fny

51 ms·

721.
by fny 4y ago
1. The crowd that bids up bitcoin and tech stocks do so with leverage. 2. Leverage becomes more expensive with higher rates. 3. The same crowd owns both assets (e.g. Bitcoin and Tesla) 4. Qs are low yield assets with high projected future c
722.
by fny 4y ago
Naive question: Isn't the easiest way to prevent an general purpose AI from taking over the world to not make a general purpose AI?
723.
by fny 4y ago
Stagflation?
724.
by fny 4y ago
The environment right now is very different than a few years ago. Risk is way higher right now. Reward is even more questionable.
725.
by fny 4y ago
Congrats! But be very careful about the start up you're working for. Make sure they have enough cash to survive the next 4-5 years and have a steady revenue stream.
726.
by fny 4y ago
> "don't try to leverage friendships for personal economic gain" Aristotle identifies three types of friendships. 1. Friendships of utility, the types you exploit for gain 2. Friendships of pleasure, the types you exploit
727.
by fny 4y ago
The use of emojis to determine sentiment is incredibly clever. > The DeepThroat model is able to generate voices of varying degrees of emotion despite never having been exposed to emotive data of the character during training. Furthermor
728.
by fny 4y ago
Mark 3:24: If a kingdom is divided against itself, it cannot stand. Polarization will kill America.
729.
BlockFi is raising a down round at $1B valuation: sources(theblockcrypto.com)
8 points by fny 4y ago|1 comments
730.
by fny 4y ago
It's pretty clear to me that when liquidity runs rampant, valuation doesn't matter, instead momentum and herding take over. How else do you justify a 400% increase in ARKK and a collapse that occurred inline with fiscal and moneta
731.
by fny 4y ago
If you still think EMH is valid after this cycle, I have a monorail to sell you.
732.
by fny 4y ago
Most important thing everyone needs to understand about equity comp right now: most 2021 rounds overvalued all startup by significant multiples. While equities have corrected dramatically, the revaluation for startups will only occur when t
733.
by fny 4y ago
Base effects are also an issue.
734.
by fny 4y ago
The nature of the stimulus itself doesn't matter. What matters is the total size. The money always ends up leaking into commodities until the economy chokes. Trump spent way too much money, and then Biden spent even more. We had $1T of
735.
Energy Crisis: Shortages Amid Plenty (1973)(nytimes.com)
2 points by fny 4y ago|0 comments
736.
by fny 4y ago
I'm sending you articles pre 2022 from various sources just to make the point these effects were well understood and foreseen before the Ukraine war. While I include articles here about Biden's spending, it's worth noting Tru
737.
by fny 4y ago
This true, but it's actually not the proximate cause for higher food prices: excess stimulus and higher energy prices are. 1. Government spent $1T. 2. Fed made it stupidly cheap to borrow money. 3. We have under invested in the oil and
738.
by fny 4y ago
Something to this effect. Use borrowed money to buy more assets. In reality, this is terrible advice if you can't service the interest. It's a scheme that worked in a low rate environment, but likely will no longer be viable.
739.
by fny 4y ago
Yup. The most brutal environments I've ever worked in canned design folk very quickly once a cost crunch arrived. Some startups would even can designers first to save cash.
740.
by fny 4y ago
Money was cheap then: it's not anymore. Default risk has finally reared its ugly head.
741.
by fny 4y ago
There actually was a very good piece about this a while back that many here criticized... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29698436 Mind you, Cathie Wood and Bill Huang and Masayoshi Son and Tiger are all levered beta p
742.
by fny 4y ago
Before you all clamor over organics, I'm going to leave some evidence to ponder. The food shortages in Sri Lanka are primarily due to ditching industrial agriculture in favor of organic: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022&#
743.
by fny 4y ago
This a thousand times. The more nefarious hacks are done by state actors and professional groups. For script kiddies, it's mostly for the lulz.
744.
by fny 4y ago
Slack is owned by Salesforce. My point is that big co revenue will get hit with start up drop-off.
745.
by fny 4y ago
It will... think of how many startups use AWS, Google Cloud, Tableau, Slack, or Microsoft products. Our industry is incestuous.
746.
by fny 4y ago
Beware. The company you work for may be profiting from companies that play musical chairs with exit liquidity.
747.
by fny 4y ago
Oh, I'm also going to add that bear markets typically have a lot of brutal rallies. We had one in march as part of the rotation from tech into value stocks. We're probably about to witness a second. Bear markets typically have sev
748.
by fny 4y ago
Hint: it's a lot worse.
749.
by fny 4y ago
While many do not believe it's true, timing the market is possible and its a skill. *Find good active managers that have a track record of positive returns and low losses.* While they did not beat the index in the last decade, I'm
750.
by fny 4y ago
We've already reached this point. Hence Tesla $1T and shitcoin et al... You're watching the unwind.

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