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You're right! Ensemble forecasting is great! Vistimo proper (https://www.vistimo.com https://www.vistimo.com) does both -- it gets individual high/low estimates
by diiq 5y ago
You're right! Ensemble forecasting is great! Vistimo proper (https://www.vistimo.com https://www.vistimo.com) does both -- it gets individual high/low estimates from multiple people, and creates a combined distribution from all of them (though each estimate is a log normal, not normal, since it's a time estimate).
But Vistimo is a full project management tool; that space is full and switching project management tools is expensive, so it's hard to get people to adopt.
Vistimo Quotes is a much lighter-weight way to get many of the same benefits without having to talk your whole team into signing up.
- adam 5y agoI'm curious if you allow the project to enter actuals after the fact, then you can compare them to individuals/aggregate estimates so you know how biased your model/individuals/the organization is on these types of estimation efforts. You could give that as feedback as an additional service: "You're constantly overconfident on X type tasks..."
- diiq 5y agoNot at the moment. This is the dream, but it's statistically much harder than it seems! For each task you have one distribution, and one sample. What's the likelihood that sample was actually from a different distribution? Instinctively it feels easy to judge "your usually closer to the worst-case than the best-case" but mathematically it's not so straightforward, especially when the estimate doesn't include sick days, splitting time with other projects, etc, but both the projection and the reality do.