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I woke up this morning realizing I hadn’t seen any press talking about foreclosures in awhile so looked up the US stats. They are at incredibly low levels. Bank

I woke up this morning realizing I hadn’t seen any press talking about foreclosures in awhile so looked up the US stats. They are at incredibly low levels. Banks have clearly become very conservative about the loan products they are offering and seem to be sticking to very safe fixed rate mortgages. I honestly don’t see a foreclosure spike happening any time soon. These things take a while to build and we are starting at the floor. Unemployment is at incredible lows. The economy is running hot, but no recession or housing bust seems to be in view. Maybe later. Likely eventually.

soperj 4y ago
That's how all recessions start.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  It's also how non-recessions continue.
  - soperj 4y ago
    So basically useless data then for determining whether a recession is coming.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > That's how all recessions start. Most recessions are preceded by several months in which unemployment is rising significantly from the relative low. Its probably the most reliable recession predictor (visually, looking at a graph, the oscillations between the closely-spaced 1980 & 1981 recessions seems to be the only case of a recession not having that signal, and there are very few cases of a clear multimonth rise after the (usually shortly post-recession) recession-associated peak that do not signal another recession.