jbay808

52 ms·

601.
by jbay808 5y ago
Your objection was that his prediction was "often below". You can see that a big part of this is 1991-1995, as his volcano guess was a few years late. This chart is to the same scale as in the realclimate link. As of 2020, we&#x27
602.
by jbay808 5y ago
Two of the motors have to be synchronized together, because there are certain angles where either one or the other lose any torque transmission.
603.
by jbay808 5y ago
Yes, he didn't predict details like the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991. "Scenario C" was a rapid emissions tapering scenario, not a global lower bound for possible future temperatures. But if it makes you feel better, if you
604.
by jbay808 5y ago
> the models which do not have a good record of maching actual data They don't? Which models are you referring to? The model forecast in James Hansen's 1988 congressional testimony was almost spot on. https://www.rea
605.
by jbay808 5y ago
Maybe I don't understand the bets because they weren't clearly spelled out. Even if HN markdown was actually what held GDP back from 5% growth, you wouldn't be able to tell. The government asked for market "on whether or
606.
by jbay808 5y ago
Doesn't that still incentivize counterparties to do whatever they can to undermine GDP growth? Just by X% less.
607.
by jbay808 5y ago
Wait, that can't work; it's comparing against a counterfactual. Let's say Hacker News gets markdown. Also COVID disappears at the same time. GDP goes up by 1%, but maybe that's because COVID is gone. How do we know what
608.
by jbay808 5y ago
Probably somewhere in the middle range of this graph: https://xkcd.com/1732/
609.
by jbay808 5y ago
(Mortgage interest rates went up greatly between 1975 and 1980, but setting that aside...) These days it's hard to imagine not borrowing as much as possible because prices are so high and rates are below inflation. But back then why wo
610.
by jbay808 5y ago
Canada is like this too, except the trend never got interrupted by 2008. By now our bubble is in the stratosphere by comparison.
611.
by jbay808 5y ago
It wasn't Stephen Pinker who wrote the headline, it was the NYT editors. And I guess they've decided that Stephen Pinker thinks you're wrong about X gets more of a reaction than Stephen Pinker thinks I'm wrong about X
612.
by jbay808 5y ago
A more accurate title would be "Stephen Pinker Thinks [the Author's] Sense of Imminent Doom is Wrong". He is refuting the author's sense that a cluster of crises implies imminent doom , not that there might be other r
613.
by jbay808 5y ago
Someone still had to discover it though!
614.
by jbay808 5y ago
I find that scattering rocket soldiers randomly about the map and one's base is a far better and cheaper anti-air defense than building dedicated SAM sites. A small investment makes aircraft almost useless. But I'm pretty inexperi
615.
Lanchester's Laws in AoE2 [video](youtube.com)
2 points by jbay808 5y ago|0 comments
616.
by jbay808 5y ago
The formalization of this is "Lanchester's Laws", equations that estimate the strength of unit numbers. Here is an excellent video explaining these laws in the context of Age of Empires 2: https://youtu.be/wpj
617.
by jbay808 5y ago
I'm increasingly of the opinion that control theory is the right framework to apply here. The very existence of business cycles suggests that the economy has "underdamped poles", and perhaps a more forward-looking central ban
618.
by jbay808 5y ago
You can actually create negative interest paper bank notes without needing cryptocurrency. One example is stamp scrip, where one must pay a recurring fee to maintain the note's validity: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki&
619.
by jbay808 5y ago
The trouble with this definition is that as it defines tech as an advantage , it intrinsically depends on what your competitors are doing. Is Netflix still a tech company when Disney (incumbent) now offers similar tech? Does Netflix still
620.
by jbay808 5y ago
My local library has had the same service for about equally long. The only difference is that instead of ordering them to my house, I order them to the nearest branch and then I walk in and pick it up whenever I feel like it. Then I drop th
621.
by jbay808 5y ago
Einstein's major breakthrough in special relativity wasn't a mathematical discovery, but his intuitive mental model of the impossibility of racing against a light beam. The mathematical transformation that follows from that had al
622.
by jbay808 5y ago
> At heart, Faraday was an experimentalist This is often repeated, but I think it's a misleading label. Faraday doesn't get nearly enough credit for his theoretical prowess -- probably because he didn't develop his theorie
623.
by jbay808 5y ago
Great analysis, just one point: > The solution is that prices should go up Prices at resellers are going up of course, but there's a reason why TI, On Semi, Nexperia, etc might prefer to stock out at a low price than to have product
624.
by jbay808 5y ago
The strange thing is that they built the exact opposite of building 20: an expensive, delicate, complicated building where the grad students wouldn't dare pick up a sledgehammer to run some ethernet cables through a wall in a hurry. Ho
625.
by jbay808 5y ago
I would guess that the GP means designing such that your board accepts multiple footprints for compatible parts, so that if your first choice of op amp (or voltage regulator, etc) goes out of stock you can populate another one. That might b
626.
by jbay808 5y ago
Funny, 30% is also about how much larger the Yamato was than the Iowa class. But it turned out larger battleships weren't the deciding factor that time. Who knows whether larger carriers will matter for winning the next war?
627.
by jbay808 5y ago
I think the wide availability of US and British war stories, tales, and legends, relative to those of other countries, is probably due to them being in English. I'm sure every side has their stories of cunning tricks they pulled, darin
628.
by jbay808 5y ago
When I went to high school in Canada, this analysis was more or less the standard treatment of the subject. I'm surprised you're getting downvoted.
629.
by jbay808 5y ago
When I want to find new things I listen to Classical King FM (they stream online here). I find they have really good taste. https://www.king.org/ Whenever I hear something I like, I write down the piece and the conductor&#x
630.
by jbay808 5y ago
When I first visited Japan, the wide variety of conveniently available unsweetened tea in vending machines was one of the things I really wished I could take back home with me.

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