hogFeast

68 ms·

541.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Your assumption is that I care about some random person on the internet thinking "the worst". The point is to highlight that people on here actually have this attitude, and it isn't sarcasm. How many politicians are saying Fa
542.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Exactly. Glad to hear someone has understood. Eliminate all sources of untruth in society. Truth will prevail.
543.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Hopefully you will see this a few days after the fact. Markets, and people generally, don't work like that. The exact logic varies with strategy but, in this case, people like strategies that involve picking up quarters in front of a s
544.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yes, it is so simple. News should only come from approved sources. Once the veracity has been checked by a Facebook employee, it is then empirically true or false. I don't know why people in the 21st century cannot understand that all
545.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yep, I worked in finance for years (investing capital) and I have bet on sports profitably for years. My point was actually nothing to do with superforecasting but superforecasting is obvious bullshit. Probabilities aren't computable i
546.
by hogFeast 6y ago
No, read his books. He says repeatedly: you cannot model the probability of these events, his strategy is to increase robustness to Black Swan events.
547.
by hogFeast 6y ago
The point of black swan events is that you can't account for them. Prediction is irrelevant because you cannot compute the probability of an event that has never occurred before. That is why you care about robustness, prediction is inh
548.
by hogFeast 6y ago
This isn't gambling, there is no money involved. But it is definitely true that this is different from betting generally: if I bet on a game, my bet doesn't change the outcome. In any social context, the probability on these marke
549.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I live in the UK. We had politicians who tried to appeal to reason, and they got shouted down in the media. The most popular politicians today are the ones who wanted to lockdown fastest. Everyone in care homes still died. We had to spend h
550.
by hogFeast 6y ago
The guy involved has left JPM, most of his team will have left too, they will have bonus payments clawed back, they will be banned from the industry, and are being charged criminally. Afaik, two people from this team are currently in prison
551.
by hogFeast 6y ago
You are correct. This was semi-frequent before 2008 but the spoofers were often individuals, and the exchange operators usually tolerated them because they did so much volume (Paul Rotter being the most famous). After 2008, the big algo tra
552.
by hogFeast 6y ago
FT Alphaville. I don't keep up with this stuff as much anymore but there is a lot out there if you are willing to invest the time (just follow the right people on Twitter, read good books, etc.).
553.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Reread both mine and yours again. You are quoting sections that weren't said together. Tragic.
554.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yep: I worked in finance for years, have degrees in economics...and their coverage is useful. To name one example of many, they were saying that JP Morgan was rigging commodities markets for years. I know people not in finance who heard tha
555.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yep, all I mentioned is that I didn't use FB and you leapt on that instantly (mention that you don't use FB, and people will think they know everything about your life). You're guess is incorrect (I love that you have conside
556.
by hogFeast 6y ago
The guy is complaining about incendiary content whilst repeatedly comparing Facebook to "Big Tobacco"...I think there is a lot of bombastic nonsense being thrown about. And I agree Facebook is not the first company in the world to
557.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Write bad code, and you will learn.
558.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I think stuff like the OP make this unclear to the layman. The reports that have been leaked are documents that banks are passing to law enforcement. They are evidence of banks attempting to stop crimes, not facilitating them. The issue is
559.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Er, you understand that the IRA was bombing UK cities? They bombed a hotel and almost killed the Prime Minister...yes, most Brits are very aware of the GFA (I am barely out of my 20s, and I lived in London and the constant bomb threats are
560.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I am always amazed by the poor comprehension ability of people on HackerNews. I am saying that credit isn't the point. Also, I am not entirely clear on why you would require $15/hour to volunteer at a charity...but...good for you
561.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yes, you are right. Because there is always someone else who is paid less than you who will run around and do the actual work whilst you take all the credit. Genius.
562.
by hogFeast 6y ago
You can also donate your time.
563.
by hogFeast 6y ago
For someone who is actually in the middle of doing this: Chris Hohn. He has built one of the largest charities in the UK, and I believe it is top 10 in the world. He has given away his net worth multiple times. His general story is also tot
564.
by hogFeast 6y ago
It wasn't. It was exactly the same. The issue was never that CA did this with "false pretences" (they didn't sign up users directly, that was done by an academic who then sold the data) or that by signing users up on you
565.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yes, basically accurate if you produce the same amount in less time...that is productivity growth. But: it isn't sustained productivity growth (it is one-time), there will be losses elsewhere in the economy (won't someone think of
566.
by hogFeast 6y ago
That isn't the case. First, I was talking about multi-decade, not how have they done in the last few hours. Second, their long-term returns haven't been good. They lagged the largest funds (largely because their strategy has mostl
567.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Just an anecdote but if you go to most baseball data departments, where there is real competition between teams, you don't just have PHds. You have people with undergrads/domain knowledge, and people with PHds. This isn't to
568.
by hogFeast 6y ago
This is just my general sense, as a very non-expert with more experience of doing than theory...but the benefit is someone knowing the theory AND being able to translate that into revenue. I think most people view the hard part as doing the
569.
by hogFeast 6y ago
What? Any price history you look at is going to be split-adjusted. And okay, you got a $1 of dividends...you only lost $29/share out of the $60 you invested.
570.
by hogFeast 6y ago
The size factor has lost money pretty consistently. It is also a very suspicious factor generally because there are very obvious non-risk factor explanations (i.e. liquidity). Just generally, FF do very irrational things with their models (

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