giarc

33 ms·

91.
by giarc 9mo ago
And just wait until all the stimulus Trump is going to drop on Americans before the midterms to make everything look good and gain back some voters.
92.
by giarc 9mo ago
I wonder how many will simply become "Trump Republicans" and follow some other leader when he's gone? Or will some simply pretend to wake up and have realized they had Trump Derangement Syndrome the whole time and are ready t
93.
by giarc 9mo ago
>It's perhaps to be expected, as these education people are usually non-technical. I don't think that's totally correct. I think it's because AI has come at everyone, equally, all at once. Educational academics didn&#
94.
by giarc 9mo ago
Who are Uma token holders? I'm assuming some token people can buy? Could someone not corner that market, then make a ton of longshot bets, then dispute them all and win every case as majority Uma token holder? "After the debate pe
95.
by giarc 9mo ago
Agree - my millennial brain got bored quickly and it was still very easy.
96.
by giarc 9mo ago
"that a prediction market effectively liberates the directional content of that information by converting it into prices." I can see this, and I guess maybe my issue is with the phrasing of "aggregating" insider informat
97.
by giarc 9mo ago
I don't know much, but I can't see why betting on a known outcome is good? Why not just ask the knower? Also, just because Robin Hanson says "it's about aggregating insider information" makes it true. He writes some
98.
by giarc 9mo ago
I guess... but I still think first thought would be just some more bombing. It's a big step to go from bombing boats, a dock, arresting and extraditing a foreign leader in the middle of the night.
99.
by giarc 9mo ago
It's not 'predicting' when the outcome/answer is known. From the wiki entry on prediction markets "The main purpose of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs about an unknown future event."
100.
by giarc 9mo ago
How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no
101.
by giarc 9mo ago
Serious question, was there ever another (new) bettor placing $30k on a 6.5% chance outcome?
102.
by giarc 9mo ago
They took off from many different places so you'd have to somehow know that ~150 aircraft were taking off. If you happen to just see one spot, you'd likely just assume it was another bombing of a boat or a dock.
103.
by giarc 10mo ago
https://www.pepboys.com/tires They have a license plate checker on their site. I don't live in the states, therefore I don't have a plate to check. Or do I..... HY in Florida.... @lafond - do you own a 2010 Subaru
104.
by giarc 10mo ago
The concern - for you, maybe nothing. However, the new company could say "turn on microphone for all vacuums in the DC area and send transcripts to us" (trying to capture private conversations of politicians. Or it could do the sa
105.
by giarc 10mo ago
Don't have access to NYTimes, but do they mention anything about all the other people that received an organ? I'm assuming they are tracking them down to get them rabies vaccine?
106.
by giarc 10mo ago
Small customers do weird things. I had a tiny Saas company and we had approached a local business with a few locations. Our software was in daycare management and would have automated a bunch of their processes. The owner loved the product
107.
by giarc 10mo ago
Will they lose a small customer or two to custom vibe coded solutions, yes. Will they be "competed away" due to vibe coding, definitely not. You have to remember that no one gets fired for selecting an established software provide
108.
by giarc 10mo ago
I think these graphs are just too unreliable. If I set it to Past 90 Days, there's a blip on Sept 6, 2025 with a value of 28. The next data point isn't until Nov 27, 2025 and it goes up to 100. If I then set it to Past 12 Months,
109.
by giarc 10mo ago
If you change the region, it does show up. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=...
110.
by giarc 11mo ago
But what's the point of predicting how many times Elon will say "Trump" on an earnings call (or some random event Kalshi or Polymarket make up)? At least the stock market serves a purpose. People will claim "prediction m
111.
by giarc 11mo ago
These prediction markets are so ripe for abuse it's unbelievable. People need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets. Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stat
112.
by giarc 11mo ago
The Hutterites in Alberta, from what I've heard on various talks etc, aren't anti-vaxx in the traditional sense. There is definitely some attitudes like that, but the reason the vaccination rate was so slow was a mix of distrust o
113.
by giarc 11mo ago
The outbreak then spread to Alberta where travelers returned from a wedding in southwestern Ontario. However, there was at least 6 unique entries into Alberta so it wasn't a single outbreak, but in fact, 6 separate outbreaks. Some ente
114.
by giarc 11mo ago
I agree - having watched many people use Excel over the years, I'd say people often overestimate their skills. I see three categories of Excel users. First there are the people that are intimidated by it and stay away from any task inv
115.
by giarc 11mo ago
Wikipedia, and it's volunteer of editors are extremely quick at checking edits. In university, we once create a page for my room mate and listed his admirable, but odd quirks. It was taken down in a matter of minutes.
116.
by giarc 11mo ago
The problem with that is our auto employee salaries would drive the cost of the vehicle up.
117.
by giarc 1y ago
Holmes has nothing to offer him.
118.
by giarc 1y ago
I think that loophole has closed. If I recall correctly, compounding pharmacies were only allowed to do that as the US gov put the drug on a special list due to shortages. I believe they have removed it from this list (or will do shortly) a
119.
by giarc 1y ago
"Now that we have been able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have new tools" Huh? Quite the statement when there are still people out there having parasocial relationships with chatbots. This problem is going to ge
120.
by giarc 1y ago
I'm sorry but the imagecontent-x.com url should throw red flags for anyone.

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