jbay808

89 ms·

841.
by jbay808 6y ago
Landing in another country is one of the scenarios where you're most likely to be unable to access telecommunications. For example, you find your internet provider doesn't work internationally, you can't enable roaming withou
842.
by jbay808 6y ago
Thank you very much for saying so! It's a philosophy I've assembled myself from many sources, so there's no one book about it, but definitely a lot of sources of inspiration. My understanding of the nature of time comes mainl
843.
by jbay808 6y ago
It's funny you put it this way. I have the same philosophy and am agnostic. Here's how I'd express it. Causality is a concept that exists within a universe, because it's bound to time, which also a concept that exists w
844.
by jbay808 6y ago
This is a fascinating article, but I'm bookmarking it for the unreadable graphs. It will be a great example for future presentations.
845.
by jbay808 6y ago
I think you're right; it could be either. In this example, if their fear of dogs causes them to misperceive a dog's excitement as anger, then it's closer to the scenario in the article. But if their paranoia is such that they
846.
by jbay808 6y ago
I think you're reading that implication in, when it wasn't there. Nobody can know with certainty what's really true or false, and the author isn't claiming to know either or judge people for disagreeing. We can only work
847.
by jbay808 6y ago
A lot of the time, this might not be a property of the update process so much as the prior itself. A conspiracy theory is often something that can explain any lack of observational evidence for itself (because it's covered up!). If the
848.
by jbay808 6y ago
I think the author only means you're "doomed" in the sense that "your fate is sealed": you'll find it very hard to change your mind in the face of contrary evidence, because your observations will start to feel
849.
by jbay808 6y ago
They're almost certainly using LiFePO4 chemistry, which tends to be pretty good for safety.
850.
by jbay808 6y ago
Largest in the world? It's 1/10th the pressure of the Mesta / Alcoa 50,000, which itself is still far from the largest... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoa_50,000_ton_forging_pre...
851.
by jbay808 6y ago
I agree, but at the moment, it seems that same desire to protect them results in preferring a policy that drives prices ever upward. This would be a less destructive compromise.
852.
by jbay808 6y ago
If the lognormal distribution is correct, the 95% confidence interval is a bit over 5 times the developer's gut-feeling estimate. The 99% confidence interval is 10 times the developer's gut-feel estimate. We found a lot of data to
853.
by jbay808 6y ago
Japan has a far more challenging environment for structures than many other countries, with high humidity, temperature swings, typhoons, and earthquakes being the obvious ones.
854.
by jbay808 6y ago
This company handled time tracking quite differently than most, because everyone was paid by the hour, even devs. The same time tracking system was used to track time spent on tickets as was used to by the accounting department to track hou
855.
by jbay808 6y ago
The idea here is just to be precise in what we're communicating, when providing a forecast, because different departments have different risk tolerances on that forecast. What the lognormal says is "it might even be done by late M
856.
by jbay808 6y ago
I think we're talking past each other. I'm not referring to a percentage of time being consumed by meetings and such; I'm referring to how frequently I'm asked to multitask because several urgent projects are going on at
857.
by jbay808 6y ago
Thanks, and I'm glad to hear you've found the same thing! So including the article, that makes at least three of us, it seems. I agree that it might not be terribly important practically, but I think it's interesting because
858.
by jbay808 6y ago
That depends on whether you're in a position to set priorities. I can tell you that something will take a week, but I can't tell you that it will be done next week unless I'm permitted to work exclusively on it this week.
859.
by jbay808 6y ago
Exactly, hence this endeavour! Where we discovered the secret map between the software developers' predictions and reality, which management worried was completely uncorrelated but it turned out to just be the lognormal distribution.
860.
by jbay808 6y ago
Fortunately, this was a tech-internal meeting; management was sympathetic and pretty tech savvy and understood the takeaway, if not all the math. They had been legitimately worried that the department was not capable of holding to commitmen
861.
by jbay808 6y ago
That's one reason, but economies of scale are another. If the movement to reject technology you don't own gained traction, the cost of joining that movement would also come down.
862.
by jbay808 6y ago
In this case, the time tracking was done in a very fine-grained way; you'd log your working time against a given ticket or other thing. So if you got interrupted to go to a meeting or something, that time got logged to the meeting, not
863.
by jbay808 6y ago
> A reasonable model for the “blowup factor” (actual time divided by estimated time) would be something like a log-normal distribution. Interestingly, we did extensive time tracking on a multi-year in-house software project and collected
864.
by jbay808 6y ago
I start with Wikipedia's list of maximum entropy distributions, pick the one that best represents the category for the kind of thing I'm reasoning about, and then update it with what data I happen to have. It's usually simple
865.
by jbay808 6y ago
Maybe the government can raise rates and offer some kind of refund to people who bought their first house in the last year? Otherwise, the number of people in that "put their life savings as a downpayment on an overpriced house" c
866.
by jbay808 6y ago
> But, this describes maybe a few dozen housing markets. Probably only a couple dozen if you cut out resort/ski towns. It's a regional problem It, uh, describes all of Canada actually. https://www.reuters.com/ar
867.
by jbay808 6y ago
That would be awesome. Unfortunately, young people also don't have money. That's the time period when many people feel a lot of pressure to accumulate savings -- often, that might specifically be so that they can afford to raise a
868.
by jbay808 6y ago
> But, overall, the single biggest event to impact the era was probably the Mongol sacking of Baghdad. Just goes to show how Eurocentric my history education was; I never heard about this. Fascinating.
869.
by jbay808 6y ago
No. That's a very clever and cynical viewpoint but realistically, none of us cared about that. It's not like these were peers in the same lab whose opinion mattered. Nor did anyone really have a strong opinion about meyers briggs
870.
by jbay808 6y ago
Yes, I mentioned in the next line that it doesn't sort evenly, and INTJ is particularly a minority.

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