hogFeast

64 ms·

511.
by hogFeast 6y ago
What is up with potatoes? Within somewhat recent history, humans ate diets composed almost entirely of potatoes...it did not kill people in large numbers. Obesity in the case of countries like the US is largely due to an excess of calories.
512.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Do you know how many local govts tried to do similar things and it failed? Local govt is not the essential component here.
513.
by hogFeast 6y ago
The "silicon revolution" happened at Bell Labs, rising out of their need to replace vacuum tubes. Shockley only moved to SV because his mother lived there, and she was sick. And it just so happened that Terman invested heavily in
514.
by hogFeast 6y ago
That isn't how SBMM works. If you play a team with higher ELO, the amount of ELO you win/lose changes based on the skill differential. The eventual averaging is not how the algo finds your skill level. If you play a worse team tha
515.
by hogFeast 6y ago
FB is the place that everyone wants to work at in SF but in London you can make way more at other places.
516.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Ah, same principle. I have heard of many similar stories.
517.
by hogFeast 6y ago
None of that information is non-public (you can find cargo ship data online for free), none of it is particularly valuable (you are looking for information, it is hard to know how much information is in cargo ship movement...it depends), an
518.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I believe what you are referring to is the fix. Foreign exchange markets, that I am aware of, do not have closing auctions. I have heard of some quants trading foreign exchange markets, agreeing to trade at the fix with their counter-party,
519.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Also, prices aren't stationary. For an equity security, you are predicting the price for a company that is compounding capital over time. You can predict the price for the company at one point, the relative valuation for the company (f
520.
by hogFeast 6y ago
You are claiming that wearing a mask could be more dangerous than Covid...and you think I should be trying to convince you with logic? Bold.
521.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Population of the city was 500k at the time. I would guess it is smaller then but it is, of course, hard to know now.
522.
by hogFeast 6y ago
No, I am not. The underinvestment extends to the grid (the UK has trouble replacing power lines/maintenance, let alone moving towards adding new capacity...the UK has very few detached houses so this is going to be complex). And "
523.
by hogFeast 6y ago
London getting that lavish investment once again. The only place near me is a supermarket 15 minutes away.
524.
by hogFeast 6y ago
It isn't in the UK. There is very little surplus capacity in our grid. We started moving away from coal and subsidising green power years ago, and there has been chronic underinvestment in some areas as a result. A few years ago, it wa
525.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Something that helped me understand where frequentist logic sat was Computer Age Statistical Inference. A lot of the tools of frequentism were developed for a time that is quite different to our own. Just personally, I don't think freq
526.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Warehouses is another one (in addition to coworking). I am not sure how easy it would be to rezone (some places have an industrial category that is separate from office/residential) but being able to fulfill orders out of city-centres
527.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Agreed. Very hard to estimate that effect. With corporate real estate, it is inherently local (you cannot export an office) so the question is about the swings in vacancies. Have some markets seen ~15% vacancies before? Yes, corporate real
528.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I think you would see this occur. As inflexible as local government tends to be, they get the idea pretty quick when rich people start losing money. Where I am, tbf I am in the UK and the rules are likely nowhere as inflexible, but property
529.
by hogFeast 6y ago
This has happened every few years in corporate real estate for the past half century (Sam Zell's biography is a good take). Every. Single. Time. Valuations too high. Debt too high. Equity too low. I am pretty cynical because I have rea
530.
by hogFeast 6y ago
More downsizing. Where will it end? An office for ants? How can we expect workers to labor if they can't even fit in the building?
531.
by hogFeast 6y ago
A lot of the newer syndicates spread themselves quite thin afaik. They maybe don't have the contacts to get liquidity/early prices so they do lots of sports (Tennis and Cricket being two that appear to be growing...again, afaik).
532.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Dixon-Coles, Ntzoufras, McHale, there are a few papers on Bivariate models from German authors (Groll...so google "Groll bivaraite Poisson"). I would also understand ranking algorithms (there is a book called Who's #1?). Bear
533.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Professionals don't use retail bookies, they bet with Asian books who take action from sharps (Pinny, SBOBet, SingBet, IBC...although it varies, sometimes their lines are soft).
534.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Yep, Dixon-Coles is way out now. Generally, Poisson-based models don't work that well. They model some aspects of the game correctly but not others. And when it is bad, it is terrible (their paper was genius though, and changed the ind
535.
by hogFeast 6y ago
This is actually complex. But QE, in most cases but not all (for example, QE3) involved the purchase of assets from the non-bank sector, not purchases from banks (in the US, banks do not hold a large amount of US govt securities). When QE d
536.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Very simply: monetary policy works by getting banks/private sector to do things they wouldn't otherwise do. Digital currency removes banks from the equation. Instead of banks creating money by lending, central banks would create m
537.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Seems to be true where I am too. I picked up an x230 for cheap pre-Covid, and it looks like x220s are now selling for 75% more than I paid. I am sure that it is possible to get these computers. For example, lots of places are shutting down
538.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I understand that you can't think of an example...that is why I gave you an example (Thatcher relied almost totally on her policy unit because, again, literally everyone else hated her). I will give you another: under Cameron, everyone
539.
by hogFeast 6y ago
...right, but it isn't correct. Clement wasn't feigning disinterest, his interest was in not granting an annulment. And Henry was able to appoint Cranmer, he was able to dictate his domestic situation freely, he had no real influe
540.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Er, foreign exchange trades close to $7trn/day. Your $30k doesn't register.

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