dougmwne

55 ms·

691.
by dougmwne 4y ago
Consider the possibility that Google is politically incapable of launching an advanced AI that disrupts its only real cash cow, search. If they were to launch this perfected GPT clone, what if their Adsense revenues dropped by 10x? Monetizi
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by dougmwne 4y ago
> There's no recognition that there are tasks that a language model is just fundamentally unsuitable for. I’m really not sure where you get that from. I think the best we can say is that they are currently unsuitable. Yes, today the
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I really think that’s behind a lot of the negativity I see on HN. This tech is threatening, to jobs as we know them and maybe eventually to our sense of self. I view it like the introduction of computers into the workplace. Many people were
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I think you have really come to the wrong conclusion. I don’t know how much impact this tech will ultimately have, but it is extremely capable and surprising. It might not be the same as a reliable expert or highly regarded textbook, but it
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Sure, what’s the difference between empathy and the behavior of empathy. We would say it’s how a person “feels”, a qualia. How to make highly processed sand experience qualia is an ongoing area of research. Maybe the sand already experience
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Commenter is saying that it could be possible to get to the same outcome but through a different mechanism. So maybe if we do invent an AGI, it will be able to do all the things a human can do, but the underlying mechanism will not resemble
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I woke up this morning realizing I hadn’t seen any press talking about foreclosures in awhile so looked up the US stats. They are at incredibly low levels. Banks have clearly become very conservative about the loan products they are offerin
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Would a generative model that can output both text and images of thinking brain scans be more convincing? I’m not saying you are incorrect, just pointing out that we’re not exactly sure what we are looking at in those brain scans anyway. I
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Yes, I am older than that. I truly feel for a lot of the younger people who came of age during pandemic isolation and raised by YouTubers. I work with some of them and they are not having an easy adjustment into adulthood. Good on you for p
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Those people have lots of debt in the form of home, car and student loans.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
At least you know I am human. As for the rest, hard to say, because we really don’t know what puts the G in the I inside the coconut. Hard to measure internal thought and understanding. Hard for you to even prove I have it.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Absolutely. Nearly everyone I know left college doe-eyed and ready to dedicate a piece of their soul to their shiny new job. Everyone learned otherwise one person at a time. Some worked for “we’re all a family” companies and were able to re
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I have paid for GTP-3 in the past. I think it’s incredible and likely worth it to many people. I wouldn’t currently pay for it because I don’t have a use case that requires generating a lot of template code or communication, but I did, I wo
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by dougmwne 4y ago
But here we are with another fantastic jobs report. Hiring did not stop. The jobs are out there!
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by dougmwne 4y ago
That point I was trying to make is that if the economy were bad enough, people would vote out the incumbent government in droves. The vote is a safety value that prevents riots and armed revolution. Autocracies are brittle to changing publi
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Exactly! Hyperinflation is terrible and economy destroying. But I think a good argument can be made that moderate inflation, much higher than the typical 3% target is very good for most people.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Pretty cool that GTP is hitting such a mainstream moment. Everyone I talk with about it has glazed over for years, but I guess this is finally a demo that breaks through. 100m users if reports are accurate. Of course regular folks are going
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I am seeing significantly lower numbers which I look at the 2020 SSA data. I question if Investopedia got their number right. 5th percentile would appear to be about 150k. https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=20
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Inflation benefits people in debt and light labor markets benefit people who earn a wage. It hurts people who already have accumulated capital in the form of bonds and stocks. The Fed acts to protect the interests of the very rich, at the e
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Well it’s possible! Solid user traffic numbers are hard to come by these days, but the anecdotes about search result pages full of trash keep piling up. I doubt my usage has changed much, but I’m ripe for poaching over to a better product.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
You can reach back out to the recruiters who previously messaged you ask ask what their openings look like now. Apply to jobs, let your contacts know you are looking. Even if the market is slow, there are always openings.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Is this officially Microsoft’s second GTP powered product after Copilot?
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by dougmwne 4y ago
Clearly some descendant of ChatGTP will eventually be free. Moore’s law will guarantee it. The current price to generate a response is just a few cents, so that will soon enough be fractions of a cent.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I agree, it is a bit of an odd moment. On the one hand, you have the normal amount of hype and bullshit. The people calling out that hype are right of course, as they have been right about 1000 other vaporware demos and outright marketing l
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I live in a city with a lot of Ukrainian refugees. I have a chance to see a lot of art and music from young people fleeing the war. It is POWERFUL. Paradise lost.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
These are not level 5 as traditionally defined. They are level 3 vehicles with a broken safety driver that sits in a call center and can’t actually control the vehicle when they get into trouble.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
The cheating students who know how to use the classifier will be the big winners.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
It doesn’t take too many years of negative growth while every other major country is growing for the UK to end up in a vastly diminished position.
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I suspect the LLM will end up being just one piece of an eventual general AI, just like the language center of our brain is just one region. You could design a complex of models that cover language, memory, real-time data, sensing, formal l
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by dougmwne 4y ago
I think that excellent advice, especially for someone going into a high paid field that could save most of what they earn.

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