irq11

22 ms·

151.
by irq11 6y ago
Yeah, I read that anecdote, too. Saying “many people” is meaningless. A tenth of a percent of a million people is a thousand people. That’s “many people”, but the rate is quite low. Facts: in the US, the hospitalization rate for covid is ar
152.
by irq11 6y ago
This is not an unknown. We have very good data on outcomes. The media has been diving ever-further into niche stories of bad outcomes in order to drive clicks, but the numbers of cases driving these narratives are vanishingly small. For the
153.
by irq11 6y ago
No, that’s not the way it works. If you want to take people’s livelihoods away from them, you have to justify the seizure, not the other way around. Hypotheses don’t count. Provide actual scientific proof. You’re ruining people’s lives.
154.
by irq11 6y ago
” There is a high risk of infection and relatively little benefit. It is probably better, for society as a whole, to pay the unemployment payments and have long hair for a while.” Citation absolutely required . We’re talking about people
155.
by irq11 6y ago
Ok, so you’re taking one paper and assuming it is correct, and using that to dismiss more recent data. Keep in mind that not even two weeks ago, the best estimate of IFR in China was 0.66%. It keeps dropping. Also, the confidence interval o
156.
by irq11 6y ago
”One of the main points of flattening the curve was to minimise the risk of overwhelming (particularly) health services by ensuring that pressure was spread out over time. Overwhelmed health services = people dying” You are illustrating t
157.
by irq11 6y ago
Who are “people”? Who is defining “optimistic”, and “plausible”? Where are you getting these numbers? The LA study implies a ratio of 30-50x the number of confirmed cases. Even at the high end of that range, given the current confirmed infe
158.
by irq11 6y ago
Nobody wants to “tank the economy”, but lots of panicky people are on HN and reddit, every day, calling for extensions of these lockdowns “because people are dying!” , even though the original pretense was quite different (“flattening th
159.
by irq11 6y ago
Try 1 in 600. There are also huge error bars on that ratio, because the denominator (population size of New York), is a rough estimate, at best. In any case, this is nit-picking: the obvious source of error here is trying to cross-apply the
160.
by irq11 7y ago
I don’t know why you’d write a snarky comment. You’re confirming what I said: the virus is still spreading in Korea.
161.
by irq11 7y ago
Directly from the article. It’s the lower-bound estimate for confirmed to infected found by the study. You should read it before commenting.
162.
by irq11 7y ago
I am well aware of the numbers in South Korea. The virus is still spreading. There are still new cases, every day. We have managed to eliminate one human virus in history: smallpox. And we only did that through mass vaccination. We have nev
163.
by irq11 7y ago
No, you’re still shifting the goalposts. The point of “flattening the curve” is not — and was never — to reduce the area under the curve . This is a contagious respiratory virus, and it’s going to spread until there is herd immunity. May
164.
by irq11 7y ago
This simply isn’t possible, and it’s a maddeningly irresponsible shifting of the goalposts. The public was sold these extreme tactics on the basis of preventing excess deaths, not locking down society for years on end until the virus (hop
165.
by irq11 7y ago
You have no reason to believe that the Santa Clara CFR is correct, and dividing the CFR of one city by the IFR of another is meaningless.
166.
by irq11 7y ago
Except that a huge portion of those deaths are in places that may have already reached herd immunity, if the ratio of comfirmed / actual cases is as small as this study suggests. NYC, for example, has 123k confirmed cases. Multiply by
167.
by irq11 7y ago
That is just nonsense. You don’t adjust for demographic bias in a sample by conditioning on a second parameter. There’s no universe in which underweighting the underweighted group makes any sense at all. Moreover, there isn any support fo
168.
by irq11 7y ago
There are no studies that have suggested anything like this. There simply has not been sufficient time to perform a study of the type needed to prove such a claim: you would need to gather a cohort of people that you know had the virus, w
169.
by irq11 7y ago
I cited the correct, current numbers for the entire state. You’re citing numbers released by the city where they haven’t confirmed cases, so it doesn’t answer the OP’s question.
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by irq11 7y ago
No. Currently >200k confirmed, <11k deaths in New York State. NY population is 18.8M. 0.05% of the population has died.
171.
by irq11 7y ago
The WHO report out of China made it clear that the majority of transmission was happening within households (ie outside of Wuhan; in Wuhan it makes sense that this would be the primary route). Most people weren’t transmitting by casual cont
172.
Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filter SARS–CoV-2 during coughs(annals.org)
5 points by irq11 7y ago|1 comments
173.
by irq11 7y ago
Yes, I know it’s a ratio. That’s why I used the term “numerator” and “denominator”. It’s not at all implausible that Italy has missed the vast majority of it’s cases, because they’re barely testing, and they’re not testing minor cases. It’s
174.
by irq11 7y ago
Yeah, I get it. It was implicit in the point I was making: we’re explicitly trading time for lives. Literally the fastest way to get this over with is to let it sweep through the population. More people might die if we did that, but it wo
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by irq11 7y ago
They also aren’t counting the huge number of mild or asymptomatic infections, which is orders of magnitude larger. There’s error in the numerator of the equation, but it’s swamped by the error in the denominator.
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by irq11 7y ago
”Joining some political death cult to sacrifice the weak and elderly portion of our population...isn't going to make the virus end any sooner” Barring the development of a vaccine (which is far from guaranteed, and a year or more awa
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by irq11 7y ago
Exactly. The documented incompetence is buried, because scared nurse quotes drive more clicks. If hospitals were/are driving infection counts in the Bronx, that’s a huge story , and deserves more attention.
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by irq11 7y ago
I’m seeing quotes like this regularly in the “interviews with nurses” genre of reporting: ”Many nurses and doctors have symptoms, like dry coughs, but are being denied tests and remain working, Ms. Norstein and other Montefiore health-care
179.
by irq11 7y ago
The “explicit guidance” is also minimally scientific: it varies from 1m in (parts of) Europe, to six feet in the US. These things are being made up on the fly. There is no solid science for how far apart people should be, and there are so m
180.
by irq11 7y ago
People just don’t get sigmoids. They don’t understand that herd immunity quickly starts to slow the local spread of a virus in a region, and that you can’t model the entire population of a country like bouncy balls in a box. Every country

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