fny

53 ms·

751.
by fny 4y ago
I think 10% happening is not that unrealistic. If oil prices return to 2008 levels ($150 a barrel) that's effectively another 36% inflation. If natural gas prices in the US converge with European prices, you have another 400% increase
752.
by fny 4y ago
At 10% rates I think the fair value of the S&P becomes something like 2000 assuming the same earnings. High yield rates would moon and tons of bankruptcies would ensue. Consider how heavily pensions and retirement accounts are concentra
753.
by fny 4y ago
I don't buy this argument. There are good arguments to the contrary which Jerome can bring up and has at previous hearings. Say demand quiets but the price of inelastic goods (gas and food) continues to skyrocket due to greater demand
754.
by fny 4y ago
Yes it does. If you invested near the dot com peak or the japan peak, you still haven't made your money back. This notion of passive investing that has been pounded into peoples heads for years is complete bullshit and has only worked
755.
by fny 4y ago
Real estate is interesting. The issue is will you be able to make enough rent to actually get a return. I think at this point that's still the case over a 30 year period, but I'm not quite sure what that'll look like in time.
756.
by fny 4y ago
I actually don't have a good answer for this. Not financial advice. Talk to a fiduciary. The problem with inflation is that you need to protect yourself before the fact, and at this point, it's difficult to read to what extend the
757.
by fny 4y ago
You get a guaranteed return depending on how long you lock up your cash. You may or may not beat inflation, but it still protects you on some level.
758.
by fny 4y ago
I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the fut
759.
by fny 4y ago
You need to understand more about macroeconomics, monetary policy, ad government, along with studying past how past markets behaved under similar conditions. History doesn't repeat but it rhymes becomes the mantra.
760.
by fny 4y ago
$200-$300k per year in your own time is a great gig.
761.
by fny 4y ago
A business cycle with double digit inflation and repeat supply shocks is not normal. A business cycle at 100%+ debt to GDP is not normal. This is a generational deleveraging that'll be painful for everyone.
762.
by fny 4y ago
Solar panels require minerals that must be mined too. Batteries are an even greater abomination. Nuclear waste is also extremely compact. Unfortunately our world is not run without the consumption of resources. There are trade offs to every
763.
by fny 4y ago
Natural gas is an incredible important input in the development of fertilizers. This is part of the reason cereal prices have skyrocketed so far. Unfortunately, everything is interlinked. Carbon is certainly an issue, but we've clearly
764.
by fny 4y ago
I hate to say it, but if energy prices keep rising this perspective is going to be disposed of rapidly. High energy prices mean rampant inflation and social unrest. With crude and natural gas prices skyrocketing, developing nations will aga
765.
by fny 4y ago
This is actually something you'll notice in grocery stores now. The higher price has moved far higher (2x) while the discount price has moved 20%. They're prepping everyone for higher prices if needed.
766.
by fny 4y ago
This has already happened. It is not a coincidence that we went from $-40 oil to $130 oil in the span of two years. I posit the Saudis and Russians deliberately maintained elevated production levels into the COVID shutdowns in an attempt to
767.
by fny 4y ago
The question is not whether he's been successful. He has been, the question is whether this is the peak valuation akin to Cisco during dotcom and whether he is over leveraged at this point.
768.
by fny 4y ago
It maximizes his chance of survival either way. The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices. - 60% chance you get fired either by Musk or investors if you don't turn the ship. - 40%
769.
by fny 4y ago
Fed unwind + lack of natural resources + Russia are the culprits. Really the worst of all possibilities. I want to extend my heartfelt sadness to those of you in the Eurozone. This must be an incredibly painful time.
770.
by fny 4y ago
Dotcom bubble friends. BITO ETF at the top to unload VC capital onto a bag holding public.
771.
by fny 4y ago
Both authors appear squeaky clean though from prestigious institutions. They've published about several other carcinogens throughout their careers and have appear to have no trouble with funding. I'm not sure why they'd be in
772.
by fny 4y ago
We just had a super exponential rise in equity prices for what its worth. Hence the bubble.
773.
by fny 4y ago
Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coup
774.
by fny 4y ago
This is the exact same phenomenon as with the stock market. Yields progressively moving towards zero means more and more leverage driving PE ratios and prices to extremes. Given that we've rediscovered fiscal stimulus and inflation as
775.
by fny 4y ago
What are typical yields you're expecting to give shareholders?
776.
by fny 4y ago
The irony of these ibonds is that the payments will contribute to even more inflation.
777.
by fny 4y ago
I'm 5'4" my fiance is 5'6". Stop thinking about it and grow a pair. It pays off. I had a lot of anxiety too when I started dating. Just act like its not a issue and the right girl will too.
778.
by fny 5y ago
Take risks in life, but not ones that are too big to recover from.
779.
Pyrolyze – Converting Waste to Power(pyrolyze.com)
1 points by fny 5y ago|0 comments
780.
by fny 5y ago
Here's one: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/7/13/saupload_r...

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