diiq

8 ms·

31.
by diiq 5y ago
I believe we're back up. Thanks for your patience.
32.
by diiq 5y ago
Yep, it's down. Y'all have just about tipped over my baby redis instance with a few thousand project simulations all at once. Should be back as soon as I scale 'er up.
33.
by diiq 5y ago
It's not better; it's almost exactly that, as detailed in many comments below. I choose slightly different thresholds -- 75% is not very high, you'll be wrong one time in 4 -- but that's the approach. If you're alre
34.
by diiq 5y ago
Haha, you're fine! It's pretty much just me behind the curtain. (And honestly, sometimes I worry the UI is too slick -- that it will give people expectations the tool won't live up to. But I have too much fun making fancy b
35.
by diiq 5y ago
Vistimo (the full version at https://www.vistimo.com ) does too. It turns out the project management space is full of neat tools with clever abilities, but it's very hard for a team to switch between those tools. It's
36.
by diiq 5y ago
About 5 years ago, when I first started using this method, I gave a talk about it that went into detail about how to do it, and the benefits. I did a live demo showing how well it modeled the variance even for really simple tasks like &quot
37.
by diiq 5y ago
Once you enter tasks, and estimate at least one, you should see a link to view your "Projections". (Fetching those projections uses websockets, so you may need to refresh if you're behind a particularly restrictive firewall.)
38.
by diiq 5y ago
Haha, at least tell me which external tool you'd like me to add an import from, and I'll be happy to add it to my backlog.
39.
by diiq 5y ago
Fair enough! There's more than one way to skin a cat. This way was easier for me, and has additional benefits as described.
40.
by diiq 5y ago
Not at the moment. This is the dream, but it's statistically much harder than it seems! For each task you have one distribution, and one sample. What's the likelihood that sample was actually from a different distribution? Insti
41.
by diiq 5y ago
Once I took a few steps down the simulation path, it seemed so easy and powerful that I didn't look back. There is some computational cost, but for me it's more than made up for by how easy it is to, for instance, say "I&#x27
42.
by diiq 5y ago
Thanks! I totally agree, personally I want more hierarchy; but user testing with milestones was pretty rough. Vistimo proper ( https://www.vistimo.com ) is less slick-looking, but has milestones and story-mapping and bugs and enh
43.
by diiq 5y ago
Thanks, will fix.
44.
by diiq 5y ago
I promise, this is the result of real constraints! Monte carlo is used because of the limitations of analysis when using log-normal distributions. Normal distributions can be summed algebraically; log normal distributions cannot. https:&#x
45.
by diiq 5y ago
I think Steve McConnell was calling for statistical modelling even earlier than that. Definitely not a new idea! I'm working on the assumption that it hasn't caught on because it's a pain to do without proper tooling; but it&
46.
by diiq 5y ago
You're not wrong; normal distributions are OK but not ideal for estimating durations -- it can lead to weird artifacts if you don't restrict yourself to just the mean. ( https://blog.vistimo.com/post/16954668
47.
by diiq 5y ago
Haha, look closer! These buttons have a continuous curvature profile, rather than a rounded rectangle. It's a big part of what makes them feel so "70's calculator" chic :)
48.
by diiq 5y ago
You're right! Ensemble forecasting is great! Vistimo proper ( https://www.vistimo.com ) does both -- it gets individual high/low estimates from multiple people, and creates a combined distribution from all of them (thoug
49.
by diiq 5y ago
There's an "unknown unknowns" factor specifically for including guesses about new features or last-minute changes. And the great thing about being able to run estimates quickly is that you can tell the CEO how much their new
50.
by diiq 5y ago
The video on the How It Works page ( https://quotes.vistimo.com/how-it-works ) has footage of every step you'll take to run an estimate. If you mean you want technical details of the math involved, https://blo
51.
Show HN: Monte Carlo simulation for predicting project timelines(quotes.vistimo.com)
136 points by diiq 5y ago|86 comments
52.
by diiq 6y ago
The agile manifesto is so terse and carefully written -- every word is there for a reason -- and so many people ignore the words they find inconvenient. "Responding to change over following a plan" specifically says "over&quo
53.
by diiq 6y ago
It's a=just a standard welt pocket on an angle. Find a welt pocket tutorial you like and follow it, but on the outseam :) The only trick is that the inseam has to be open when you add the pocket to the outseam. I haven't made a pa
54.
by diiq 6y ago
Neat! This would be pretty useful to me if the settings persisted between sessions -- I don't have the time to fine-tune my camera for each meeting, but if I could tune it once and use it again and again, that'd be worth it.
55.
by diiq 6y ago
You're right, I think a yoke might work better than darts to break up that space.
56.
by diiq 6y ago
I drafted from scratch; not shown here (for fear of distracting from the pockets) are the high waist, button fly, and swallowtail back that make them deeply unfashionable :) But you could easily add this to almost any pants pattern, so long
57.
by diiq 6y ago
I did.
58.
by diiq 6y ago
Absolutely in the works, but I'm not rich enough to make prototypes in superfine :)
59.
by diiq 6y ago
If you don't already sew, I'd start by making a pillowcase or a dice bag, and then maybe a shirt or something. Take some time to learn about fabric materials and weaves. Pants are notoriously hard to fit, and if you're also
60.
by diiq 6y ago
Could be. But the only demographic I named was "people who can wear cargo pants to work", so you kind of set me up for a "no true scotsman". There are events, and clients, to which I wouldn't wear cargo pants, there

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