evjrob

4 ms·

1.
by evjrob 2y ago
This blog seems to be a pretty blatant rip off of the autodidax page in the JAX documentation: https://jax.readthedocs.io/en/latest/autodidax.html
2.
by evjrob 6y ago
I wrote a bit about it in a blog post over the summer: http://everettsprojects.com/2020/08/18/modeling-the-nhl-bett... There are other posts on my blog about this project. There are links directly to them in
3.
by evjrob 6y ago
The model is implemented in PyMC3 and runs daily as a batch job. The model state and predictions are stored in DynamoDB. Early each morning this batch job loads the previous day's posterior as priors, fetches the results for the games
4.
by evjrob 6y ago
BayesBet: https://bayesbet.everettsprojects.com/ It's a probabilistic programming powered hockey game prediction model. It hasn't been performing too badly this season! https://twitter.com/hockeyst
5.
by evjrob 6y ago
This rings true from my experience as a data scientist for a non-tech compay. I spend more time doing expectation management than ML work. This seems to hold true whether we're trying to use ML on a new and novel problem statement, or
6.
by evjrob 6y ago
I think it's clear that humans at least try to pick out the causal factors, and reason causally about the outcomes of specific actions. Non human animals do too; they can learn to take specific actions for food rewards in a Skinner Box
7.
by evjrob 7y ago
True, but tight oil production that was previously though to be impossible to extract economically has more than offset losses in conventional production. Peak oil predictions of decades past presumed this could only happen when oil prices
8.
by evjrob 7y ago
Extracting oil from shale reservoirs was though to be too difficult and expensive to ever really flood the market like this. Turns out it wasn't.
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by evjrob 7y ago
The point lalaland1125 is making is that the equations of motion are the existing superior model in this scenario.
10.
by evjrob 9y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if these speech to text models are susceptible to black box attacks in the same way that image classifiers are: https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.07277