17 ms·

Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states

71 points by gloriosoc 6y ago

hnarn 6y ago
I block new domains via NextDNS, so if anyone's interested this domain was only registered 2020-07-31.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Yep it's a new site, just created it:)
newsbinator 6y ago
Does Sweden have herd immunity? They didn't lock down, but they did implement social distancing recommendations. Does Belarus have herd immunity? No lockdown, no social distancing to speak of, basically nobody wears a mask, er, anywhere. I see people in the centre of Minsk having face-to-face conversations all day long. And now there are tens of thousands of people protesting/yelling/hugging each other without masks. I very much hope the answer is yes and these countries do have something close to herd immunity. But that feels like wishful thinking.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  This is what the MIT Tech has to say about Sweden (and I agree): "Lessons from Sweden Outside the US, researchers are also closely tracking the role of population immunity in national responses. Sweden, for example, did not impose a strict lockdown, and saw a large number of deaths starting in April. Since then, however, the number of new infections has declined. The nation’s leaders said last week that children would go back to school unmasked. “I would say in Sweden there is no doubt that immunity plays an important role, more than in other countries,” says Britton. “Now this epidemic is slowly stopping.” https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity...
  - danielmarkbruce 6y ago
    I don't think you realize the quoting of MIT Technology Review isn't helping you. It's hurting.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      ? care to explain?
      - danielmarkbruce 6y ago
        MIT Technology Review says X is an appeal to authority. They aren't one. Hence it doesn't work. It also makes you seem naive.
    - aliswe 6y ago
      "helping you" ?
  - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
    Did you see the COVID death graph of Sweden? It is laughable and is heavily manipulated. It does not in anyway resemble the daily infection graph and doctored to look like the peak happened in April, and as if it had long been past by the time Tegnell made his daily briefings in July. God knows when we'll see the deaths that happened in July on that graph.
    - anoncake 6y ago
      Do you have any evidence besides that the graph doesn't match your intuition?
- hnick 6y ago
  As another comment said there is some implication that prior exposure to other coronaviruses (which would usually be identified as the common cold) can enable an effective immune response. If that works I wonder if such exposure is evenly distributed around the world or if it's clustered in certain populations? FWIW here in Australia Melbourne has had a fairly significant outbreak but Sydney hasn't, from what I can tell it's basically dumb luck it didn't happen the other way around.
- SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
  The situation with Belarus (as it is in almost every dictatorship), that both death statistics and infection are highly unreliable. Belarus might have actually acquired herd immunity, but then the death rate must be much, much higher than claimed by their government. Bishkek, in Kyrgyzstan also seem to be in a stable equilibrium, but they still have restriction measures. Sweden is a master manipulator with their stats. Look at their daily death graph, which does not in any way resemble the daily infection graph. They seem to have small second wave right now BTW. They may have herd immunity, and there is nothing embarrassing about this term. What is more interesting though, is how Finland in Norway have actually almost zero deaths these days, yet nowhere near the seroprevalence of Sweden.
tunesmith 6y ago
Should it be called herd immunity if it depends on current social practices of physical distancing and masking? Sure, you might have "effective herd immunity" in some regions, but those herd immunity percentage targets go up if people start interacting more.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Can't imagine Florida is being careful enough that their herd immunity depends on masks
  - tunesmith 6y ago
    So you're saying that places like NYC have reached natural herd immunity and can safely be opened back up? They reached an estimated R0 of 5.6 early on due to their population density. From that number, they'd have to reach > 80% infected to hit herd immunity. They got hit hard, but they're nowhere near that level. If they went back to normal all of a sudden, there'd be a lot more death.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Oh I never said anywhere could be safely opened back up- that's a leap. I say quite the opposite- people should be careful and not open schools until cases drop to near zero.
      - jachee 6y ago
        If the herd can't resume regular herd behavior without risking widespread infection, does it have immunity at all?
        gloriosoc 6y ago
        Eventually we will be able to but cases should drop further. Herd immunity doesn't mean zero spread, it means R<1 and dropping cases that will eventually become close to zero.
freehunter 6y ago
> This analysis and the conclusions that I have drawn are my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the wider scientific and medical communities. That’s an important point because the wider scientific and medical communities don’t agree with this analysis at all.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Well some do- MIT's paper, MIT Tech seems to https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity...
  - notacoward 6y ago
    They only seem to agree with the weaker claim that immunity plays a role in the patterns we're seeing, not the stronger claim that general herd immunity has been achieved anywhere. And it's a very brief superficial article, not exactly comparable to peer-reviewed studies that tend to reflect a nearly opposite conclusion.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Data source for "peer-reviewed studies that tend to reflect a nearly opposite conclusion"?
      - notacoward 6y ago
        You go first. You claimed there were others that agree with you, but that doesn't really seem to be true. Provide a serious citation, and I'll reciprocate.
        gloriosoc 6y ago
        The MIT tech is serious. MIT doesn't publish garbage science in their news paper.
Hnrobert42 6y ago
When it comes to CoVID-19 analysis, I prefer mine in the form of a peer-reviewed paper from a reputable journal.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Good luck- you might be waiting a while. Peer review takes months to years. At that point it's too late for preventative strategies for a pandemic.
  - Hnrobert42 6y ago
    Years? No. And if you want to improve the peer review process, lobby for paying reviewers (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-017-2310-5 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-017-2310-5). Regardless, I stand by my original point. I prefer peer-reviewed analysis. The alternative is a free-for-all where junk claims equal weight with legitimate science. Such a system is usually supported by folks whose work can’t make it through the traditional system.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Oof now we are saying that my work is not of publishable quality? The data are from two days ago so it would be hard to get it peer reviewed in that time. But I do plan on publishing. I am putting it out there so people can make more informed decisions (about schools etc) in real time.
      - bobosha 6y ago
        You could put this up on biorxiv and invite other researchers to comment.
        gloriosoc 6y ago
        That's a good idea- that too will take some time- writing a paper is not a small task but I will put it on the to do list.
subsubzero 6y ago
Some up to date news regarding T-cells and their implications suggest this in fact could be a thing with some of the harder hit states. Apparently T-cells will "remember" an infection after a person is exposed to and recovers from covid-19[1]. This is a huge development as it suggests that neutralizing antibodies are not the only defense against a reinfection of covid-19(and these antibodies only last a few months) whereas T-cell memory of infections lasts years. Also, there are some signs that other cornavirus family of viruses(common colds, not covid-19) could trigger a memory with these t cells, this is a possibility why some have extreme cases and others show no signs of sickness[2]. Couple these points with data showing 40% of people who contract the virus are asymptomatic[3] this leads to the idea that alot more people have had the virus than what is reported, which in this case is a good thing as its closer to herd immunity(if all the above is found to be true). [1] - https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immuni... [2] - https://www.livescience.com/common-cold-coronaviruses-t-cells-covid-19-immunity.html https://www.livescience.com/common-cold-coronaviruses-t-cell... [3] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomati...
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  yes agree. And the CDC reports there are 10X the cases of COVID than has been reported based on antibody studies. And there are many more deaths than have been reported https://realscience.community/2020/08/16/why-a-lot-more-people-have-died-from-covid-than-is-being-reported/ https://realscience.community/2020/08/16/why-a-lot-more-peop.... All reasons that we are closer to herd immunity than is the common perception.
  - DougN7 6y ago
    Doesn’t herd immunity for a country of 350 million need somewhere on the order of 220 million to have been exposed and recovered? I don’t think we’re anywhere near that yet.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
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theontheone 6y ago
This is barely even an article. You state a trend and then say herd immunity must be happening because... you cannot think of any other reason.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Can you think of another reason? The states with above ~30% infection rates are now trending down. They are not being more careful. Sometimes logic is that simple.
  - mr_toad 6y ago
    Infection rates could be grossly under reported. Younger males in particular are much less likely to seek treatment for a mild infection.
  - danielmarkbruce 6y ago
    "they are not being more careful" is likely a flawed assumption. Many, many more people are wearing masks now. Where I am, the % of people wearing masks went from low single digits in april/may to 90%+. I've visited a couple different cities and it's the same - massive increase in mask wearing. People are being more careful in many places.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      I think mask wearing and social distancing is slowing the spread in some places. CA and OH for example have seen a slow when more stringent policies were put into place. But I don't think Louisiana and Florida are being more careful and they are seeing a drop in cases.
      - ketamine__ 6y ago
        Observational research is not good enough for public policy. Look at the spike in cases in Japan. It completely destroys the correlation. > What do scientists do in the face of uncertainty on the value of global interventions? Usually, they seek an answer with adequately designed and swiftly implemented clinical studies as has been partly achieved with pharmaceuticals. We consider it is unwise to infer causation based on regional geographical observations as several proponents of masks have done. Spikes in cases can easily refute correlations, compliance with masks and other measures is often variable, and confounders cannot be accounted for in such observational research. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-...
smallgovt 6y ago
Interesting that this is flagged. There are almost no strong claims made in the article. Are people not open to a discussion about herd immunity?
- dang 6y ago
  I don't think it's an unreasonable submission (which, just to pre-empt some objections, is an orthogonal question to agree vs. disagree), and it's a bonus that the author is here to comment. We'll turn off the flags for now.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Thanks!
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  It means they'd have less to panic over. It means that everyone in this country would be in a better place (including Trump and that's not permissible to be said in this political environment).
smallgovt 6y ago
Isn't this hypothesis pretty easy to validate/falsify? Just take a random sample of 1K NY residents and test them for antibody/t-cell presence. 1K is plenty to make a statistically significant sample size when you're suggesting the true infection rate is double digits. Why do we NOT know what the population infection rate is? It seems relatively easy to do.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  I have some ideas about why the last released Antibody data from NYC was in mid April. I'm pretty sure it's to do with politics and not science. Herd immunity is a bad look for a politician. But that is pure speculation.
  - smallgovt 6y ago
    That crossed my mind as well, but if this were the case, surely a member of the opposing party would fund such a study. Given that this also hasn't happened, I wonder if there's another reason. Is it not as simple as paying 1K random ppl $100 to come in and take a test?
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Oh wait here we go- New York just released its antibody data. I just saw this when googling https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-antibody-test.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-an...
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels, which btw testing for Tcells is not widely available or commercial, would = herd immunity. So there is no result that would prove herd immunity.
  - smallgovt 6y ago
    > But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels... would = herd immunity. OK, but wouldn't a random sampling at least provide an answer to what pct of the population was infected at some point? That seems like a great starting point.
phenkdo 6y ago
Sorry for hijacking this thread, but it'd be great if some serious science/politics show hosts an extended debate from both POVs and have a serious scientific conversation about what's next in covid? herd immunity or not?
somewhereoutth 6y ago
Can someone explain to me why every Covid submission that makes it to the front page of HN seems to take the 'denialist' perspective? Is an agenda being pushed? There must be so much important science being done right now, surely we would rather hear about that.
- dang 6y ago
  I haven't been counting, but HN has had lots of covid-related submissions and I'm pretty sure most have been from a majority perspective. It's dangerous to make generalizations like "every $foo that makes it to the front page of HN". Such perceptions are notoriously subject to bias, for example the bias where people are more likely to notice (and put more weight on) posts that they dislike/disagree with than posts they like/agree with. If you think about it, that phenomenon would predict that all sides feel like the site is biased against their perspective, which is exactly what we observe. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=notice%20dislike%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
- rsynnott 6y ago
  I feel like the normal stuff gets flagged more than the fringe stuff, possibly because it’s generally more pessimistic.
- smallgovt 6y ago
  How is this a 'denialist' perspective? The author is affirming that COVID is real and so widespread that some areas are reaching herd immunity...
  - somewhereoutth 6y ago
    The idea is that if we have reached herd immunity then we can all go back to work/school and forget about Covid. This is a very dangerous line of thinking, and indeed is self fulfilling - ignoring Covid will sure enough result in herd immunity (assuming we get lasting immunity - unlike the common cold coronavirus!), but at the cost of thousands of lives and serious long term health effects.
dr_dshiv 6y ago
Yall gotta know that life is almost totally normal in the Netherlands and has been for months. Almost no one is dying. It's likely because people get so many colds in the winter, so there is general immunity. Or we are all about to die...?
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  I spent several pandemic months in the Netherlands. I have two ancedotes. Often if I was running on the sidewalk and encountered another person they would cross to the other side of the road (or I would). On my street there were 3-4 parties every week. I work late so loud music didn't effect my sleep much. Generally I felt like people kept their distance although I think compliance is a big issue with lockdowns everywhere.
tghw 6y ago
NYC had only 20% prevalence in mid-June[1], after they had contained the initial outbreak[2]. Therefore, the drop in new cases is very unlikely to be from herd immunity, which would need prevalence to be in the 80% range. The author seems to ignore that most people are interacting with far fewer people because they are working from home, kids mostly aren't in school, and our other interactions with people outside our household have been limited and altered to decrease the chances of transmission. It's nice to think that some people had memory T-cells that could deal with the virus, and it seems some people do, but based on the original R0 numbers, it would be foolish to think that is the case for enough of the population to conclude that we've reached herd immunity. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/comm... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/new-york https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/new-yor...
- tghw 6y ago
  Also, the JHU map is a poor indicator, as they are clearly basing the colors on suspect data, as in this case in Nebraska, which apparently had negative new cases yesterday. [1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Oh sometimes that happens because states make mistakes in reporting and want to correct them. I would guess that's the case here. It also happens in the other direction- big spikes are sometimes a backlog of cases all reported at once.
    - tghw 6y ago
      While true, that map and a photo of an outdoor space with people in it are poor pieces of data to hinge your entire argument on. You completely failed to take into account people working from home, schools delaying opening and not having been in session since March or April, and all of the other measures that have been put in place to decrease transmission (masks, barriers, decreased social interactions, restaurant closings, other indoor spaces being closed, etc, etc, etc). Your conclusion is flawed because you left all of these factors out of your analysis.
not2b 6y ago
When herd immunity is reached new cases don't hum along at a lower but steady rate, as they are in New York State. Herd immunity means that infected individuals can't find enough non-infected people to infect, R0 is well below 1, meaning that cases exponentially drop to zero. Check out the chart for New York's new cases, it isn't happening. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Herd immunity is not in reality a single cutoff, it's a spectrum. So there is some point- looking like ~30% where R<1 and cases dip. But the > the %, the more immunity.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    Technically it's the threshold where R drops below one. You might expect transmission to continue for some time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Sure. That is the technical definition. My point is that the rate at which cases will drop is proportional to the percent of the population that is immune. It's not a binary.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Also, States are not uniformly immune. NYC is more immune than the rest of the state so some of the continued daily new cases are in upstate new york and other areas. We need to look at a county level to accurately parse.
1kGarand 6y ago
Simple math below. NY has 1,300 deaths per million, and NJ has 1,800 deaths per million currently. Let's take the average and say that they reached herd immunity with 1,500 deaths per million. Great. For the entire US (320 million), that implies 480,000 deaths before reaching herd immunity. Does 480,000 deaths sound good to anyone?
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  It's not good, no. But I am not suggesting that this was a good plan. I am just saying it is the plan that is happening. I think the US government took a really bad route in handling the pandemic. New Zealand had the best model imo- shut down hard and early and eradicated. Hardly any deaths. Were able to reopen in 6 weeks.
  - skolsuper 6y ago
    Does the US approach mean countries like New Zealand need to stay isolated until a vaccine is found? Or would herd immunity eventually eradicate the virus in US?
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      They should definitely have anyone abroad strictly quarantine for at least 14 days upon entering the country. Herd immunity would slow it to a crawl but it seems like it could pop back up in odd pockets of previously unexposed people. We also still don't know how long immunity will last- scientists are hopeful that it will last until a vaccine is produced but that's not a guarantee.
      - skolsuper 6y ago
        Thanks
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  It doesn't sound good, but I think it would be a attractive. The current death toll is around 170K, so we are talking a 300k difference. Deaths associated with loss of work and restricted access to healthcare will certainly exceed that by the time we lift restrictions. So the sooner we get to 480k, the better. That said, I don't have much confidence in the 480k number.
1kGarand 6y ago
I think the winning countries in this pandemic would be the ones who were able to collectively wait for a vaccine while maintaining low death rates. Sadly US will not be one of those.
deleted 6y ago
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fragmede 6y ago
We know that the numbers are being futz with to make things look less bad. They've artificially low, and have been since the data has been redirected through the White House, and the expressed political beliefs of the resident there. In particular, by playing with the number of tests being run. Longer explanation here (not mine): http://martinhillortiz.blogspot.com/2020/08/coronavirus-cases-and-playing-games.html http://martinhillortiz.blogspot.com/2020/08/coronavirus-case...
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Yeah I'm pretty worried about data corruption. I have been planning to compare all the databases. Thanks for the link- I'll check it out tomorrow.
- lefrenchy 6y ago
  What’s ultimately really sad beyond the current implications are the future implications of corrupting data. Scientists who want to study this are going to have less reliable data to use, and therefore we may be less prepared for the next pandemic than we could have been.
deleted 6y ago
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mchusma 6y ago
There have been multiple studies now that suggest significant herd immunity kicks in around 20-30% infection rate. We should see in a couple of weeks but if every state and country continues to hit an infection wall around 30%, it bodes well that the end is near. It also suggests that even 10-50M vaccines (in the US) can make an enormous impact and this thing may be over (as a severe widespread issue) in 2020. I'm excited to see the next 4-6 weeks of data on this.
- SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
  "Herd Immunity" is a spectrum, as some already commented. It depends highly on the introduced restrictions measures. So for some limited masking it will appear at the earlier moment, but once people stop wearing them, the threshold will go up.
- tenuousemphasis 6y ago
  I too enjoy wishful thinking.
hellofunk 6y ago
That first paragraph, where the author seems to, even in jest, place blame on his college professor, all the wording and weird emphasis on that, it’s just really really strange. I certainly would not want to be his college professor.
- coldtea 6y ago
  Not even sure what you're getting at. It's a common type of tongue-in-cheek comment, one can find in tons of writings. "Blame X who inspired me to study Y, and led me down this path". There's no actual blame, it's just praise for his professor (and that's immediately understood as such). There's nothing "really really strange" about it, and there's no "weird emphasis" (it's a mere passing line in a big post). If anything, your pointing it out is weird.
  - hellofunk 6y ago
    Eh, I read it differently. It’s not just one line, it’s three sentences followed by a reference to the political climate. I think it’s a bit much and it threw me off while I was reading it. I’ve seen those kinds of jesting comments in other blogs, but this one is more awkwardly phrased. When they write “Sorry Dr.Hume” I do actually feel sorry for his professor!
irishgeoff5 6y ago
Why do people wear face masks when it even says on the packaging they are useless https://ibb.co/3rwkydy https://ibb.co/3rwkydy
josephby 6y ago
> Why would Floridas numbers start to decrease if not for herd immunity? We know they aren’t being more careful. Disney land reopened and there is a police sheriff who literally made a rule that police officers and people going into the station were not allowed to wear masks. This is idiotic. Rather than “herd immunity” one could, in fact, be seeing the impact of large numbers of people having been scared straight simply avoiding further contact. The author’s conjecture could be correct but they offer no proof.
gloriosoc 6y ago
Ok I'm going to put this at the top since I believe it sheds further light on many of the points. This is a talk at UCSF's medical grand rounds (the weekly science talks given to all doctors at UCSF). At 38 minutes, one of the scientists cited by the MIT tech explains his findings in support of herd immunity. It's not peer reviewed yet because it's brand new- peer review takes a minimum of three months. He shows open table and google maps data in support of people not being much more careful in Florida or AZ. He also explains the interplay between mask wearing etc and RT. Hopefully you will find this to add extra rigor to what I have been saying. It is pretty dry- but that is the nature of this sort of talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w.

71 points by gloriosoc 6y ago

hnarn 6y ago

I block new domains via NextDNS, so if anyone's interested this domain was only registered 2020-07-31.

gloriosoc 6y ago
Yep it's a new site, just created it:)

newsbinator 6y ago

Does Sweden have herd immunity? They didn't lock down, but they did implement social distancing recommendations. Does Belarus have herd immunity? No lockdown, no social distancing to speak of, basically nobody wears a mask, er, anywhere. I see people in the centre of Minsk having face-to-face conversations all day long. And now there are tens of thousands of people protesting/yelling/hugging each other without masks. I very much hope the answer is yes and these countries do have something close to herd immunity. But that feels like wishful thinking.

gloriosoc 6y ago
This is what the MIT Tech has to say about Sweden (and I agree): "Lessons from Sweden Outside the US, researchers are also closely tracking the role of population immunity in national responses. Sweden, for example, did not impose a strict lockdown, and saw a large number of deaths starting in April. Since then, however, the number of new infections has declined. The nation’s leaders said last week that children would go back to school unmasked. “I would say in Sweden there is no doubt that immunity plays an important role, more than in other countries,” says Britton. “Now this epidemic is slowly stopping.” https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity...
- danielmarkbruce 6y ago
  I don't think you realize the quoting of MIT Technology Review isn't helping you. It's hurting.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    ? care to explain?
    - danielmarkbruce 6y ago
      MIT Technology Review says X is an appeal to authority. They aren't one. Hence it doesn't work. It also makes you seem naive.
  - aliswe 6y ago
    "helping you" ?
- SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
  Did you see the COVID death graph of Sweden? It is laughable and is heavily manipulated. It does not in anyway resemble the daily infection graph and doctored to look like the peak happened in April, and as if it had long been past by the time Tegnell made his daily briefings in July. God knows when we'll see the deaths that happened in July on that graph.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    Do you have any evidence besides that the graph doesn't match your intuition?
hnick 6y ago
As another comment said there is some implication that prior exposure to other coronaviruses (which would usually be identified as the common cold) can enable an effective immune response. If that works I wonder if such exposure is evenly distributed around the world or if it's clustered in certain populations? FWIW here in Australia Melbourne has had a fairly significant outbreak but Sydney hasn't, from what I can tell it's basically dumb luck it didn't happen the other way around.
SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
The situation with Belarus (as it is in almost every dictatorship), that both death statistics and infection are highly unreliable. Belarus might have actually acquired herd immunity, but then the death rate must be much, much higher than claimed by their government. Bishkek, in Kyrgyzstan also seem to be in a stable equilibrium, but they still have restriction measures. Sweden is a master manipulator with their stats. Look at their daily death graph, which does not in any way resemble the daily infection graph. They seem to have small second wave right now BTW. They may have herd immunity, and there is nothing embarrassing about this term. What is more interesting though, is how Finland in Norway have actually almost zero deaths these days, yet nowhere near the seroprevalence of Sweden.

tunesmith 6y ago

Should it be called herd immunity if it depends on current social practices of physical distancing and masking? Sure, you might have "effective herd immunity" in some regions, but those herd immunity percentage targets go up if people start interacting more.

gloriosoc 6y ago
Can't imagine Florida is being careful enough that their herd immunity depends on masks
- tunesmith 6y ago
  So you're saying that places like NYC have reached natural herd immunity and can safely be opened back up? They reached an estimated R0 of 5.6 early on due to their population density. From that number, they'd have to reach > 80% infected to hit herd immunity. They got hit hard, but they're nowhere near that level. If they went back to normal all of a sudden, there'd be a lot more death.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Oh I never said anywhere could be safely opened back up- that's a leap. I say quite the opposite- people should be careful and not open schools until cases drop to near zero.
    - jachee 6y ago
      If the herd can't resume regular herd behavior without risking widespread infection, does it have immunity at all?
      - gloriosoc 6y ago
        Eventually we will be able to but cases should drop further. Herd immunity doesn't mean zero spread, it means R<1 and dropping cases that will eventually become close to zero.

freehunter 6y ago

> This analysis and the conclusions that I have drawn are my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the wider scientific and medical communities. That’s an important point because the wider scientific and medical communities don’t agree with this analysis at all.

gloriosoc 6y ago
Well some do- MIT's paper, MIT Tech seems to https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity...
- notacoward 6y ago
  They only seem to agree with the weaker claim that immunity plays a role in the patterns we're seeing, not the stronger claim that general herd immunity has been achieved anywhere. And it's a very brief superficial article, not exactly comparable to peer-reviewed studies that tend to reflect a nearly opposite conclusion.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Data source for "peer-reviewed studies that tend to reflect a nearly opposite conclusion"?
    - notacoward 6y ago
      You go first. You claimed there were others that agree with you, but that doesn't really seem to be true. Provide a serious citation, and I'll reciprocate.
      - gloriosoc 6y ago
        The MIT tech is serious. MIT doesn't publish garbage science in their news paper.

Hnrobert42 6y ago

When it comes to CoVID-19 analysis, I prefer mine in the form of a peer-reviewed paper from a reputable journal.

gloriosoc 6y ago
Good luck- you might be waiting a while. Peer review takes months to years. At that point it's too late for preventative strategies for a pandemic.
- Hnrobert42 6y ago
  Years? No. And if you want to improve the peer review process, lobby for paying reviewers (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-017-2310-5 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-017-2310-5). Regardless, I stand by my original point. I prefer peer-reviewed analysis. The alternative is a free-for-all where junk claims equal weight with legitimate science. Such a system is usually supported by folks whose work can’t make it through the traditional system.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Oof now we are saying that my work is not of publishable quality? The data are from two days ago so it would be hard to get it peer reviewed in that time. But I do plan on publishing. I am putting it out there so people can make more informed decisions (about schools etc) in real time.
    - bobosha 6y ago
      You could put this up on biorxiv and invite other researchers to comment.
      - gloriosoc 6y ago
        That's a good idea- that too will take some time- writing a paper is not a small task but I will put it on the to do list.

subsubzero 6y ago

Some up to date news regarding T-cells and their implications suggest this in fact could be a thing with some of the harder hit states. Apparently T-cells will "remember" an infection after a person is exposed to and recovers from covid-19[1]. This is a huge development as it suggests that neutralizing antibodies are not the only defense against a reinfection of covid-19(and these antibodies only last a few months) whereas T-cell memory of infections lasts years. Also, there are some signs that other cornavirus family of viruses(common colds, not covid-19) could trigger a memory with these t cells, this is a possibility why some have extreme cases and others show no signs of sickness[2]. Couple these points with data showing 40% of people who contract the virus are asymptomatic[3] this leads to the idea that alot more people have had the virus than what is reported, which in this case is a good thing as its closer to herd immunity(if all the above is found to be true). [1] - https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immuni... [2] - https://www.livescience.com/common-cold-coronaviruses-t-cells-covid-19-immunity.html https://www.livescience.com/common-cold-coronaviruses-t-cell... [3] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomati...

gloriosoc 6y ago
yes agree. And the CDC reports there are 10X the cases of COVID than has been reported based on antibody studies. And there are many more deaths than have been reported https://realscience.community/2020/08/16/why-a-lot-more-people-have-died-from-covid-than-is-being-reported/ https://realscience.community/2020/08/16/why-a-lot-more-peop.... All reasons that we are closer to herd immunity than is the common perception.
- DougN7 6y ago
  Doesn’t herd immunity for a country of 350 million need somewhere on the order of 220 million to have been exposed and recovered? I don’t think we’re anywhere near that yet.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago

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theontheone 6y ago

This is barely even an article. You state a trend and then say herd immunity must be happening because... you cannot think of any other reason.

gloriosoc 6y ago
Can you think of another reason? The states with above ~30% infection rates are now trending down. They are not being more careful. Sometimes logic is that simple.
- mr_toad 6y ago
  Infection rates could be grossly under reported. Younger males in particular are much less likely to seek treatment for a mild infection.
- danielmarkbruce 6y ago
  "they are not being more careful" is likely a flawed assumption. Many, many more people are wearing masks now. Where I am, the % of people wearing masks went from low single digits in april/may to 90%+. I've visited a couple different cities and it's the same - massive increase in mask wearing. People are being more careful in many places.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    I think mask wearing and social distancing is slowing the spread in some places. CA and OH for example have seen a slow when more stringent policies were put into place. But I don't think Louisiana and Florida are being more careful and they are seeing a drop in cases.
    - ketamine__ 6y ago
      Observational research is not good enough for public policy. Look at the spike in cases in Japan. It completely destroys the correlation. > What do scientists do in the face of uncertainty on the value of global interventions? Usually, they seek an answer with adequately designed and swiftly implemented clinical studies as has been partly achieved with pharmaceuticals. We consider it is unwise to infer causation based on regional geographical observations as several proponents of masks have done. Spikes in cases can easily refute correlations, compliance with masks and other measures is often variable, and confounders cannot be accounted for in such observational research. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-...

smallgovt 6y ago

Interesting that this is flagged. There are almost no strong claims made in the article. Are people not open to a discussion about herd immunity?

dang 6y ago
I don't think it's an unreasonable submission (which, just to pre-empt some objections, is an orthogonal question to agree vs. disagree), and it's a bonus that the author is here to comment. We'll turn off the flags for now.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Thanks!
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
It means they'd have less to panic over. It means that everyone in this country would be in a better place (including Trump and that's not permissible to be said in this political environment).

smallgovt 6y ago

Isn't this hypothesis pretty easy to validate/falsify? Just take a random sample of 1K NY residents and test them for antibody/t-cell presence. 1K is plenty to make a statistically significant sample size when you're suggesting the true infection rate is double digits. Why do we NOT know what the population infection rate is? It seems relatively easy to do.

gloriosoc 6y ago
I have some ideas about why the last released Antibody data from NYC was in mid April. I'm pretty sure it's to do with politics and not science. Herd immunity is a bad look for a politician. But that is pure speculation.
- smallgovt 6y ago
  That crossed my mind as well, but if this were the case, surely a member of the opposing party would fund such a study. Given that this also hasn't happened, I wonder if there's another reason. Is it not as simple as paying 1K random ppl $100 to come in and take a test?
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Oh wait here we go- New York just released its antibody data. I just saw this when googling https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-antibody-test.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/nyregion/new-york-city-an...
gloriosoc 6y ago
But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels, which btw testing for Tcells is not widely available or commercial, would = herd immunity. So there is no result that would prove herd immunity.
- smallgovt 6y ago
  > But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels... would = herd immunity. OK, but wouldn't a random sampling at least provide an answer to what pct of the population was infected at some point? That seems like a great starting point.

phenkdo 6y ago

Sorry for hijacking this thread, but it'd be great if some serious science/politics show hosts an extended debate from both POVs and have a serious scientific conversation about what's next in covid? herd immunity or not?

somewhereoutth 6y ago

Can someone explain to me why every Covid submission that makes it to the front page of HN seems to take the 'denialist' perspective? Is an agenda being pushed? There must be so much important science being done right now, surely we would rather hear about that.

dang 6y ago
I haven't been counting, but HN has had lots of covid-related submissions and I'm pretty sure most have been from a majority perspective. It's dangerous to make generalizations like "every $foo that makes it to the front page of HN". Such perceptions are notoriously subject to bias, for example the bias where people are more likely to notice (and put more weight on) posts that they dislike/disagree with than posts they like/agree with. If you think about it, that phenomenon would predict that all sides feel like the site is biased against their perspective, which is exactly what we observe. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=notice%20dislike%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
rsynnott 6y ago
I feel like the normal stuff gets flagged more than the fringe stuff, possibly because it’s generally more pessimistic.
smallgovt 6y ago
How is this a 'denialist' perspective? The author is affirming that COVID is real and so widespread that some areas are reaching herd immunity...
- somewhereoutth 6y ago
  The idea is that if we have reached herd immunity then we can all go back to work/school and forget about Covid. This is a very dangerous line of thinking, and indeed is self fulfilling - ignoring Covid will sure enough result in herd immunity (assuming we get lasting immunity - unlike the common cold coronavirus!), but at the cost of thousands of lives and serious long term health effects.

dr_dshiv 6y ago

Yall gotta know that life is almost totally normal in the Netherlands and has been for months. Almost no one is dying. It's likely because people get so many colds in the winter, so there is general immunity. Or we are all about to die...?

ketamine__ 6y ago
I spent several pandemic months in the Netherlands. I have two ancedotes. Often if I was running on the sidewalk and encountered another person they would cross to the other side of the road (or I would). On my street there were 3-4 parties every week. I work late so loud music didn't effect my sleep much. Generally I felt like people kept their distance although I think compliance is a big issue with lockdowns everywhere.

tghw 6y ago

NYC had only 20% prevalence in mid-June[1], after they had contained the initial outbreak[2]. Therefore, the drop in new cases is very unlikely to be from herd immunity, which would need prevalence to be in the 80% range. The author seems to ignore that most people are interacting with far fewer people because they are working from home, kids mostly aren't in school, and our other interactions with people outside our household have been limited and altered to decrease the chances of transmission. It's nice to think that some people had memory T-cells that could deal with the virus, and it seems some people do, but based on the original R0 numbers, it would be foolish to think that is the case for enough of the population to conclude that we've reached herd immunity. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/comm... [2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/new-york https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/new-yor...

tghw 6y ago
Also, the JHU map is a poor indicator, as they are clearly basing the colors on suspect data, as in this case in Nebraska, which apparently had negative new cases yesterday. [1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  Oh sometimes that happens because states make mistakes in reporting and want to correct them. I would guess that's the case here. It also happens in the other direction- big spikes are sometimes a backlog of cases all reported at once.
  - tghw 6y ago
    While true, that map and a photo of an outdoor space with people in it are poor pieces of data to hinge your entire argument on. You completely failed to take into account people working from home, schools delaying opening and not having been in session since March or April, and all of the other measures that have been put in place to decrease transmission (masks, barriers, decreased social interactions, restaurant closings, other indoor spaces being closed, etc, etc, etc). Your conclusion is flawed because you left all of these factors out of your analysis.

not2b 6y ago

When herd immunity is reached new cases don't hum along at a lower but steady rate, as they are in New York State. Herd immunity means that infected individuals can't find enough non-infected people to infect, R0 is well below 1, meaning that cases exponentially drop to zero. Check out the chart for New York's new cases, it isn't happening. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

gloriosoc 6y ago
Herd immunity is not in reality a single cutoff, it's a spectrum. So there is some point- looking like ~30% where R<1 and cases dip. But the > the %, the more immunity.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  Technically it's the threshold where R drops below one. You might expect transmission to continue for some time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Overshoot
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    Sure. That is the technical definition. My point is that the rate at which cases will drop is proportional to the percent of the population that is immune. It's not a binary.
gloriosoc 6y ago
Also, States are not uniformly immune. NYC is more immune than the rest of the state so some of the continued daily new cases are in upstate new york and other areas. We need to look at a county level to accurately parse.

1kGarand 6y ago

Simple math below. NY has 1,300 deaths per million, and NJ has 1,800 deaths per million currently. Let's take the average and say that they reached herd immunity with 1,500 deaths per million. Great. For the entire US (320 million), that implies 480,000 deaths before reaching herd immunity. Does 480,000 deaths sound good to anyone?

gloriosoc 6y ago
It's not good, no. But I am not suggesting that this was a good plan. I am just saying it is the plan that is happening. I think the US government took a really bad route in handling the pandemic. New Zealand had the best model imo- shut down hard and early and eradicated. Hardly any deaths. Were able to reopen in 6 weeks.
- skolsuper 6y ago
  Does the US approach mean countries like New Zealand need to stay isolated until a vaccine is found? Or would herd immunity eventually eradicate the virus in US?
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    They should definitely have anyone abroad strictly quarantine for at least 14 days upon entering the country. Herd immunity would slow it to a crawl but it seems like it could pop back up in odd pockets of previously unexposed people. We also still don't know how long immunity will last- scientists are hopeful that it will last until a vaccine is produced but that's not a guarantee.
    - skolsuper 6y ago
      Thanks
s1artibartfast 6y ago
It doesn't sound good, but I think it would be a attractive. The current death toll is around 170K, so we are talking a 300k difference. Deaths associated with loss of work and restricted access to healthcare will certainly exceed that by the time we lift restrictions. So the sooner we get to 480k, the better. That said, I don't have much confidence in the 480k number.

1kGarand 6y ago

I think the winning countries in this pandemic would be the ones who were able to collectively wait for a vaccine while maintaining low death rates. Sadly US will not be one of those.

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fragmede 6y ago

We know that the numbers are being futz with to make things look less bad. They've artificially low, and have been since the data has been redirected through the White House, and the expressed political beliefs of the resident there. In particular, by playing with the number of tests being run. Longer explanation here (not mine): http://martinhillortiz.blogspot.com/2020/08/coronavirus-cases-and-playing-games.html http://martinhillortiz.blogspot.com/2020/08/coronavirus-case...

gloriosoc 6y ago
Yeah I'm pretty worried about data corruption. I have been planning to compare all the databases. Thanks for the link- I'll check it out tomorrow.
lefrenchy 6y ago
What’s ultimately really sad beyond the current implications are the future implications of corrupting data. Scientists who want to study this are going to have less reliable data to use, and therefore we may be less prepared for the next pandemic than we could have been.

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mchusma 6y ago

There have been multiple studies now that suggest significant herd immunity kicks in around 20-30% infection rate. We should see in a couple of weeks but if every state and country continues to hit an infection wall around 30%, it bodes well that the end is near. It also suggests that even 10-50M vaccines (in the US) can make an enormous impact and this thing may be over (as a severe widespread issue) in 2020. I'm excited to see the next 4-6 weeks of data on this.

SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
"Herd Immunity" is a spectrum, as some already commented. It depends highly on the introduced restrictions measures. So for some limited masking it will appear at the earlier moment, but once people stop wearing them, the threshold will go up.
tenuousemphasis 6y ago
I too enjoy wishful thinking.

hellofunk 6y ago

That first paragraph, where the author seems to, even in jest, place blame on his college professor, all the wording and weird emphasis on that, it’s just really really strange. I certainly would not want to be his college professor.

coldtea 6y ago
Not even sure what you're getting at. It's a common type of tongue-in-cheek comment, one can find in tons of writings. "Blame X who inspired me to study Y, and led me down this path". There's no actual blame, it's just praise for his professor (and that's immediately understood as such). There's nothing "really really strange" about it, and there's no "weird emphasis" (it's a mere passing line in a big post). If anything, your pointing it out is weird.
- hellofunk 6y ago
  Eh, I read it differently. It’s not just one line, it’s three sentences followed by a reference to the political climate. I think it’s a bit much and it threw me off while I was reading it. I’ve seen those kinds of jesting comments in other blogs, but this one is more awkwardly phrased. When they write “Sorry Dr.Hume” I do actually feel sorry for his professor!

irishgeoff5 6y ago

Why do people wear face masks when it even says on the packaging they are useless https://ibb.co/3rwkydy https://ibb.co/3rwkydy

josephby 6y ago

> Why would Floridas numbers start to decrease if not for herd immunity? We know they aren’t being more careful. Disney land reopened and there is a police sheriff who literally made a rule that police officers and people going into the station were not allowed to wear masks. This is idiotic. Rather than “herd immunity” one could, in fact, be seeing the impact of large numbers of people having been scared straight simply avoiding further contact. The author’s conjecture could be correct but they offer no proof.

gloriosoc 6y ago

Ok I'm going to put this at the top since I believe it sheds further light on many of the points. This is a talk at UCSF's medical grand rounds (the weekly science talks given to all doctors at UCSF). At 38 minutes, one of the scientists cited by the MIT tech explains his findings in support of herd immunity. It's not peer reviewed yet because it's brand new- peer review takes a minimum of three months. He shows open table and google maps data in support of people not being much more careful in Florida or AZ. He also explains the interplay between mask wearing etc and RT. Hopefully you will find this to add extra rigor to what I have been saying. It is pretty dry- but that is the nature of this sort of talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2MEF4XX8w.