fwlr

62 ms·

721.
by fwlr 4y ago
It’s extraordinarily hard! Often in trying to analyze some complex system I have found it’s much more tractable to implement the system and analyze the results (e.g. a montecarlo sim of dice-rolling rather than trying to do the math). Likew
722.
by fwlr 4y ago
This is actually the origin of my idea for using nuclear power to produce zero-emission synthetic conventionals. Peak demand is a terrible use-case for nuclear, what you really want for peak demand is rapid-delivery storage like batteries.
723.
by fwlr 4y ago
I am gesturing at the scale of things using readily available numbers and napkin math. Feel free to shift my conclusions an order of magnitude in your preferred direction.
724.
by fwlr 4y ago
Pithy answer: You can’t pump solar panels into the gas tank of a 1998 Honda Civic and expect it to run. Mathematically: 1.44 billion metric tons of coal were shipped by sea in 2019, representing a need for 4.2x10^13 megajoules, or 11,667 te
725.
by fwlr 4y ago
There’s a statistic that floats around the internet claiming more radioactivity harm from coal power than from nuclear power, based on the principle that coal power is essentially aerosolizing tons of particles with ever-so-slightly-higher-
726.
by fwlr 4y ago
When Apple was having issues a few weeks ago, commenters seemed impressed and relieved that it was reported truthfully on their status page, including the honesty to mark services with red dots instead of the usual “Some users may experienc
727.
by fwlr 4y ago
Consider the Honty Mall problem: it’s like the original problem, except after you pick a box, Honty offers you both of the other boxes. It’s much easier to see swapping is better in this problem, and it’s also easier to see that the chanc
728.
by fwlr 4y ago
Why direct-to-homeowner? Your product requires installation by a licensed professional, it doesn’t make sense to sell it without the installation. And I don’t see any major benefits to you, the customer, or the contractor by doing it this w
729.
by fwlr 4y ago
Holy hell (Serves me right for not sanity-checking, I know 1 bar is 14 psi, I could have picked that up if I was paying attention)
730.
by fwlr 4y ago
10kbar, not 10kpa (10kpa would be below sea level air pressure). For reference, that’s about 150psi, which is well within conventional engineering range. You can pick up Schedule 40 PVC pipe at your local hardware store that will do 150psi
731.
by fwlr 4y ago
What else in the post is worth debating? YC made a decision about the value of one of their departments, and HackerNews generally accepts it as given that companies can make these kinds of self-determinations. The reasons for the decision w
732.
by fwlr 4y ago
I don’t think the accounting of losses to the fund is actually discretionary, if they lose money they have to report it, they can’t just re-define the fund as marginally smaller than it was before. I don’t think I understand what you mean.
733.
by fwlr 4y ago
I don’t like semantic games either. I always do my best to resolve a word to mean “the thing people care about when they use this word”. In the case of “bailout” it seems to me that what people care about is whether it will cost taxpayers.
734.
by fwlr 4y ago
“Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law.” I don’t think they have a choice. Congress decided for them.
735.
by fwlr 4y ago
These models aren’t finetuned to understand conversational requests like ChatGPT is. You have to prompt it by giving it the beginning of the thing you want instead. Try def prompt_user_for_miles_and_convert_to_kilometres:
736.
by fwlr 4y ago
A lot of people are asking “how is this not a bailout?” right now. I would caution against dismissing them, it’s a legitimate question. Pointing to the “Taxpayers will not pick up the bill” line counts as dismissive: this is a press release
737.
by fwlr 4y ago
Hey, good news btw. Great, actually. FDIC just announced all depositors to be made whole on Monday morning - and at no cost to the taxpayers either! The lag between the immediate payout to depositors and the eventual recovery of value from
738.
by fwlr 4y ago
Yes, I like this “eating your veggies” metaphor. For what it’s worth, the most plausible scenario I can see where SVB doesn’t collapse is something like “Their lobbying isn’t successful, they are required to undergo rigorous Dodd-Frank test
739.
by fwlr 4y ago
I understand your perspective, but I also want to impress on you that the way you stated it is going to hurt your chances of being heard with a lot of people. The outside view on this situation is: shit happens to blameless people all the t
740.
by fwlr 4y ago
I’m sympathetic. I was in the hospitality industry during COVID, I watched a company that employs 60 people struggle to make payroll while 90% of their business was legally barred from operating for months on end with no clue when it would
741.
by fwlr 4y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35119007 Sources here for DFAST 2022, 2021, 2020. 2019 is in the parent comment to that. You’re looking for Appendix A, Supervisory Scenarios, Tables A3 and A5 (Domestic Variables). Note
742.
by fwlr 4y ago
> If there is a subtext intended, it seems to be that the Fed didn't adhere to its previous assertions about how fast interest rates would rise This is extremely perceptive! I do feel that way, and you know what? I didn’t fully real
743.
by fwlr 4y ago
Don’t get me started. I know I’m sounding like an incurable fanboy for Casey because I mention him in every comment, but it’s only because I am an incurable fanboy for him, his polemics about software being thousands of times slower than
744.
by fwlr 4y ago
I’m not trying to sentence them to the guillotine or anything. I appreciate the strong incentives driving their actions. Even the desire for the government to retroactively insure their deposits is understandable, although I disagree. In th
745.
by fwlr 4y ago
I have no inside information on SVB or their depositors, and no prior experience with managing a bank run. (I also have no exposure to SVB, nor do I have any stock market positions that may be affected by it.) If you want my motivation for
746.
by fwlr 4y ago
I mean, I’m much more concerned about the “immediately demanding taxpayers make them whole” bit.
747.
by fwlr 4y ago
With the “conspiring”, I am referring to reports of VCs mass-emailing their investees to move everything out of SVB right now.
748.
by fwlr 4y ago
Yeah, I can’t blame them at all for joining an ongoing bank run. I can kinda blame them for starting one because they did it so aggressively, but only a bit, because that’s just how internet banking works these days. I can definitely blame
749.
by fwlr 4y ago
Eh, the depositors aren’t totally blameless here. On Thursday they conspired to perform a huge bank run on SVB, on Friday they succeeded, and on Saturday they were demanding the government and taxpayers make them whole by Monday. They deser
750.
by fwlr 4y ago
Because the officers of the bank are guilty of maybe 10% more garden variety bank greed than the average bank, while the real criminals here are the Silicon Valley CEOs who conspired to start a bank run and within 24 hours were demanding ta

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