hogFeast

51 ms·

391.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Okay, and what was the market cap then? The valuation wasn't contingent on FSD happening (I do agree with your general point, my understanding of fraud is that making those claims knowing they were impossible is fraud, so the question
392.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Being very popular does not mean that you are not subject to laws. It is unquestionable at this point that a very large number of rules have been broken. Just on the securities fraud: Musk has committed securities fraud multiple times and h
393.
by hogFeast 5y ago
I have no idea how they can legally get away with this. Seriously, how is this legal? Charge $10k for pixie dust. Even for SV, this is an unbelievable abuse of consumers.
394.
by hogFeast 5y ago
It is important to distinguish between malls and other types of property. Malls were built around cornerstone tenants, and the idea was agglomeration: one big tenant, lots of small single units, everyone wins. The death of malls is due to (
395.
by hogFeast 5y ago
The people shorting malls have already made out like bandits. Mall operators are very close to bankruptcy. Macerich down 85% in the past five years, Simon down 70%, Alexander Baldwin down 70%...it is already over. Once these places lose the
396.
by hogFeast 5y ago
They still ask these questions...they were asking them in the 2000s, I actually assumed they stopped asking this stuff. They demonstrate absolutely nothing. All they test for is whether you know enough about the recruiting process to know t
397.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Target date funds are least bad...if they are composed of ETFs. It isn't worth looking at individual stocks. If you want another layer of diversification: add a different asset class (for example, more bonds), or add more geographical
398.
by hogFeast 5y ago
Not in the US. Unbelievably, there aren't specific rules against falsifying returns if you are careful with how you present them (for example, the CFA, the main accreditation for fund managers, just has a "code of conduct"...
399.
by hogFeast 5y ago
No. If anything, they are going to be more irrational. The incentives for most advisers are horrible. Ymmv, if you have a good adviser then great. But I used to work in this area, and even in my first real job (not my first job in the indus
400.
by hogFeast 5y ago
A simple way to think about this: everyone in society has a portfolio of assets, they allocate to that portfolio based on risk/return/liquidity/etc, and the most important ratio here is cash to assets. At this stage in the cy
401.
by hogFeast 6y ago
If you feed a child mouse food, I am sure they will get stupider too. There is no information here.
402.
by hogFeast 6y ago
There are some valid reasons for using fingerprinting. In the UK, gambling companies use fingerprinting to enforce exclusion lists (i.e. gambling addicts who self-exclude from gambling websites), and stop people from outside the UK gambling
403.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Correct. That is the gap in understanding here. When I place a bet, I can estimate my edge because the outcome is binary. When the outcome is continuous, it is far more tricky. It is like saying a kid who learns to ride his trike is ready f
404.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Lol. He must have never met anyone who has bet full Kelly.
405.
by hogFeast 6y ago
A tiny firm managing under $100m uses Kelly...and... The post you replied to is right. The fundamental principle of Kelly is that you know your edge, in the markets that is mostly untrue. Funds will volatility-weight their portfolio but thi
406.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Last I checked Tata had quite a few engineers working for them...is that accurate?
407.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Resignations are not independent. At all.
408.
by hogFeast 6y ago
"Corporate drones" aren't replacable. CEOs are, you can find almost anyone willing to a sub-standard job for $1m/year...the supply is really infinite. The issue with high employee turnover is they are producing your prod
409.
by hogFeast 6y ago
If you were CEO that was worth $50m/year why would you work for anyone else? I have met almost no CEOs who were actually skilled AND were happy working for someone else. If you are worth $50m/year to the company, you are worth sub
410.
by hogFeast 6y ago
If you short the most expensive CEOs, you will do very well. I have been doing this for a long time. Weak CEOs are a prime source of alpha because the irrational behaviour that leads to them becoming CEOs (like thinking you need to pay 2x t
411.
by hogFeast 6y ago
They aren't. In almost every case I have seen, the big CEO job will be the peak of that person's career. And CEOs are not like top tier athletes. The comparison is ludicrous because most CEOs are paid like Lebron but have the skil
412.
by hogFeast 6y ago
That would be a correct theory if you assumed that Iran is a rational actor. There is no evidence this is the case. I would actually argue that NK is a fairly rational actor, if a slightly volatile one. Their "enemy" is Emmanuel G
413.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Sarcasm. Iran are, amazingly for such a small economy, a massive polluter and they would rather drop dead then stop selling oil (fighter jets don't pay for themselves, the military owns most of their economy). My point is: the nuclear
414.
by hogFeast 6y ago
It is odd... Iran has lots of energy resources, is a huge energy exporter, and has a ton of heavy polluting industry...but they are also investing heavily in nuclear energy? Odd.
415.
by hogFeast 6y ago
That is going to depend on what the rules are, and what rates you pay. But is tax-loss harvesting beyond the wit of everyone but WealthFront? No. If you aren't bothered to do it manually then it can't be a big benefit for you...it
416.
by hogFeast 6y ago
There are easier ways to say this: The issue was: there is no competition in Chinese banking because the state uses banks to hand out cheap loans/subsidise companies, part of this is paying depositors very low returns, Ant created comp
417.
by hogFeast 6y ago
Correct. What they are selling you is an asset allocation, this turns on it's head all the innovation since the early 90s...and the performance you likely get will be indistinguishable from what most people could achieve on their own.
418.
by hogFeast 6y ago
I don't understand how this view is still controversial. I worked in fund management: I have never seen people who were so overpaid (myself included) for doing so little. Fund managers are a net negative cost to the economy, and they e
419.
by hogFeast 6y ago
How do you think VCs are getting rich? IPOs and transactions are more profitable than building companies with sustainable business models (by definition, it is usually cheaper to buy a bad company, attempt to flip it in the capital cycle th
420.
by hogFeast 6y ago
If you bet on a liquid market, you will pay vig of something like 1-2%. Where I am, it is actually cheaper to bet (just think about how unbelievably fucked that is...you can see why VCs want to insert themselves into that) but in the US you

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