gloriosoc

10 ms·

1. 61.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   Or the initial antibodies drop in people that have had COVID over time (which they probably do). The antibody tests test for the kind of antibodies that are present immediately- over time a previously infected person will have less of those
2. 62.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   I don't think I did that?
3. 63.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   Yeah I had a paper in review at Nature Communications for two years, so yeah. Reviewers can ask for complicated follow up experiments that take time to do.
4. 64.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   This just came out https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.pa...
5. 65.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   Oh wait here we go- New York just released its antibody data. I just saw this when googling https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-an...
6. 66.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   Yes, and for some reason, NYC and the CDC are not releasing results later than mid April. It is very suspicious imo. They were releasing antibody results and then abruptly stopped without explanation.
7. 67.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels, which btw testing for Tcells is not widely available or commercial, would = herd immunity. So there is no result that would prove herd immunity.
8. 68.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   I have some ideas about why the last released Antibody data from NYC was in mid April. I'm pretty sure it's to do with politics and not science. Herd immunity is a bad look for a politician. But that is pure speculation.
9. 69.▲
   by gloriosoc 6y ago

   And actually there is a comment feature on the blog- so anyone can comment including my colleagues.
10. 70.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    That's a good idea- that too will take some time- writing a paper is not a small task but I will put it on the to do list.
11. 71.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Data source for "peer-reviewed studies that tend to reflect a nearly opposite conclusion"?
12. 72.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    And sadly, everyone has already died for the most part in NY, >30,000 people.
13. 73.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    There are parts of NYC with 68% positive antibodies a month ago- so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot more people in NY have been infected than is reported. But not sure I'm following your math from R0 5.6->80%?
14. 74.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Oh I never said anywhere could be safely opened back up- that's a leap. I say quite the opposite- people should be careful and not open schools until cases drop to near zero.
15. 75.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Also, how exactly would you prove herd immunity when we don't know the antibody threshold required? We also don't know that antibodies are the primary mode of immunity- could be T cells. So I'm not sure what kind of analysis
16. 76.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Can you think of another reason? The states with above ~30% infection rates are now trending down. They are not being more careful. Sometimes logic is that simple.
17. 77.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Oof now we are saying that my work is not of publishable quality? The data are from two days ago so it would be hard to get it peer reviewed in that time. But I do plan on publishing. I am putting it out there so people can make more inform
18. 78.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    yes agree. And the CDC reports there are 10X the cases of COVID than has been reported based on antibody studies. And there are many more deaths than have been reported https://realscience.community/2020/08/16&#x2F
19. 79.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    But that's also what I'm trying to do with the site- faster peer review through crowd sourcing (wiki style) but by verified scientists.
20. 80.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Good luck- you might be waiting a while. Peer review takes months to years. At that point it's too late for preventative strategies for a pandemic.
21. 81.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Can't imagine Florida is being careful enough that their herd immunity depends on masks
22. 82.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Well some do- MIT's paper, MIT Tech seems to https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity...
23. 83.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    This is what the MIT Tech has to say about Sweden (and I agree): "Lessons from Sweden Outside the US, researchers are also closely tracking the role of population immunity in national responses. Sweden, for example, did not impose a st
24. 84.▲
    by gloriosoc 6y ago

    Yep it's a new site, just created it:)
25. 85.▲
    Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states(realscience.community)

    71 points by gloriosoc 6y ago|194 comments