to the question is "we don't know, it's complicated". It's not a screenplay we&#x

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