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Yes, I like this “eating your veggies” metaphor. For what it’s worth, the most plausible scenario I can see where SVB doesn’t collapse is something like “Their
by fwlr 4y ago
Yes, I like this “eating your veggies” metaphor.
For what it’s worth, the most plausible scenario I can see where SVB doesn’t collapse is something like “Their lobbying isn’t successful, they are required to undergo rigorous Dodd-Frank testing, because of this they are forced to get a risk officer, the risk officer armed with the kinda-worrying stress test results convinces SVB management to at least ratify a liquidity strategy even if they don’t really want to act on it, when they go to sell bonds and raise capital they present it as part of this liquidity strategy, the VCs see the strategy and aren’t as spooked, so the wave of withdrawals fizzles out instead of becoming a bank run - but inside SVB it gets way closer to a full-blown run than anyone outside realizes, and this scares management into executing on the liquidity strategy”. That’s an absurdly long chain of events and it’s very easy to step off that path at any point (or just get unlucky) so I still think it’s unlikely, but if I had to give an account of how SVB hypothetically survived, this is what I’d give.