diab0lic

9 ms·

61.
by diab0lic 3y ago
Being a multi millionaire isn’t really relevant here. If you’re not the type of person who spends $4k on a tech toy then you’ll have a hard time justifying it.
62.
by diab0lic 3y ago
> Japanese non-disposible saws seem quite beefy and more comparable to western saws in thickness. I’ve got a handful of forged 240mm ryoba annd dozuki in my shop that are notably thinner than disposables according to my digital calipers
63.
by diab0lic 3y ago
I have no take on whether or not this specific situation is priced in or not. However I’d challenge you on the second comment. I’ve found Taleb’s advice very actionable but it did take a lot of thinking about it to move from abstract though
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by diab0lic 3y ago
Probably not but they’ll have a harder time finding capital the next time they need to borrow. It is generally unwise to default on debt if you think you may need to borrow again.
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by diab0lic 3y ago
The HN take is highly sensationalized. It’s a great place to work with fantastic work / life balance, great pay, and friendly coworkers. I was there for nearly a decade and would never describe it as toxic.
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by diab0lic 3y ago
> The appropriate layman's forecast of a recession within the next year is something like a constant 11 %. I'm willing to bet this outperforms most "predictions" out there. I think we agree here but the unspoken measu
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by diab0lic 3y ago
Much of the discussion here including the linked article fail to make an important distinction between domains. Prediction can be done quite effectively on thin tailed processes. A lot of the counter examples listed in the comments here are
68.
by diab0lic 3y ago
> We got him a pretty beefy Alienware so he wouldn’t be tied to the cluster GPUs. Probably this.
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by diab0lic 3y ago
It’s a bit more complicated than that, it’s also a bit more complicated than what I’m about to say. Functionally speaking when a company issues a dividend of $x the stock price S will drop to S-x on the ex dividend date. This makes sense as
70.
by diab0lic 3y ago
It can both serve a function (help build extended relationships) and be something people don’t want to do because those relationships can be severed in an instant thanks to at will employment.
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by diab0lic 3y ago
Barter economies also make it next to impossible to save for the the future. Most goods produced by common are perishable and therefore one cannot be “saved” in any meaningful way. This keeps people at sustenance level and working until the
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by diab0lic 3y ago
It is anything but strict. In fact they’ll help you circumvent it. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/27/business/binance-cftc-law...
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by diab0lic 3y ago
Binance from the article most certainly does: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/27/business/binance-cftc-law...
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by diab0lic 4y ago
I suspect the post you’re replying to disagrees with the 1% figure.
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by diab0lic 4y ago
From the perspective of the bank this isn’t a black swan event, from the perspective of a smaller farmer or winery it is certainly a black swan event.
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by diab0lic 4y ago
Everyone withdrawing when they have money gets $1, everyone trying to withdraw after insolvency hits gets $0. If this were to occur the secondary market would bear some small but nonzero value representing the off chance that it is a liquid
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by diab0lic 4y ago
The commenter likely meant “fail whale”[0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter#Outages
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by diab0lic 4y ago
I like your explanation for why the word might be drift prone but I think the explanation is much simpler: In contemporary social and political conversations disagreement isn’t an acute occurrence. People who share even a slightly different
79.
by diab0lic 4y ago
I can’t tell if you’re serious or sarcastic but there’s no way my mother or father would be able to do this. My wife could but would but would find it annoying enough to feign ignorance and make me do it if I told her it had to be done. I’v
80.
by diab0lic 4y ago
> All that's really happening, as someone else on HN aptly put it, is we're speed-running the history of finance out again in crypto-land. I’d be surprised if the person who said this meant it was a good thing. The sentence lit
81.
by diab0lic 4y ago
There is a lot of missing information in their probability of binary events presented. Presumably they polled N forecasters and are presenting an x/N prediction. The fact that each forecaster is estimating in a continuous space and the
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by diab0lic 4y ago
I don’t generally place much stock in forecasts but… I’m unaware of what the 8 questions were last year but this years includes a few non binary outcomes. If this was the case last year then their performance was a fair bit better than rand
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by diab0lic 4y ago
I am a little disappointed to see that the results of “super forecasters” in the economist and on the underlying Good Judgement open website does not present a 95% credible interval, or even a good old fashioned confidence interval. Would l
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by diab0lic 4y ago
Kelly maximizes the long run returns as the number of bets approaches infinity. If the variance is extremely high on f(x) and you get a single bet it can be rational to go very heavy. (Here x is the Bernoulli with p=0.75 and f(x) the payoff
85.
by diab0lic 4y ago
> [Even] in [our] darkest days, Tether has never once failed to honor a redemption request from any of [our] verified customers. Bold statement by tether given that they, if I recall correctly had a very extended period in their past (mo
86.
by diab0lic 4y ago
I’m not saying people sell these for insurance. One of the two options in this spread IS insurance. A short call spread is someone selling calls (option A in the link) and buying insurance on said sale (option B in the link).
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by diab0lic 4y ago
Nobody ever claimed they did, but it is an investment, with insurance. If you want something more financial a short vertical spread [0] is a strategy in which you are purchasing insurance on the risk (investment) you just took (made). There
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by diab0lic 4y ago
Plenty of good investments are insured. There are whole classes of investment that simply would not be sane to do without insurance. Taking an example from every day life: People buy investment properties and most of the time they insure th
89.
by diab0lic 4y ago
Right? Netflix is churning out a profit with a ratio on the interval [20, 25] depending on the day. I really don’t see how it belongs in the same category as the other two who don’t have a finite P/E ratio.
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by diab0lic 4y ago
It makes it more expensive for those using it, thus making alternatives more appealing.

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