gloriosoc

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31.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
I read that and I find it pretty infuriating. It has a lot of fake and unsubstantiated science claims by the author.
32.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Ok I'm going to put this at the top since I believe it sheds further light on many of the points. This is a talk at UCSF's medical grand rounds (the weekly science talks given to all doctors at UCSF). At 38 minutes, one of the sci
33.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Actually, yes this is the point. I think this thread has been very useful feedback for the most part and has made me feel pretty optimistic about the utility of crowd sourced review. The "oof" is more reaction to the framing of th
34.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Here is the extreme case- an astroid is barreling towards the earth and we don't know if shooting a missile at it will save us. Do we do nothing because asteroid missile research has not yet been peer reviewed? Or do we take our best g
35.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
A lot of harm is done when waiting around forever. People don't hear of potential life saving drugs. We don't know what to do in a pandemic. etc. Of course caveats should be explained and risk/reward examined.
36.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
The CDC has said we are underestimating infection rates by a factor of 10 based on antibody testing. We have undertested the population and therefore have only captured 10% of the cases.
37.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
And in the South, the schools opened.
38.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
OK I was in Ocean City NJ at the beach a month ago. This is just not true. I was in the women's bathroom- no masks, 6 inches from other people, no airflow. I'd say about 1/10 wearing masks. People crowded together.
39.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
So I think we have ruled out those reasons. I could go into each one of them but that would take a while. That is with the exception of data corruption by politicians-- I am concerned about that and planning to look further into it. "I
40.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Sure. That is the technical definition. My point is that the rate at which cases will drop is proportional to the percent of the population that is immune. It's not a binary.
41.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
I agree that i haven't quantified how careful people are being though. There has to be a way to do this. I know there was some drone plan to see how many masks were being worn in parts of the country. It might be worth getting some num
42.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
So this is a good point. I was just talking with a colleague about this. Some of the herd immunity models take factors like how mobile people are into account. It seems like masks could be a factor in the models of herd immunity. This might
43.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
I also took a roadtrip across the northeast a month ago so I saw a lot of how careful people were being. Ocean City, NJ was packed and almost no one was wearing masks. The upper east side was packed in NYC. I got a chicken sandwich at an in
44.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Yeah I'm pretty worried about data corruption. I have been planning to compare all the databases. Thanks for the link- I'll check it out tomorrow.
45.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
They should definitely have anyone abroad strictly quarantine for at least 14 days upon entering the country. Herd immunity would slow it to a crawl but it seems like it could pop back up in odd pockets of previously unexposed people. We al
46.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
NYC data from August has some boroughs as high as 51% https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.pa... . The 68% comes from this article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07&#x2F
47.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Mmmm You can see the timeline of orders that were put into place and the correlation. Here is Florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme... . No mask mandate at all. Disney world is open.
48.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
I think mask wearing and social distancing is slowing the spread in some places. CA and OH for example have seen a slow when more stringent policies were put into place. But I don't think Louisiana and Florida are being more careful an
49.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
I don't think this could explain the huge jump in cases and then decline post-reopening in Fl,Az, and LA. They aren't being more careful now than they were in early June. Disney world is open, people are outright refusing to dista
50.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Thanks!
51.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Also, States are not uniformly immune. NYC is more immune than the rest of the state so some of the continued daily new cases are in upstate new york and other areas. We need to look at a county level to accurately parse.
52.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Herd immunity is not in reality a single cutoff, it's a spectrum. So there is some point- looking like ~30% where R<1 and cases dip. But the > the %, the more immunity.
53.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
The Tech quotes peer reviewed science like the lay press. But they generally do a better job of quoting quality science and conveying the research accurately (as opposed to politically). I think the issue here is speed. Most of the research
54.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
? care to explain?
55.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
It's not good, no. But I am not suggesting that this was a good plan. I am just saying it is the plan that is happening. I think the US government took a really bad route in handling the pandemic. New Zealand had the best model imo- sh
56.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Well it's crowd review. Wikipedia itself is actually very accurate for science information. The concept would be the same but for new research instead of well established research. I think this could work well actually. It's basic
57.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Eventually we will be able to but cases should drop further. Herd immunity doesn't mean zero spread, it means R<1 and dropping cases that will eventually become close to zero.
58.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
Oh sometimes that happens because states make mistakes in reporting and want to correct them. I would guess that's the case here. It also happens in the other direction- big spikes are sometimes a backlog of cases all reported at once.
59.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
We are at around 50,000,000 cases. It is looking like herd immunity or at least R<1 is happening at around 30%. There are five states so far that have reached that point- NY, NJ, LA, FL, and AZ. So we have 45 more states to go. As a nati
60.
by gloriosoc 6y ago
The MIT tech is serious. MIT doesn't publish garbage science in their news paper.

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