dougmwne

15 ms·

151.
by dougmwne 3y ago
We certainly don’t seem capable of solving climate change on our own. If we built an aligned AGI, we could just have it invent cold fusion for us.
152.
by dougmwne 3y ago
You are dreaming. This was all clearly led by the Quora CEO. The most likely outcome is that he will agree to sell OpenAI to himself, not release valuable IP into the public domain.
153.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Today we just passed 2C of warming. So possibly we very much do need AGI.
154.
by dougmwne 3y ago
No, I don’t think there’s any grand conspiracy, but certainly MS was interested in leapfrogging Google by capturing the value from OpenAI from day one. As things began to fall apart there MS had vast amounts of money to throw at people to b
155.
by dougmwne 3y ago
It’s not a conspiracy theory, just economic incentives of MS CEO, Quora CEO, and every employee who would rather get rich than work at a nonprofit. The nonprofit structure was in no one’s interest except for a very small cohort of AI Doome
156.
by dougmwne 3y ago
And where will their compute come from to continue to run their expensive models and serve their customers? From the company that just stole all their employees?
157.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Stranger things have happened. Maybe in a decade or two if Sam stays at MSFT? It does not seem like his profile, but people can change.
158.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Not at the moment. In fact, with 650 employees signed onto the quit letter so far, there’s unlikely to be an OpenAI by the end of the week. Microsoft is not going anywhere so it would be safe to rely on them.
159.
by dougmwne 3y ago
I suspect it’s a basic corporate pillaging of a nonprofit that accidentally created something of gigantic value. MS wanted the company, but Quora has its own interest and stood in the way. Now MS will get part of the employees and Quora wil
160.
by dougmwne 3y ago
It seems clear now that it was releasing GTPs store which the Quora CEO saw as a direct competitor to Poe. Adam D'Angelo had a massive conflict of interest and should have resigned like Elon had done years earlier when Tesla started it
161.
by dougmwne 3y ago
I think the majority of talent will move to Microsoft and Microsoft will continue on its current strategy of stuffing better and better models into every product. I think the Quora CEO will absorb the remainder of OpenAI and continue his ow
162.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Even more interesting considering that Elon left OpenAI’s board when Tesla started developing Autopilot as it was seen as a conflict of interest.
163.
by dougmwne 3y ago
I think it means that the Twitterverse got it wrong from the beginning. It wasn’t Ilya and his safety faction that did in OpenAI, it was Quora’s Adam D'Angelo and his competing Poe app. Ilya must have been successfully pressured and as
164.
by dougmwne 3y ago
(Rips off mask) Wow, it was the Quora CEO all along! So this was never about safety or any such bullshit. It’s because GTPs store was in direct competition with Poe!?
165.
by dougmwne 3y ago
It probably is a good thing, not because Ilya is going to safeguard humanity’s future, but because it’s better to have a very competitive field rather than one break away winner. No lone genius will invent AGI. It will be a collective effor
166.
by dougmwne 3y ago
What did they win exactly? This is far from the only effort to develop AI models. They were a leader for a time, but seem unlikely to continue in that position.
167.
by dougmwne 3y ago
They may be king of the ash pile. Trust seems to have been broken with investors, Microsoft, the staff and the developer community at large. I expect them to continue to be relevant, but just one of the chorus, no longer the leader.
168.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Because he gets to direct one of the most important chess pieces in the whole of Silicon Valley. That’s ample justification.
169.
by dougmwne 3y ago
The hardware is in the hands of Microsoft, Google and Amazon. The IP is in the heads of top AI researchers. Whether any of these methods are patentable is an open question since it’s all secret sauce and once the model weights are trained
170.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Riddle me this: what is an AI research lab without access to exascale compute? Who’s cloud infrastructure do they depend on fully right now?
171.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Yeah I read that and it really came off like a salty engineer who was tired of being pushed by the exec team to crank out more business value. Sounds like this person’s position is that OpenAI should have been a cozy little research lab whe
172.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Ilya just self-immolated the hottest company of the decade with an 80 billion dollar valuation, all to make a point that he thinks AGI is too close and that safety needs to come first before all else. That’s quite the statement!
173.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Clearly they will have a new AI startup by Monday.
174.
by dougmwne 3y ago
It’s quite rare for these board communications to say anything of substance at all. You let the PR folks work their magic and manage the narrative. This reads like 4 people out of their depth desperately trying to justify themselves. I woul
175.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Sure, the investors own the company and the board answers to them. Nonprofits are significantly disconnected from their own financial incentives. I have witnessed it at every nonprofit I have worked for.
176.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Thermonuclear winter is more likely at this point. 4 AI safety believers that formed a board majority just got spooked.
177.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Ooof, I would sell personally unless they manage to seize control of OpenAI by Monday.
178.
by dougmwne 3y ago
The board does and they are not supposed to have a financial stake in the non-profit. Usually they just vote their friends on. Welcome to the loony tunes that is nonprofit management. Clearly Microsoft staked its whole product roadmap on 4
179.
by dougmwne 3y ago
I think this strengthens my theory that the AI safety true believers wrestled control away from the entrepreneurs. The Open AI board letter, representing just 4 people, screams butt hurt and personal disagreements. Microsoft, who just finis
180.
by dougmwne 3y ago
Not possible. It’s well known that the training data was not public domain. OpenAI was in the process of securing private agreements for more training data. They likely trained GPT-4 on every word ever written in a book, newspaper, website

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