hogFeast

50 ms·

361.
by hogFeast 5y ago
> A disabled lady thought saving some of her disability was the responsible thing to do, despite further impoverishing herself ??? So if I earn £100k/year, and I choose to save all of my income then I am impoverishing myself. Do you
362.
by hogFeast 5y ago
No, the welfare state doesn't receive "the largest fraction" of your taxes. Thinking this is a bit of a meme in the UK. The largest category of spending is actually the state pension (which is partly funded by direct revenue)
363.
by hogFeast 5y ago
What is the functional difference then? Your comment elides the point that almost everyone who wants UBI views at this mythical source of extra money from nowhere. The UK already has a welfare state, we have Universal Credit which is basica
364.
by hogFeast 5y ago
But does that apply to family offices? It sounds a lot like he was personally liable for these trades, which would explain why he appeared to be leveraged more than 10 to 1.
365.
by hogFeast 5y ago
The swaps are the lending instrument. He used CFDs which are a type of OTC derivative. Instead of buying the stock, you put up some margin and (usually) promise to swap cash daily based on the movement in an underlying stock (or basket of s
366.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Leverage constraints are one of the primary sources of market inefficiency. I don't know who you think the house is...is it the investment banks? They are holding the bag for $5bn+.
367.
by hogFeast 5y ago
When ARKK blows up it will precipitate a change in how some ETFs operate. ARKK is basically Archegos-lite (with retail investors bag-holding, not investment banks), they have invested heavily in a few stocks, have cornered the price, and wh
368.
by hogFeast 5y ago
I am not saying that analytics cannot be applied. I have been making money applying analytics to football for years. But analytics is not some machine that you just cram data into and out come the best players. That may work with baseball i
369.
by hogFeast 5y ago
It isn't. Again, football is not like American Football or the NBA where, for different reasons, you can buy one player and win it all. It is very possible to produce a winning team (although not one that will likely win the league) co
370.
by hogFeast 5y ago
The Andy Carrol purchase? Liverpool's process clearly developed over time.
371.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Football isn't like American sports. Arsenal bought an analytics company (more than one iirc), and did absolutely nothing with it. Man City are only just getting into the area. Liverpool have been doing it for a while (with fairly mixe
372.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Correct, which is why I said you have to look at demand. Velocity tells you nothing, it isn't an input. Also, you are wrong about prices not increasing "in reaction to possible buyers". If we lived in the fabulous world of ra
373.
by hogFeast 5y ago
I have no idea why so many people quote velocity but it is an output, not an input. Saying that velocity is falling when supply isn't interesting or relevant. The question is whether supply is growing in excess of demand (as ever).
374.
by hogFeast 5y ago
You should use 150 years across multiple countries i.e. 150 years * N countries. In-sample annual probability of Weimar is well under 0.5% so it is still a tricky topic to reason about even if you have a bigger sample.
375.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Yes, it does but through that centralization of accounts, you are fundamentally changing how monetary policy operates (again, the concept of high-powered money changes totally...we are talking about the most fundamental aspects of how monet
376.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Central banks can only create high powered money. How high powered money gets intermediated into actual economic activity is probably one of the largest unknown factors in central banking/monetary policy. This would, in theory, remove
377.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Yes, tech firms incinerate capital on these deals (generally, Google particularly). It is confusing cause and effect: these firms are large (with little to no shareholder oversight), and so can spend large amounts of money on useless acquis
378.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Essentially all of their tech was taken from Robin Li and AltaVista/DEC. Brin did a lot of the implementation work, Page did nothing (a lot of the work he did do, didn't scale, and was highly inferior to existing work as he wasn&#
379.
by hogFeast 5y ago
There also appear to have been consultants looking for work. Where you find consultants, you find solutions to imagined problems...only a consultant can really tell you what those damnable zoomers are thinking, they are basically Martians.
380.
by hogFeast 5y ago
> Prices on Amazon UK are also out of control ...they are not. Sale last week for 8TB at £14/TB. I would say that prices are marginally higher than they were a few weeks ago...average prices are probably £16/TB at the top consu
381.
by hogFeast 5y ago
> The common interpretation is that it began to get sharply more divisive over time starting in the mid-1990s, not that the current level of division established itself then. I didn't say anything about the current level of division
382.
by hogFeast 5y ago
The standard interpretation is that politics became more divisive in the mid-90s...but, imo, that doesn't hold merit. Clinton worked with Republicans after he lost Congress. Obama worked with a Republican Congress. And you can go furt
383.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Yes, and I am saying this is a weird thing for a human to do (the explanation here is that the person was the one contributing to the list, and is overcompensating). Making of lists of funny names is not the first step to genocide. Genocide
384.
by hogFeast 5y ago
> Life is about so much more than politics As someone who isn't from the US, it is very hard to comprehend. There is a meme about Americans. You meet an American, and ten minutes later they are drilling you about politics. And I und
385.
by hogFeast 5y ago
That isn't what they said. What they said was: people who created the list went off on some weird tangent about the list being the first step towards genocide, if you have a problem with the list, you shouldn't contribute to the l
386.
by hogFeast 5y ago
...I have come across quite a few execs with a prostitute habit...in no cases has it been unrelated to their job performance (and btw, I live somewhere where it is legal...it is usually correlated to either sex addiction and/or other a
387.
by hogFeast 5y ago
No, my point is that having a high inheritance tax leads to improved efficiency of capital markets. The Lee family have relied on literally illegal manoeuvres (they rigged a shareholder vote on an subsidiary acquisition) to maintain control
388.
by hogFeast 5y ago
I would look at what the Lee family has done at Samsung. How well did they steward capital? So well, that the share price rose significantly when Lee Kun-hee actually died, and it looked like they would finally lose control. Kun-hee seemed
389.
by hogFeast 5y ago
The Samsung family have been engineering this for about two decades. Lee Kun-hee was convicted twice for stuff relating to this. The issue they have is retaining control over Samsung whilst having to pay inheritance tax. This is why the sto
390.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Yep, I agree (I was short the stock). But the question is whether lying about FSD was a big part of the raise? I don't think it was, back then everyone assumed he was full of shit because he talked literal nonsense almost constantly (t

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