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Agree. I think a better exposition on COVID-19 models is Zenep Tufecki's article in The Atlantic [1]. TLDR: They're more directional roadmaps, showing you whic

Agree. I think a better exposition on COVID-19 models is Zenep Tufecki's article in The Atlantic [1]. TLDR: They're more directional roadmaps, showing you which possible outcome paths you need to prune off the tree of outcomes, not exact numerical predictions. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coron...

dekhn 7y ago
In a sense, much of this work is similar to A* search and reinforcement learning. You have a limited view of the world, the responses to your actions are not directly causal, but if you can use the data you have to make reasoned decisions on what parts of the (extremely large) action space are unlikely to pay off, you can avoid wasting resources on them.
sesuximo 7y ago
It's hard to use a roadmap with this much variance. Is there anything that can be said with certainty about covid
- jhayward 7y ago
  It's not the variance, it's the worst-case analysis that is helpful. You take decisions that lower the worst-case outcome. Sure, there is lots that can be said about COVID-19. Epidemiology is a fairly well-studied field, and we have experience with aerosol-transmitted respiratory viruses. We have a pretty good feel for the transmissibility, getting better all the time. Pretty good feel for the disease course, and getting more specific about the different phases of treatment all the time. Pretty good feel for the R0 in many conditions, and the serial interval, and so on. "Is there anything that can be said with certainty" is a dangerous position to be pushing on the public. It is the very thing that autocrats and dictators try to induce in populations through propaganda and disinformation, so that reason and self-help are surrendered. When there is no way to know truth, truth is what the Leader says it is. And we don't want to go there.
  - sesuximo 7y ago
    I don't think it makes sense to shoot for the least bad worst case. How about the best average case.

dekhn 7y ago

In a sense, much of this work is similar to A* search and reinforcement learning. You have a limited view of the world, the responses to your actions are not directly causal, but if you can use the data you have to make reasoned decisions on what parts of the (extremely large) action space are unlikely to pay off, you can avoid wasting resources on them.

sesuximo 7y ago

It's hard to use a roadmap with this much variance. Is there anything that can be said with certainty about covid

jhayward 7y ago
It's not the variance, it's the worst-case analysis that is helpful. You take decisions that lower the worst-case outcome. Sure, there is lots that can be said about COVID-19. Epidemiology is a fairly well-studied field, and we have experience with aerosol-transmitted respiratory viruses. We have a pretty good feel for the transmissibility, getting better all the time. Pretty good feel for the disease course, and getting more specific about the different phases of treatment all the time. Pretty good feel for the R0 in many conditions, and the serial interval, and so on. "Is there anything that can be said with certainty" is a dangerous position to be pushing on the public. It is the very thing that autocrats and dictators try to induce in populations through propaganda and disinformation, so that reason and self-help are surrendered. When there is no way to know truth, truth is what the Leader says it is. And we don't want to go there.
- sesuximo 7y ago
  I don't think it makes sense to shoot for the least bad worst case. How about the best average case.