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That depends on whether you're in a position to set priorities. I can tell you that something will take a week, but I can't tell you that it will be done next w

That depends on whether you're in a position to set priorities. I can tell you that something will take a week, but I can't tell you that it will be done next week unless I'm permitted to work exclusively on it this week.

kqr 6y ago
Nobody is ever able to work exclusively on a thing for stretches of a week. I'd suggest starting to keep track of how much of your time you can take to work on the thing you work on. If it's between 30 % and 90 %, include that factor in your estimation procedure.
- jbay808 6y ago
  I think we're talking past each other. I'm not referring to a percentage of time being consumed by meetings and such; I'm referring to how frequently I'm asked to multitask because several urgent projects are going on at once. New priorities are added unpredictability, and sometimes I'm asked to clear all other work off my plate to fight some fire. Of course that's a sign of trouble, but it's natural for the stage this company is at. (Note: different company than the one that did the lognormal study I mentioned a few posts ago, and a different role for myself, much more directly exposed to customer issues). In an environment like that, calendar estimates are completely nonsense because the priority list itself is volatile on the timescale of the estimate. But work estimates can still be stable; I can still accurately report that I have eight hours of work left on issue A, and when I provide that estimate along with work estimates on issues B and C which are also assigned as "top" priorities, management can use that to decide whether I'll finish issue this week or not. If you're sufficiently informed to know what your priorities will be on the timescale of an estimate, you can make reliable calendar estimates.
  - kqr 6y ago
    Maybe I fail to see the point of even bothering to estimate something that is so unimportant it can be (or even appears likely to be?) down-prio'd in favour of more important things so quickly. Could you explain in what stage to switch between things so quickly few things are ever finished, and why it makes sense to estimate those things at all, in that context?
    - edoceo 6y ago
      Early stage, need effort-budget to CBA vs risk to build calendar estimate.

kqr 6y ago

Nobody is ever able to work exclusively on a thing for stretches of a week. I'd suggest starting to keep track of how much of your time you can take to work on the thing you work on. If it's between 30 % and 90 %, include that factor in your estimation procedure.

jbay808 6y ago
I think we're talking past each other. I'm not referring to a percentage of time being consumed by meetings and such; I'm referring to how frequently I'm asked to multitask because several urgent projects are going on at once. New priorities are added unpredictability, and sometimes I'm asked to clear all other work off my plate to fight some fire. Of course that's a sign of trouble, but it's natural for the stage this company is at. (Note: different company than the one that did the lognormal study I mentioned a few posts ago, and a different role for myself, much more directly exposed to customer issues). In an environment like that, calendar estimates are completely nonsense because the priority list itself is volatile on the timescale of the estimate. But work estimates can still be stable; I can still accurately report that I have eight hours of work left on issue A, and when I provide that estimate along with work estimates on issues B and C which are also assigned as "top" priorities, management can use that to decide whether I'll finish issue this week or not. If you're sufficiently informed to know what your priorities will be on the timescale of an estimate, you can make reliable calendar estimates.
- kqr 6y ago
  Maybe I fail to see the point of even bothering to estimate something that is so unimportant it can be (or even appears likely to be?) down-prio'd in favour of more important things so quickly. Could you explain in what stage to switch between things so quickly few things are ever finished, and why it makes sense to estimate those things at all, in that context?
  - edoceo 6y ago
    Early stage, need effort-budget to CBA vs risk to build calendar estimate.